I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a “town-hall” meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0652-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Female tactile cues maximize paternal behavior in prairie voles

Most monogamous male mammals display parental care, but the mechanism by which they become motivated to care for infants remains unknown. We used prairie voles (Microtus ochrogaster) as a model of biparental species to test the hypothesis that physical contact with a female enhances male parental responsiveness before the birth of offspring. We tested four groups of males: mated with physical contact with their mate, mated with only distal cues from their mate, mated with no cues, and unmated with distal cues from a female. The subjects were placed in an oversized cage divided into two compartments by a perforated barrier. At mid-gestation, the bedding and females were removed, and the males’ responses toward two infants were videotaped. Although most males behaved parentally, mated males exposed to their mate’s tactile or distal cues approached the young faster and were more likely to care for both infants than unmated males which received female distal cues. Males who had physical contact with their mate showed “kyphosis” (a crouching position over infants) and contacted infants more frequently than mated males which received no cues from their mate or unmated males which received female distal cues. Furthermore, the frequency of non-social behaviors was lowest in mated males that had physical contact with their mate. The data suggest that exposure to female distal cues after mating is sufficient to increase male parental attentiveness, but female somatosensory cues affect the male's tendency to remain in physical contact with infants.     

Patch size-dependent community recovery after massive disturbance

Massive anthropogenic and climate-related disturbances are now common in ecosystems worldwide, generating widespread die-off and subsequent community recovery dominated by remnant-patch dynamics rather than open-gap dynamics. Whether communities can recover and, if so, which factors mediate recolonization rate and extent remain unresolved. Here we evaluate recolonization dynamics of southern U.S. salt marshes that experienced extensive, drought-induced die-off of the foundation species Spartina alterniflora over the previous decade. Surveys of Georgia (USA) salt marshes showed little seedling recruitment in die-off areas but persistence of Spartina particularly in large, rather than small, remnant patches. Given this natural variation in remnant patch size, we conducted field experiments to test whether key plant-controlling biotic (grazing, plant neighbor presence) and abiotic (water availability) factors differentially impact Spartina recolonization at small and large-patch scales. In the small-patch (< 1 m2) experiment in 2009, removing grazers and plant neighbors prompted dramatically higher expansion and growth of Spartina relative to controls, while adding freshwater to reduce water limitation had little effect. In contrast, large-patch (> 20 m2 borders advanced significantly over the same time period regardless of grazer or neighbor removal. We continued the large-patch experiments in 2010, a year that experienced drought, and also added freshwater or salt to borders to modify ambient drought stress; overall, borders advanced less than the previous year but significantly more where neighbors were removed or freshwater added. Thus, water availability appears to mediate Spartina recovery by fueling large-patch expansion during wet summers and intensifying interspecific competition during drought. Combined, these findings suggest ecosystems can recover from massive disturbance if remnant foundation species' patches are large enough to overcome biotic inhibition and successfully expand during periods of relaxed abiotic stress.     

Specification of the logit model: The case of valuation of nonmarket goods

We address the proper specification of the logit model for estimation of nonmarket commodity demand. Economic theory is used to show the conditions which must be met by the logit functional form if it is to yield valid estimates of welfare change measures and demand relationships. An empirical example is used to illustrate the argument. Recreational boating data were collected using the contingent valuation method (CVM) in Texas. In one instance the demand curve is positively sloped due to the specific functional form chosen. The estimated demand curve for the theoretically preferred functional form has the expected negative slope.     

Changing weather and climate in Northern Ghana: comparison of local perceptions with meteorological and land cover data

Regional Environmental Change - Local perspectives on changing weather and climate and analyses of meteorological data represent two different but potentially complementary ways of knowing about...     

Prüfanforderungen des Umweltbundesamtes zur Bewertung der Auswirkungen von Pflanzenschutzmitteln auf terrestrische Pflanzen

The fundamental data requirements for the authorization of plant protection products and the inclusion of active ingredients in Annex I of Council Directive 91/414/EEC are described in the Annexes II and III of this Directive. Definite instructions with regard to preconditions and for implementation and methodology (guidelines) concerning investigations with terrestrial plants are deficient. In the following, the scientific data requirements are explained for assessing the effects of plant protection products on terrestrial plants.     

