Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

聚硅酸氯化铝处理皂素废水的研究

制备了聚硅酸氯化铝(PASC)絮凝剂,并用其进行了皂素废水处理实验。考察了絮凝剂投加量、pH值、搅拌速度对COD和浊度去除率的影响。结果表明,当絮凝剂投加量为9～13.5 mg/L、pH值5～7、搅拌速度150～250 r/min时,COD和浊度去除效果较好。最佳工艺条件为：絮凝剂投加量11.25 mg/L、pH值6、搅拌速度200 r/min。此时,COD去除率为93.7％,浊度去除率为97.5％。PASC的絮凝性能明显优于PAC。     

液晶显示器液晶处理与铟回收技术

在实验室条件下,对液晶显示器回收的各个重要环节作了初步的探索,提出了一整套回收工艺.其中包括利用丙酮常温浸取去除偏光片、分离玻璃基板、溶解液晶,还包括利用硫酸溶液和二氧化锰联合浸取玻璃基板,铟的浸取率达89%.得到的铟的酸液经过萃取、置换和电解,可以得到铟的产品,为液晶显示器的资源化和无害化提供实验数据和技术支持.     

基于荷载试验的空心板桥加固效率分析

基于3座预应力混凝土空心板桥在试验荷载下加固前后荷载试验及理论计算得出的板底平均应力和挠度结果,对比粘贴碳纤维筋加固、简支转连续加固和粘贴钢板加固3种方法对简支预应力空心板桥结构的力学性能的提升效果.结果表明,粘贴碳纤维筋加固及粘贴钢板加固方法对结构刚度有轻微提高,对结构的延性及承载力有一定的提高;简支转连续加固方法在...     

多器件联合L波段强电磁脉冲防护模块仿真设计

目的 设计针对L波段射频前端敏感器件的强电磁脉冲防护模块,利用瞬态电压抑制二极管、气体放电管和发夹型微带带通滤波器进行联合仿真设计。方法 瞬态电压抑制二极管具有快速响应时间,气体放电管具有高功率容量,而微带带通滤波器可分离噪声信号,并保留有效信号。通过结合这些器件进行防护设计,可以充分发挥各自优势,提高系统稳定性和强电磁脉冲防护能力。结果 该模块设计工作频段为1.3~ 1.7 GHz,带内插入损耗小于1.5 dB,在70 dBm功率注入的情况下,防护效果可以达到42.5 dB,具有良好的防护效果。结论 通过分析研究不同器件的特性和优化设计,实现了对L波段频谱的防护,具有重要的实用价值和广阔的应用前景。     

用废腈纶制备高分子增稠剂

以废腈纶为原料，经碱法水解反应和扩链反应制取乳液用高分子增稠剂。水解工艺条件为水解温度95℃，水解时间4h；水解配方为m(PAN)：m(NaOH)：m(H2O)=1：0．6：5；扩链反应温度95℃，扩链反应时间约4h。对不同乳液体系进行的增稠性能评价及应用表明，利用该技术制备出的高分子增稠剂性能优良，应用范围广泛。现已建成一套生产能力为1000t/a的工业装置。     

海面浮油的生物处理技术

文章就海面浮油的产生、危害、发展趋势以及防治技术进行了论述,在海面浮油处理的物理、化学、生物技术中,生物技术具有高效、低费用、无二次污染等优点。特别是处理较薄油膜或化学药品使用受限时,更有其无可替代的优点。同时还指出了生物技术的局限性。