Origins and fundamental concepts of the competing-risks problem

The history of problems dealing with competing risks is briefly outlined, beginning with Daniel Bernoulli's 1760 “Mémoir” on mortality due to smallpox and proceeding through the development of actuarial techniques and methods used in clinical research, reliability theory, population dynamics, and other areas of application. A probabilistic formulation of the theory of competing risks is then presented which appears applicable to all these areas. Within the framework of this theory, some fundamental problems are stated and discussed, such as questions of identifiability, choices of estimation procedures, or techniques for testing hypotheses.     

Effect of cobalt sorption on metal fractionation in anaerobic granular sludge

A sequential extraction procedure was applied to two anaerobic methanogenic sludges (Eerbeek and Nedalco) to examine the speciation of micro- and macronutrients in the sludges after cobalt sorption by exposing the sludge to a 1 mM Co solution for 4 d at pH 7 and 30 degrees C. The effect of different physicochemical conditions on cobalt sorption was studied as well: effect of pH (6-8), effect of competition by a second trace element (Ni or Fe), modification of the granular matrix by glutaraldehyde or heat treatment, and EDTA (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid) addition. Sorbed Co was found to distribute between the carbonates, organic matter + sulfides, and residual fractions. Cobalt adsorption resulted in an antagonistic interaction with other metals present in the granular matrix, evidenced by the solubilization of other trace elements (e.g., Ni, Cu, and Zn) as well as macronutrients (especially Ca and Fe). Modification of the sludge matrix by glutaraldehyde or heat treatment, or exposure to EDTA, led to serious modifications of the Co sorption capacity and strong interactions with multivalent cations (i.e., Ca(2+) and Fe(2+)).     

238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Am, 90Sr and 137Cs in soils around nuclear research centre Rez, near Prague

Forty-four soil samples were taken around the nuclear research centre Rez, near Prague. The mean activity concentrations of 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Am, 90Sr and 137Cs in uncultivated soil were 0.010, 0.26, 0.12, 2.7 and 23 Bq.kg(-1), respectively. Contents of radionuclides in cultivated soil were lower and in forest soil higher than in uncultivated soil. The mean activity ratios of 238Pu/239,240Pu, 241Am/239,240Pu, 90Sr/239,240Pu and 239,240Pu/137Cs in uncultivated soil were 0.041, 0.47, 10.9 and 0.013, respectively. The mean activity ratios in cultivated and forest soils were close to the values given above. It follows from the results that the source of 239,240Pu, 90Sr and 137Cs in the studied area is deposition from atmospheric nuclear tests, in the case of 137Cs also deposition from Chernobyl accident. The contribution of the research centre effluents was not proved for these radionuclides. Increased activity ratio of 241Am/239,240Pu indicates the presence of 241Am in the soils studied emanating from sources other than nuclear tests. Uniform distribution of the 241Am/239,240Pu activity ratio around the nuclear research centre and the absence of an area with evidently higher activity ratio, including at sites lying in the main wind direction, suggest that the additional activity of 241Am does not originate from the nuclear research centre. The additional source might be the deposition following the Chernobyl accident.     

Current and Future Strategies for Water and Wastewater Management of Istanbul City

Istanbul has experienced rapid increases in population to more than 12 million people, which has created infrastructure problems of water supply and wastewater treatment and disposal. In this article, the achievements and approaches of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) to solve the water shortage problem and to improve services are summarized. Istanbul had a very severe water shortage problem in 1994 because of ignorance of the implementation of the needed projects. After reviewing the reasons and causes of the problem, new priority criteria adopted after 1994 are given. Following the implementation of the projects determined according to the aforementioned criteria, water supplied has exceeded the water demand. The added capacity is equal to one to three times of the capacity built up to 1994 for water treatment, service reservoirs, pumping stations, transmission lines, and the water distribution network; water quality has been improved the meet local and international potable water standards. Unaccounted for water has been reduced from 60% to 27%. The percentage of treated wastewater has been increased from 10% to 90% in 8 years, resulting in drastic improvements and rehabilitation of the Golden Horn and coastal water quality. Through improved customer services, complaints were reduced from 33% in 1994 to 0.3%. Some of the main criteria and the approaches behind this success are summarized. Published online     

Air bag effectiveness as function of impact speed

An investigation was conducted to estimate the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity. The study consisted of three parts: a theoretical idealization, an analysis of National Automotive Sampling System/Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS), and a reanalysis of previously published Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data. The theoretical analysis looked at idealized risk curves as a function of velocity; assuming that the air bag offers a benefit for both belted and unbelted occupants. Analysis of the NASS/CDS data looked at the effectiveness of air bags as a function of velocity for Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ injuries. The reanalysis of the previously published FARS data looked at the effectiveness of the air bag as a function of velocity for fatalities. The theoretical analysis indicates that the air bag effectiveness should be greatest at the low velocities. The field data analysis of both NASS/CDS and FARS were consistent with the theoretical analysis, indicating that air bags are most effective at the lower velocities, below 40 kph (25 mph), for both belted and unbelted occupants. Although it was not possible to estimate a different effect for belted and unbelted for fatalities using FARS, it was possible for MAIS 3+ using NASS/CDS. For unbelted occupants the effectiveness goes to zero or becomes negative above 40 kph (25 mph) for MAIS 3+, and for belted occupants the effectiveness stays positive but with significantly lower magnitude for speeds above 40 kph (25 mph).     

