The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets

This paper models the monthly price volatilities of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices) and investigates the macroeconomic determinants (business cycle, monetary environment and financial market sentiment) of these volatilities. Gold volatility is shown to be explained by monetary variables, but this is not true for silver. Overall, there is limited evidence that the same macroeconomic factors jointly influence the volatility processes of the four precious metal price series, although there is evidence of volatility feedback between the precious metals. These results are consistent with the view that precious metals are too distinct to be considered a single asset class, or represented by a single index. This finding is of importance for portfolio managers and investors.     

Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine,Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest1

Merten, Eric C., Nathaniel A. Hemstad, Randall K. Kolka, Raymond M. Newman, Elon S. Verry, and Bruce Vondracek, 2010. Recovery of Sediment Characteristics in Moraine, Headwater Streams of Northern Minnesota After Forest Harvest. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 733-743. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00445.x Abstract: We investigated the recovery of sediment characteristics in four moraine, headwater streams in north-central Minnesota after forest harvest. We examined changes in fine sediment levels from 1997 (preharvest) to 2007 (10 years postharvest) at study plots with upland clear felling and riparian thinning, using canopy cover, proportion of unstable banks, surficial fine substrates, residual pool depth, and streambed depth of refusal as response variables. Basin-scale year effects were significant (p < 0.001) for all responses when evaluated by repeated-measures ANOVAs. Throughout the study area, unstable banks increased for several years postharvest, coinciding with an increase in windthrow and fine sediment. Increased unstable banks may have been caused by forest harvest equipment, increased windthrow and exposure of rootwads, or increased discharge and bank scour. Fine sediment in the channels did not recover by summer 2007, even though canopy cover and unstable banks had returned to 1997 levels. After several storm events in fall 2007, 10 years after the initial sediment input, fine sediment was flushed from the channels and returned to 1997 levels. Although our study design did not discern the source of the initial sediment inputs (e.g., forest harvest, road crossings, other natural causes), we have shown that moraine, headwater streams can require an extended period (up to 10 years) and enabling event (e.g., high storm flows) to recover from large inputs of fine sediment.     

Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO(2) taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO(2) measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO(2) levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.     

Anthropogenic oligotrophication via liming: Long-term phosphorus trends in acidified,limed, and neutral reference lakes in Sweden

Restoration of acidified lakes by liming does not, in many cases, improve productivity to a pre-acidified state. We hypothesize that the poor recovery detected in many of these lakes is due to constrained in-lake phosphorous (P) cycling caused by enhanced precipitation of metals in higher pH, limed waters. Long-term (1990–2012) data for 65 limed, circum-neutral (pH 6–8), and acidified lakes in Sweden were analyzed to determine trends for P and potential drivers of these trends. Limed lakes not only had lower mean values and stronger decreasing trends for total P than non-limed lakes, but they also had the highest percentage of decreasing trends (85 %). A P release factor (Hypolimnetic P/Epilimnetic P) was developed to elucidate differences in internal P cycling between lake groups. Consistently, lower P release factors in limed lakes show limitation of internal P cycling during summer months that may be a factor limiting P bioavailability and thus productivity of these systems.     

Comparative statistical study of hourly precipitation determined by radar-based Stage IV and ground-based methods in the North Central United States

Detailed hourly precipitation data are required for long-range modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants using the CALPUFF model. In sparsely populated areas such as the north central United States, ground-based precipitation measurement stations may be too widely spaced to offer a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a modeling domain. The availability of remotely sensed precipitation data by satellite and the National Weather Service array of next-generation radars (NEXRAD) deployed nationally provide an opportunity to improve on the paucity of data for these areas. Before adopting a new method of precipitation estimation in a modeling protocol, it should be compared with the ground-based precipitation measurements, which are currently relied upon for modeling purposes. This paper presents a statistical comparison between hourly precipitation measurements for the years 2006 through 2008 at 25 ground-based stations in the north central United States and radar-based precipitation measurements available from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) as Stage IV data at the nearest grid cell to each selected precipitation station. It was found that the statistical agreement between the two methods depends strongly on whether the ground-based hourly precipitation is measured to within 0.1 in/hr or to within 0.01 in/hr. The results of the statistical comparison indicate that it would be more accurate to use gridded Stage IV precipitation data in a gridded dispersion model for a long-range simulation, than to rely on precipitation data interpolated between widely scattered rain gauges.

Implications:

The current reliance on ground-based rain gauges for precipitation events and hourly data for modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants results in potentially large discontinuity in data coverage and the need to extrapolate data between monitoring stations. The use of radar-based precipitation data, which is available for the entire continental United States and nearby areas, would resolve these data gaps and provide a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a large modeling domain.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

The Analysis of Airborne Sulfate

This report reviews the current state of analytical methodology for sulfate in airborne particles. Methods for determination of total aerosol sulfate and total soluble sulfate are assessed. A more detailed review of the relatively new techniques for quantitative speciation of airborne sulfate then follows. Size distribution methodology and filter sampling difficulties relating to the collection of airborne sulfate-containing particles are enumerated. Experiments are suggested which use new, improved, and potentially applicable sulfate speciation techniques to obtain a better understanding of the generation, transport, transformation and removal processes that, in turn, determine the identity and concentrations of sulfate species in ambient air.     