Weighted road density: A simple way of assigning traffic-related air pollution exposure

BackgroundExisting traffic variables used for predicting NO₂ in epidemiological studies are either difficult to acquire or explain only a small proportion of the variance. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a new predictor, weighted road density, which combines the maximum amount of information related to traffic into a single variable without the requirement of obtaining traffic counts for a given area.MethodTwo week NO₂ samples were collected using the readings of up to 32 passive samplers on 3 separate rounds between September and December 2006 and again in 2007. Several types of traffic related explanatory variables based on traffic counts, distance to main road and the proposed weighted road density were constructed using GIS software, and tested for association with the NO₂ samplers. Assessment of the best model was based on R² values, as well as leave-one-out cross validation.ResultsThe weighted road density variable and the density variable based on traffic counts resulted in a similar R² (0.59) for predicting NO₂, although weighted road density was much easier to construct and outperformed other variables such as distance to main road.ConclusionAs well as being a powerful predictor for use in a land use regression model, weighted road density can be used as a proxy for exposure to traffic-related pollution, for use in circumstances where direct measurements of pollutant levels are not feasible or are not required.     

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

A regional modeling system was applied with inputs from global climate and chemistry models to quantify the effects of global change on future biogenic emissions and their impacts on ozone and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOA) in the US. Biogenic emissions in the future are influenced by projected changes in global and regional climates and by variations in future land use and land cover (LULC). The modeling system was applied for five summer months for the present-day case (1990–1999, Case 1) and three future cases covering 2045–2054. Individual future cases were: present-day LULC (Case 2); projected-future LULC (Case 3); and future LULC with designated regions of tree planting for carbon sequestration (Case 4). Results showed changing future meteorology with present-day LULC (Case 2) increased average isoprene and monoterpene emission rates by 26% and 20% due to higher temperature and solar insolation. However when LULC was changed together with climate (Case 3), predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions decreased by 52% and 31%, respectively, due primarily to projected cropland expansion. The reduction was less, at 31% and 14% respectively, when future LULC changes were accompanied by regions of tree planting (Case 4). Despite the large decrease in biogenic emission, future average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone was found to increase between +8 ppbv and +10 ppbv due to high future anthropogenic emissions and global chemistry conditions. Among the future cases, changing LULC resulted in spatially varying future ozone differences of ?5 ppbv to +5 ppbv when compared with present-day case. Future BSOA changed directly with the estimated monoterpene emissions. BSOA increased by 8% with current LULC (Case 2) but decreased by 45%–28% due to future LULC changes. Overall, the results demonstrated that on a regional basis, changes in LULC can offset temperature driven increases in biogenic emissions, and, thus, LULC projection is an important factor to consider in the study of future regional air quality.     

The contribution of biological particles to observed particulate organic carbon at a remote high altitude site

Although a significant fraction of atmospheric particulate mass is organic carbon, the sources of particulate organic carbon (POC) are not always apparent. One potential source of atmospheric POC is biological particles, such as bacteria, pollen, and fungal spores. Measurements of POC and biological particles, including bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen, were made as part of the Storm Peak Aerosol and Cloud Characterization Study in Steamboat Springs, CO in March–April 2008. Biological particles were identified and characterized using several methods. The results suggest that biological particles could account for an average of 40% of the organic carbon mass in particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 μm. These estimates of POC mass from biological particles are highly uncertain; however, the results suggest that biological particles could be a significant source of organic aerosol in the background continental atmosphere and further observations are needed to better constrain these estimates.     

Evaluation of uncertainties originating from the different modeling approaches applied to analyze regional groundwater flow in the Tono area of Japan

Qualitative evaluation of the effects of uncertainties originating from scenario development, modeling approaches, and parameter values is an important subject in the area of safety assessment for high-level nuclear waste disposal sites. In this study, regional-scale groundwater flow analyses for the Tono area, Japan were conducted using three continuous models designed to handle heterogeneous porous media. We evaluated the simulation results to quantitatively analyze uncertainties originating from modeling approaches. We found that porous media heterogeneity is the main factor which causes uncertainties. We also found that uncertainties originating from modeling approaches greatly depend on the types of hydrological structures and heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity values in the domain assigned by modelers. Uncertainties originating from modeling approaches decrease as the amount of labor and time spent increase, and iterations between investigation and analyses increases.