Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.     

14C‐labeled aflatoxin B1 prepared with yeastlike cultures of Aspergillus parasiticus

Abstract

A simple method was developed to produce ¹⁴C‐labeled aflatoxin B₁ by using the yeastlike phase of Aspergillus parasiticus NRRL 2999. Yeastlike cultures resulted from absence of manganese in a synthetic medium. Sodium acetate‐1‐¹⁴C had a 0.22% average incorporation; sodium acetate‐1,2‐¹⁴C, 0.70%. The average yield of labeled B₁ was 10 mg/500 ml medium with an average specific activity of either 63.3 mCi/mole (C‐l label) or 194.3 mCi/mole (C‐1, 2 label).     

Rapana venosa as an indicator species for TBT exposure over decadal and seasonal scales

Imposex and decline in reproductive output in marine gastropods have been linked to tributyltin (TBT) exposure. This study describes Chesapeake Bay, USA, veined rapa whelk Rapana venosa imposex incidence and sex ratios from 1998 to 2009. Tissue TBT concentrations (ng g^?1) were examined with respect to whelk sex, size, and water temperature at the time of collection, and also to egg case size, hatching success, and veliger diameter. Imposex incidence declined and population sex ratios moved closer to parity from 1998 to 2009. Observed TBT concentrations (ng g^?1) were higher in James River than in Ocean View whelks with higher TBT concentrations observed in males than in females. Exponential declines in TBT concentrations from female-specific first to last clutches within a reproductive season were observed, indicating that whelks depurate TBT through egg case deposition. Egg capsule hatching success and veliger size were similar for female and imposex whelks. The R. venosa imposex levels observed in Chesapeake Bay apparently do not affect the production, release, or viability of larvae.     

Flooding,resettlement, and change in livelihoods: evidence from rural Mozambique

Post‐disaster development policies, such as resettlement, can have major impacts on communities. This paper examines how and why people's livelihoods change as a result of resettlement, and relocated people's views of such changes, in the context of natural disasters. It presents two historically‐grounded, comparative case studies of post‐flood resettlement in rural Mozambique. The studies demonstrate a movement away from rain‐fed subsistence agriculture towards commercial agriculture and non‐agricultural activities. The ability to secure a viable livelihood was a key determinant of whether resettlers remained in their new locations or returned to the river valleys despite the risks posed by floods. The findings suggest that more research is required to understand i) why resettlers choose to stay in or abandon designated resettlement areas, ii) what is meant by ‘voluntary’ and ‘involuntary’ resettlement in the realm of post‐disaster reconstruction, and iii) the policy drivers of resettlement in developing countries.     

Incorporating low-resolution historic species location data decreases performance of distribution models

Developing robust species distribution models is important as model outputs are increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and management decisions. A largely overlooked component of model assessment and refinement is whether to include historic species occurrence data in distribution models to increase the data sample size. Data of different temporal provenance often differ in spatial accuracy and precision. We test the effect of inclusion of historic coarse-resolution occurrence data on distribution model outputs for 187 species of birds in Australian tropical savannas. Models using only recent (after 1990), fine-resolution data had significantly higher model performance scores measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than models incorporating both fine- and coarse-resolution data. The drop in AUC score is positively correlated with the total area predicted to be suitable for the species (R² = 0.163-0.187, depending on the environmental predictors in the model), as coarser data generally leads to greater predicted areas. The remaining unexplained variation is likely to be due to the covariate errors resulting from resolution mismatch between species records and environmental predictors. We conclude that decisions regarding data use in species distribution models must be conscious of the variation in predictions that mixed-scale datasets might cause.     

