GENETIC PROGRAMMING AND ITS APPLICATION IN REAL‐TIME RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic programming (GP), a relatively new evolutionary technique, is demonstrated in this study to evolve codes for the solution of problems. First, a simple example in the area of symbolic regression is considered. GP is then applied to real‐time runoff forecasting for the Orgeval catchment in France. In this study, GP functions as an error updating scheme to complement a rainfall‐runoff model, MIKE11/NAM. Hourly runoff forecasts of different updating intervals are performed for forecast horizons of up to nine hours. The results show that the proposed updating scheme is able to predict the runoff quite accurately for all updating intervals considered and particularly for updating intervals not exceeding the time of concentration of the catchment. The results are also compared with those of an earlier study, by the World Meteorological Organization, in which autoregression and Kalman filter were used as the updating methods. Comparisons show that GP is a better updating tool for real‐time flow forecasting. Another important finding from this study is that nondimensionalizing the variables enhances the symbolic regression process significantly.     

Female-biased sex allocation of offspring by an <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus</Emphasis> mouse in an unstable environment

We investigated the effects of population fluctuation on the offspring’s sex allocation by a weakly polygynous mouse, Apodemus argenteus, for 3 years. In acorn-poor seasons, heavier mothers invested more in sons, and lighter mothers invested more in daughters. In acorn-rich seasons, heavier mothers invested more in daughters, and lighter mothers invested more in sons. Maternal body condition and litter size affected the sex allocation. Furthermore, there was a maternal investment trade-off between a son’s birth mass and the number of daughters. Based upon the effect of population fluctuation on the lifetime reproductive success of each sex, we proposed the new “safe bet hypothesis”. This hypothesis predicts that frequent and unpredictable change in female distribution, which is often caused by abrupt fall in food condition, favors female-biased maternal investment to offspring by polygynous mammals and is applicable to many small mammals inhabiting in unstable environments.     

Population maintenance of the short-lived shrub Sambucus in a deciduous forest

This study quantitatively clarifies the life history of a shrub, Sambucus racemosa ssp. sieboldiana, in an old-growth forest, the Ogawa Forest Reserve, Japan, by a demographic approach using a projection matrix model that incorporates interactions between demographic parameters and canopy height dynamics. S. racemosa is a common deciduous shrub in central Japan and is known to grow predominantly at forest edges or roadsides. This indicates that it is a highly light-demanding species, and occurrence in gaps in old-growth stands suggests its "fugitive," gap-dependent life history in old-growth forests. We found that one distinctive feature of this species was that its seedlings can survive well in shaded conditions by alternating stems every year like perennial herb species. Matrix model analyses demonstrated that S. racemosa can continuously regenerate under the present disturbance regime of this forest and is highly adaptable to the structural dynamics of the old-growth forest. The maturity of S. racemosa shrubs depends on their size, and nearly all (>90%) of the mature (reproducing) individuals were found in gaps or near gaps. But wide seed dispersal by birds and the ability to form both seed banks and seedling banks, the latter of which has been regarded as a common characteristic of shade-tolerant climax species, probably increase the species' chances to encounter canopy gaps. Dynamic-canopied matrix models showed that the greatest elasticity is with shaded seedling survival. The frequent stem alternation of shaded seedlings often makes the growth rate negative, but the survival rate of seedlings in low light awaiting new gap creation is remarkably high (0.93 yr(-1)). The lower survival rate of the larger individuals and smaller minimum size to start reproduction than other canopy or subcanopy shade-tolerant species indicate that S. racemosa has the potential to reproduce before the closure of the encountered gaps and to complete its life history rapidly.     

Anaerobic biodegradation of 4-alkylphenols in a paddy soil microcosm supplemented with nitrate

Anaerobic degradation of phenol, p-cresol, 4-n-propylphenol (n-PP), 4-i-propylphenol (i-PP), 4-n-butylphenol (n-BP) and 4-sec-butylphenol (sec-BP) was observed in a paddy soil supplemented with nitrate. We detected the metabolites 4′-hydroxypropiophenone (HPP) from n-PP, 4-i-propenylphenol from i-PP, and 4-(1-butenyl)phenol and 4′-hydroxybutyrophenone (HBP) from n-BP. Compared with the original soils, Betaproteobacteria became predominant in the microcosm during the degradation of phenol and p-cresol whereas no remarkable change was observed in the community degrading propylphenols and butylphenols. The microcosm, however, did not degrade 4-t-butylphenol (t-BP), 4-t-octylphenol (t-OP) and 4-n-octylphenol (n-OP). Paddy soil supplemented with sulfate or iron (III) as electron acceptors did not degrade phenol and 4-alkylphenols with the exception of the degradation of p-cresol in sulfate-reducing conditions. It was demonstrated for the first time that anaerobic microbial degradation of alkylphenols, in a paddy soil supplemented with nitrate as an electron acceptor, occurred via oxidation of the alpha carbon in the alkyl chain.     

