GENETIC PROGRAMMING AND ITS APPLICATION IN REAL‐TIME RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic programming (GP), a relatively new evolutionary technique, is demonstrated in this study to evolve codes for the solution of problems. First, a simple example in the area of symbolic regression is considered. GP is then applied to real‐time runoff forecasting for the Orgeval catchment in France. In this study, GP functions as an error updating scheme to complement a rainfall‐runoff model, MIKE11/NAM. Hourly runoff forecasts of different updating intervals are performed for forecast horizons of up to nine hours. The results show that the proposed updating scheme is able to predict the runoff quite accurately for all updating intervals considered and particularly for updating intervals not exceeding the time of concentration of the catchment. The results are also compared with those of an earlier study, by the World Meteorological Organization, in which autoregression and Kalman filter were used as the updating methods. Comparisons show that GP is a better updating tool for real‐time flow forecasting. Another important finding from this study is that nondimensionalizing the variables enhances the symbolic regression process significantly.     

Female-biased sex allocation of offspring by an <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus</Emphasis> mouse in an unstable environment

We investigated the effects of population fluctuation on the offspring’s sex allocation by a weakly polygynous mouse, Apodemus argenteus, for 3 years. In acorn-poor seasons, heavier mothers invested more in sons, and lighter mothers invested more in daughters. In acorn-rich seasons, heavier mothers invested more in daughters, and lighter mothers invested more in sons. Maternal body condition and litter size affected the sex allocation. Furthermore, there was a maternal investment trade-off between a son’s birth mass and the number of daughters. Based upon the effect of population fluctuation on the lifetime reproductive success of each sex, we proposed the new “safe bet hypothesis”. This hypothesis predicts that frequent and unpredictable change in female distribution, which is often caused by abrupt fall in food condition, favors female-biased maternal investment to offspring by polygynous mammals and is applicable to many small mammals inhabiting in unstable environments.     

Population maintenance of the short-lived shrub Sambucus in a deciduous forest

This study quantitatively clarifies the life history of a shrub, Sambucus racemosa ssp. sieboldiana, in an old-growth forest, the Ogawa Forest Reserve, Japan, by a demographic approach using a projection matrix model that incorporates interactions between demographic parameters and canopy height dynamics. S. racemosa is a common deciduous shrub in central Japan and is known to grow predominantly at forest edges or roadsides. This indicates that it is a highly light-demanding species, and occurrence in gaps in old-growth stands suggests its "fugitive," gap-dependent life history in old-growth forests. We found that one distinctive feature of this species was that its seedlings can survive well in shaded conditions by alternating stems every year like perennial herb species. Matrix model analyses demonstrated that S. racemosa can continuously regenerate under the present disturbance regime of this forest and is highly adaptable to the structural dynamics of the old-growth forest. The maturity of S. racemosa shrubs depends on their size, and nearly all (>90%) of the mature (reproducing) individuals were found in gaps or near gaps. But wide seed dispersal by birds and the ability to form both seed banks and seedling banks, the latter of which has been regarded as a common characteristic of shade-tolerant climax species, probably increase the species' chances to encounter canopy gaps. Dynamic-canopied matrix models showed that the greatest elasticity is with shaded seedling survival. The frequent stem alternation of shaded seedlings often makes the growth rate negative, but the survival rate of seedlings in low light awaiting new gap creation is remarkably high (0.93 yr(-1)). The lower survival rate of the larger individuals and smaller minimum size to start reproduction than other canopy or subcanopy shade-tolerant species indicate that S. racemosa has the potential to reproduce before the closure of the encountered gaps and to complete its life history rapidly.     

Anaerobic biodegradation of 4-alkylphenols in a paddy soil microcosm supplemented with nitrate

Anaerobic degradation of phenol, p-cresol, 4-n-propylphenol (n-PP), 4-i-propylphenol (i-PP), 4-n-butylphenol (n-BP) and 4-sec-butylphenol (sec-BP) was observed in a paddy soil supplemented with nitrate. We detected the metabolites 4′-hydroxypropiophenone (HPP) from n-PP, 4-i-propenylphenol from i-PP, and 4-(1-butenyl)phenol and 4′-hydroxybutyrophenone (HBP) from n-BP. Compared with the original soils, Betaproteobacteria became predominant in the microcosm during the degradation of phenol and p-cresol whereas no remarkable change was observed in the community degrading propylphenols and butylphenols. The microcosm, however, did not degrade 4-t-butylphenol (t-BP), 4-t-octylphenol (t-OP) and 4-n-octylphenol (n-OP). Paddy soil supplemented with sulfate or iron (III) as electron acceptors did not degrade phenol and 4-alkylphenols with the exception of the degradation of p-cresol in sulfate-reducing conditions. It was demonstrated for the first time that anaerobic microbial degradation of alkylphenols, in a paddy soil supplemented with nitrate as an electron acceptor, occurred via oxidation of the alpha carbon in the alkyl chain.     

Investigation and modeling of diurnal variation in suburban ambient formaldehyde concentration

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a naturally occurring compound found in ambient air which can induce cancer and sick-building syndrome. It plays an important...     