Towards the development of a multidisciplinary understanding of the effects of toxic chemical mixtures on health

Mixtures can be divided into simple (chemicals with comparable properties—health risk assessments on the chemicals) and complex, which can be further subdivided into defined (a reasonably distinct composition, created at a specific time and place despite dissimilar components—risk assessments on the common source) and coincidental (chemicals without similar properties or constant composition in time or space—risk assessments on the receptor). Interactions recognized are: independent action, dose addition (additivity), and potentiation (synergy and antagonism). Unpredicted outcomes need recognition. New approaches in higher education and multidisciplinary investigations are essential. The community of the Society for Environmental Geochemistry and Health should help clarify points such as when transformations in mixtures may become important enough to alter the classification and the risk assessment. The multidisciplinary community is also well placed to support the integration of nonchemical influences into mixture analysis and to contribute to the investigation of cumulative and multiple exposures.     

The nexus amid foreign direct investment,urbanization, and CO2 emissions: Evidence from energy grouping along the ECOWAS community

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The vision of every country or subregions is to achieve economic growth and sustainable economic growth. Thus, the Economic Community of West African...     

Chemical and biochemical studies in fetuses affected with nieman-pick disease type A

Chemical and biochemical studies were performed on two unrelated fetuses affected with Niemann-Pick disease type A, following abortion at about the 19th week of gestation. Abortion was performed as a consequence of previous findings, in amniotic fluid cell cultures, that sphingomyelinase activity was completely absent. Phospholipid analyses of various organs of the fetuses, spleen and liver were the organs mostly affected. Interestingly enough considerable accumulation of sphingomyelin was found in the placenta. The brain was the only organ in which sphingomyeiin storage could not be proved. In addition to sphingomyelin a slight accumulation of cholesterol was noticed. Deficiency of sphingomyelinase activity measured at pH 5·0 was the general characteristic of the affected tissues. It is concluded that the accumulation of sphingomyelin in various organs throughout the body of fetuses affected with Niemann-Pick disease is suggestive of the essential role of the enzyme sphingomyelinase and its biochemical maturation, even during the early stages of gestation.     

Sexual conflict,sexual selection and sperm competition in the spawning decisions of bitterling, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhodeus</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">sericeus</Emphasis>

Sexual selection may operate through either direct selection on preference genes or indirect genetic benefits. However, in many species both direct and indirect selection may operate and can influence female mate and oviposition choice. Adaptations by males for sperm competition can also affect female mate and oviposition choice and can lead to sexual conflict. We investigated the role of direct and indirect benefits and male adaptation to sperm competition for female oviposition decisions in the bitterling, Rhodeus sericeus, a freshwater fish that spawns on the gills of living unionid mussels. Field experiments showed that females chose mussels for spawning on the basis of the number of embryos already in mussels and the body size and/or extent of red coloration of the eyes of territorial males. There was also a significant interaction between these direct and indirect benefits of oviposition choice. Territorial male bitterling avoided leading females to mussels into which rivals had already released sperm. Males also increased their rate of sperm release into mussels in response to sperm release by sneaking males. We discuss the possibility that sexual conflict in oviposition choice occurs in this species.     

Monitoring and modelling of biosphere/atmosphere exchange of gases and aerosols in Europe

Monitoring and modelling of deposition of air pollutants is essential to develop and evaluate policies to abate the effects related to air pollution and to determine the losses of pollutants from the atmosphere. Techniques for monitoring wet deposition fluxes are widely applied. A recent intercomparison experiment, however, showed that the uncertainty in wet deposition is relatively high, up to 40%, apart from the fact that most samplers are biased because of a dry deposition contribution. Wet deposition amounts to about 80% of the total deposition in Europe with a range of 10-90% and uncertainty should therefore be decreased. During recent years the monitoring of dry deposition has become possible. Three sites have been operational for 5 years. The data are useful for model development, but also for model evaluation and monitoring of progress in policy. Data show a decline in SO(2) dry deposition, whereas nitrogen deposition remained constant. Furthermore, surface affinities for pollutants changed leading to changes in deposition. Deposition models have been further developed and tested with dry deposition measurements and total deposition measurements on forests as derived from throughfall data. The comparison is reasonable given the measurement uncertainties. Progress in ozone surface exchange modelling and monitoring shows that stomatal uptake can be quantified with reasonable accuracy, but external surface uptake yields highest uncertainty.