Nitrogen footprints: Regional realities and options to reduce nitrogen loss to the environment

Ambio - Nitrogen (N) management presents a sustainability dilemma: N is strongly linked to energy and food production, but excess reactive N causes environmental pollution. The N footprint is an...     

Polyfluorinated telomers in indoor air of Japanese houses

The fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) have been detected in various environmental compartments, including indoor and outdoor air, in North America and Europe. In our previous studies, FTOHs were detected at a relative higher concentration in outdoor air in the Keihan (Kyoto–Osaka, one of the major industrial zones) area, Japan compared to reported data. The exposure level of FTOHs in indoor air in the Keihan area remains unclear. In the present study, indoor air FTOH concentrations were investigated using a passive air sampler containing activated carbon felts. The indoor air sampling was conducted in 49 households of the Keihan area, during winter and summer 2008. Most samples contained 6:2 FTOH, 8:2 FTOH, 10:2 FTOH and 8:2 FTOAc. The median concentration of 8:2 FTOH (5.84 ng m^?3) was highest among fluorotelomers, followed by those of 10:2 FTOH (1.12 ng m^?3), 6:2 FTOH (0.29 ng m^?3), and others. Significant correlations among fluorotelomers were observed in collected samples. The association between housing conditions and 8:2 FTOH concentrations showed that samples collected from bed rooms have higher 8:2 FTOH concentrations than those collected from other locations. In addition, samples collected in winter showed lower levels of 8:2 FTOH than those collected in summer. These findings suggest that 8:2 FTOH is the predominant component among fluorotelomers in indoor air, and that there are emission sources of fluorotelomers in indoor environments of the Keihan area. Further investigations into the origins of fluorotelomers are needed to evaluate indoor contamination with fluorotelomers.     

Distribution of inorganic bromine and metals during co-combustion of polycarbonate (BrPC) and high-impact polystyrene (BrHIPS) wastes containing brominated flame retardants (BFRs) with metallurgical dust

This study focused on the thermal degradation of polycarbonate (BrPC) and high-impact polystyrene (BrHIPS), containing different brominated flame retardants. The evolved inorganic bromine was utilized for the separation of metals present in electric arc furnace dust (EAFD). The thermal degradation of BrPC generated inorganic gaseous HBr (69%) and condensable Br₂ (31%). The bromine evolved from BrHIPS was detected almost entirely in a condensed phase as SbBr₃. When mixed with EAFD, the evolved inorganic bromine reacted immediately with the metallic components of zinc and lead, but not with iron. The best bromination efficiencies were obtained during the isothermal heating (80 min at 550 °C) of the mixtures at mass ratios of 6:1 and 9:1 w/w under oxidizing conditions. The achieved brominating rates reached 78 and 81% for zinc and 90 and 94% for lead in 6:1 and 9:1 BrPC:EAFD, respectively, and 47 and 65% for zinc and 67 and 63% for lead in 6:1 and 9:1 BrHIPS:EAFD, respectively. The oxidizing condition favored complete vaporization of the formed bromides.     

Very high concentrations of DDE and toxaphene residues in crocodiles from the Ord River, Western Australia: an investigation into possible endocrine disruption

Organochlorine pesticide concentrations, particularly those of the DDT family and of toxaphene, were measured by gas chromatography in samples of liver and body fat taken from Australian freshwater crocodiles Crocodylus johnstoni at three locations along the Ord River in Western Australia. The three sampling sites were the irrigation area, downstream of the irrigation area, and well upstream of the irrigation area; the last site serving as the control. DDT and toxaphene were applied in large and known quantities to cotton grown in the Ord Irrigation Area from 1964 to 1974. Thus the residues in the crocodile tissues are representative of the situation almost thirty years after the use of DDT and toxaphene ceased in the area. Very high concentrations of p,p'-DDE and toxaphene were found in the lipid-rich tissues that were examined. Livers and body fat from estuarine crocodiles Crocodylus porosus from the downstream site were also analysed. As p,p'-DDE and toxaphene are both known to be disruptive of endocrine systems, a range of blood parameters, including estradiol and testesterone concentrations, were also measured for all the animals studied. The ovaries and testes of the freshwater crocodiles were also examined histologically. There were no obvious effects on blood chemistry or gonad histology of the large burden of pesticides and their metabolites carried by exposed animals, although the limited number of samples and the variability of the breeding state of the animals examined may have masked possible effects. The isolation of the area, the accurately known applications of DDT and toxaphene, and the simplicity of the drainage system make the lower Ord River a unique natural laboratory for studying the long term breakdown and effects of pesticides applied in a tropical environment.     

Investigation and modeling of diurnal variation in suburban ambient formaldehyde concentration

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a naturally occurring compound found in ambient air which can induce cancer and sick-building syndrome. It plays an important...