Study of the presence of fluorine in the recycled fractions during carbothermal treatment of EAF dust

Carbothermal treatment tests of electric arc furnace dusts (EAFD) using the Waelz kiln process were carried out in pilot-scale for the production of zinc oxide. The association of halides in the EAFD, and the recycled products, such as zinc oxide fumes and high-grade iron contents fractions were examined by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and transmission electron microscope (TEM) analysis. XRD reveals the presence of chlorine and fluorine in the dusts in the form of KCl, NaCl and CaF2. An ultra-pure fraction of zinc was obtained after the Double Leaching Waelz Oxide (DLWO) process was performed on the zinc oxide fumes. The halide contents were reduced to approximately 100 ppm Cl and 700 ppm F. The rest of these elements are in the form of CaF2. About 65% F is volatilised as lead and zinc fluorides, 15% is expected in the magnetic fractions and 20% in non-magnetic fractions as CaF2 and MnF2, respectively.     

Inertization of pyrite cinders and co-inertization with electric arc furnace flue dusts by pyroconsolidation at solid state

The viability of a pyroconsolidation process to render pyrite cinders inert and to co-inert pyrite cinders with a hazardous polymetallic residue such as electric arc furnace flue dusts (EAF) containing Pb, Cu, Zn, As, Cr, Ni and Mo were investigated. The effects of pyroconsolidation temperature (800-1200 degrees C), milling pyrite cinders and additions of both CaO and EAF on the resulting microstructure of the pellets were determined. The microstructural changes were then compared with the results of the standard leaching tests. Full inertization of pyrite cinders was achieved after milling to < 100 micron followed by a pelletization and pyroconsolidation process at a temperature of 1200 degrees C. This process also allows co-inertization of pyrite cinders with controlled additions of EAF (up to approximately to 10%). Following pyroconsolidation at 1200 degrees C, the metallic elements were inert components in the four main phases: traces of Cr in hematite; Cr, Cu, Zn and Ni in spinel-phase; traces of Cr and Zn in calcium ferrites; and Pb and traces of Cu, Zn and Ba in K-Ca-Al-Fe glassy silicate.     

Relating net nitrogen input in the Mississippi River basin to nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River: a comparison of approaches

A quantitative understanding of the relationship between terrestrial N inputs and riverine N flux can help guide conservation, policy, and adaptive management efforts aimed at preserving or restoring water quality. The objective of this study was to compare recently published approaches for relating terrestrial N inputs to the Mississippi River basin (MRB) with measured nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Nitrogen inputs to and outputs from the MRB (1951 to 1996) were estimated from state-level annual agricultural production statistics and NOy (inorganic oxides of N) deposition estimates for 20 states that comprise 90% of the MRB. A model with water yield and gross N inputs accounted for 85% of the variation in observed annual nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River, from 1960 to 1998, but tended to underestimate high nitrate flux and overestimate low nitrate flux. A model that used water yield and net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) accounted for 95% of the variation in riverine N flux. The NANI approach accounted for N harvested in crops and assumed that crop harvest in excess of the nutritional needs of the humans and livestock in the basin would be exported from the basin. The U.S. White House Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CENR) developed a more comprehensive N budget that included estimates of ammonia volatilization, denitrification, and exchanges with soil organic matter. The residual N in the CENR budget was weakly and negatively correlated with observed riverine nitrate flux. The CENR estimates of soil N mineralization and immobilization suggested that there were large (2000 kg N ha-1) net losses of soil organic N between 1951 and 1996. When the CENR N budget was modified by assuming that soil organic N levels have been relatively constant after 1950, and ammonia volatilization losses are redeposited within the basin, the trend of residual N closely matched temporal variation in NANI and was positively correlated with riverine nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Based on results from applying these three modeling approaches, we conclude that although the NANI approach does not address several processes that influence the N cycle, it appears to focus on the terms that can be estimated with reasonable certainty and that are correlated with riverine N flux.     

Activity of glutathione S-transferase in Spodoptera exigua larvae exposed to cadmium and zinc in two subsequent generations

The aim of our study was to establish changes in activity of important in detoxification enzyme-glutathione S-transferase (GST): in alimentary tract, fat body and Malpighian tubules of Spodoptera exigua larvae being under cadmium and zinc exposure through the first as well as the second generation. There was registered enhancement of the enzyme activity in the fat body and the Malpighian tubules caused by zinc as well as its decrease in the Malpighian tubules under cadmium action. Amounts of metals in the alimentary tract were either several times higher than in the diet ingested by larvae or than in the fat body. Metal concentration in the fat body correlated with the level of the enzyme activity (positive correlation for zinc and negative for cadmium). The effect of metal action differentiated dependently on time exposition.