Relationship between Sulfate Aerosol and Visibility

A PM₁₀ monitoring network was established throughout the South Coast Air Basin (SOCAB) in the greater Los Angeles region during the calendar year 1986. Annual average PM₁₀ mass concentrations within the Los Angeles metropolitan area ranged from 47.0 µg m^-3 along the coast to 87.4 µg m^-3 at Rubldoux, the furthest inland monitoring station. Measurements made at San Nicolas Island suggest that regional background aerosol contributes between 28 to 44 percent of the PM₁₀ aerosol at monitoring sites In the SOCAB over the long term average. Five major aerosol components (carbonaceous material, NO^- ₃, SO⁼ ₄, NH⁺ ₄, and soil-related material) account for greater than 80 percent of the annual average PM₁₀ mass at all on-land monitoring stations. Peak 24-h average mass concentrations of nearly 300 µg m^-3 were observed at inland locations, with lower peak values (?130–150 µg m^-3) measured along the coast. Peak-day aerosol composition was characterized by increased NO^- ₃ Ion and associated ammonium ion levels, as compared to the annual average. There appears to be only a weak dependence of PM₁₀ mass concentration on season of the year. This lack of a pronounced seasonal dependence results from the complex and contradictory seasonal variations in the major chemical components (carbonaceous material, nitrate, sulfate, ammonium ion and crustal material). At most sites within the Los Angeles metropolitan area, PM₁₀ mass concentrations exceeded both the annual and 24-h average federal and state of California PM₁₀ regulatory standards.     

NOx Removal with Combined Selective Catalytic Reduction and Selective Noncatalytic Reduction: Pilot-Scale Test Results

Pilot-scale tests were conducted to develop a combined nitrogen oxide (NO_x) reduction technology using both selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR). A commercially available vanadium- and titanium-based composite honeycomb catalyst and enhanced urea (NH₂CONH₂) were used with a natural-gas-fired furnace at a NO_x concentration of 110 ppm. Changes in SNCR chemical injection temperature and stoichiometry led to varying levels of post-furnace ammonia (NH₃), which acts as the reductant feed to the downstream SCR catalyst. The urea-based chemical could routinely achieve SNCR plus SCR total NO_x reductions of 85 percent with less than 3 ppm NH₃ slip at reductant/NO_x stoichiometries ranging from about 1.5 to 2.5 and SCR space velocities of 18,000 to 32,000 h^?1. This pilot-scale research has shown that SNCR and SCR can be integrated to achieve high NO_x removal. SNCR provides high temperature reduction of NO_x followed by further removal of NO_x and minimization of NH₃ slip by a significantly downsized (high-space velocity) SCR.     

Effects of the pharmaceuticals gemfibrozil and diclofenac on biomarker expression in the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) and their comparison with standardised toxicity tests

Pharmaceuticals, including the lipid regulator gemfibrozil and the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac have been identified in waste water treatment plant effluents and receiving waters throughout the western world. The acute and chronic toxicity of these compounds was assessed for three freshwater species (Daphnia magna,Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, Lemna minor) using standardised toxicity tests with toxicity found in the non-environmentally relevant mid mg L⁻¹ concentration range. For the acute endpoints (IC₅₀ and EC₅₀) gemfibrozil showed higher toxicity ranging from 29 to 59 mg L⁻¹ (diclofenac 47-67 mg L⁻¹), while diclofenac was more toxic for the chronic D. magna 21 d endpoints ranging from 10 to 56 mg L⁻¹ (gemfibrozil 32-100 mg L⁻¹). These results were compared with the expression of several biomarkers in the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) 24 and 96 h after exposure by injection to concentrations of 21 and 21,000 μg L⁻¹ corresponding to nominal concentrations of 1 and 1000 μg L⁻¹. Exposure to gemfibrozil and diclofenac at both concentrations significantly increased the level of lipid peroxidation, a biomarker of damage. At the elevated nominal concentration of 1000 μg L⁻¹ the biomarkers of defence glutathione transferase and metallothionein were significantly elevated for gemfibrozil and diclofenac respectively, as was DNA damage after 96 h exposure to gemfibrozil. No evidence of endocrine disruption was observed using the alkali-labile phosphate technique. Results from this suite of biomarkers indicate these compounds can cause significant stress at environmentally relevant concentrations acting primarily through oxidation pathways with significant destabilization of the lysosomal membrane and that biomarker expression is a more sensitive endpoint than standardised toxicity tests.