基于在线监测的江河入海径流通量计算方法研究与应用——以辽河口为例

随着入海流量在线监测技术的兴起,本文从流量在线监测技术原理和步骤出发,对入海流量在线监测的主要技术环节进行了梳理,给出了综合、全面的江河入海径流通量流程化计算方案,并将其应用到了辽河入海径流通量计算实例中。本文的研究为江河污染物排海量的准确估算和入海流量在线监测技术的推广提供了支持。     

小流域综合治理新设计研究——猪沼果模式

近年来,小流域综合治理的主旨思想改变了,其工作重心在于巩固和发展治理开发的成果,提升综合治理的科技含量,增加治理带来的经济效益。于是将小流域的治理与生产联系起来成为了当前科研人员的研究方向。文章对目前部分地区大力推广的"猪-沼-果"模式在小流域治理方面的概念、发展及综合效益等方面做了一些综述。总的来说,猪沼果模式能够增加农村的能源,增加农民收入,并保护绿植,促进小流域治理。     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

锌、铝的激光-时间分辨荧光测定

本文报道了以７碘８羟基喹啉５磺酸作荧光增强剂的Ｚｎ、Ａｌ激光时间分辨荧光测定方法。方法检出限分别为２５μｇ／Ｌ和１０μｇ／Ｌ。用牛肝粉标准品（ＮＢＳ１５７７ａ）进行了验证     

Mathematical balance models for monitoring the state of Lake Baikal

The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.