Experimental and modeling studies on sorption and diffusion of radium in bentonite

The sorption and desorption behavior of radium on bentonite and purified smectite was investigated as a function of pH, ionic strength and liquid to solid ratio by batch experiments. The distribution coefficients (Kd) were in the range of 10(2) to > 10(4) ml g-1 and depended on ionic strength and pH. Most of sorbed Ra was desorbed by 1 M KCl. The results for purified smectite indicated that Ra sorption is dominated by ion exchange at layer sites of smectite, and surface complexation at edge sites may increase Ra sorption at higher pH region. Reaction parameters between Ra and smectite were determined based on an interaction model between smectite and groundwater. The reaction parameters were then used to explain the results of bentonite by considering dissolution and precipitation of minerals and soluble impurities. The dependencies of experimental Kd values on pH, ionic strength and liquid to solid ratio were qualitatively explained by the model. The modeling result for bentonite indicated that sorption of Ra on bentonite is dominated by ion exchange with smectite. The observed pH dependency was caused by changes of Ca concentration arising from dissolution and precipitation of calcite. Diffusion behavior of Ra in bentonite was also investigated as a function of dry density and ionic strength. The apparent diffusion coefficients (Da) obtained in compacted bentonite were in the range of 1.1 x 10(-11) to 2.2 x 10(-12) m2 s-1 and decreased with increasing in dry density and ionic strength. The Kd values obtained by measured effective diffusion coefficient (De) and modeled De were consistent with those by the sorption model in a deviation within one order of magnitude.     

Nest and maternal origin can influence morphology and locomotor performance of hatchling green turtles (Chelonia mydas) incubated in field nests

In numerous laboratory experiments involving the incubation of reptile eggs, both the maternal origin of eggs and the incubating environment (nest effect) have been demonstrated to influence hatchling phenotype. Although different hatchling phenotypes have been reported from natural nests, the separate effects of maternal origin and nest on hatchling phenotype in natural nests have not been demonstrated because in natural nests the two effects are confounded with each other. Here, we use a split clutch design to experimentally separate nest effects from maternal origin effects in field nests of green turtles (Chelonia mydas). We found both maternal origin and nest to influence hatchling morphology and locomotor performance in some but not all field nests. By using egg mass (maternal origin effect) and nest temperature (nest effect) in multiple regression analysis, we found maternal origin had a greater influence than nest temperature on the morphological attributes of hatchling mass and carapace size, but nest temperature had a greater influence than maternal origin on the performance attributes of self-righting time, self-righting propensity, swim thrust during the first 30 min of swimming, and power stroke rate during the first 30 min of swimming.     

Assessing high impacts of climate change: spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ecosystem services in northern Japan (Teshio River watershed)

Ecosystem services (ESs) provide information on the tendency of ecosystems to reach and form a state of equilibrium. The process of ES changes is important in order to identify the climate change-related causes that occur regionally to globally. ES-based management plays an important role in mitigation strategies for the negative impact of global climate change on ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate spatial characteristics and relationships among these multiple services from different spatial scales which could aid in multiple ES sustainable development from local to global scales. In this study, we developed a framework for analyzing the spatial characteristics and interactive relationships of multiple ESs. We analyzed the spatial distributions of six hydrological ESs that are important in the northernmost part of Japan (Teshio River watershed) by using hydrology and nutrient model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) under baseline climate conditions and climate change derived from the global circulation model (GCM). We then explored the spatial characteristic scales of ESs by multiscale analysis (lacunarity estimation) to reveal provision flow and spatial distribution characteristics for hydrological ESs. We observed a strong relationship between the spatial characteristics of land uses and ES provision. The spatial characteristics of individual hydrological ESs were totally different and had different spatial homogeneity and cluster (indicated by initial lacunarity index and lacunarity dimension). The results also showed trade-offs between inorganic nutrient retention (provision ESs) and organic nutrient and sediment retentions (regulating ESs), and synergies between organic nutrient retention and sediment retention under all climate change scenarios. The different stakeholders will take different mitigation programs (e.g., establishing riparian vegetation, planning nutrient management practices, and integrating climate change model into systematic conservation planning of ESs) to avoid negative impacts of climate change on ESs. Application of this proposed framework to study the spatial characteristics and relationships of hydrological ESs under climate change could provide understanding on the impact of climate change on ES changes and solutions to mitigate strategies to cope with those changes in the future.     

GENETIC PROGRAMMING: A NEW PARADIGM IN RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic Programming (GP) is a domain‐independent evolutionary programming technique that evolves computer programs to solve, or approximately solve, problems. To verify GP's capability, a simple example with known relation in the area of symbolic regression, is considered first. GP is then utilized as a flow forecasting tool. A catchment in Singapore with a drainage area of about 6 km² is considered in this study. Six storms of different intensities and durations are used to train GP and then verify the trained GP. Analysis of the GP induced rainfall and runoff relationship shows that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is consistent with the hydrologic process. The result shows that the runoff prediction accuracy of symbolic regression based models, measured in terms of root mean square error and correlation coefficient, is reasonably high. Thus, GP induced rainfall runoff relationships can be a viable alternative to traditional rainfall runoff models.