Equity and sustainability over the next fifty years: An exercise in economic visioning

A simplistic aggregate model of global economic activity supports a 50-year visioning exercise with targets defined in terms of aggregate measures of global equity (convergence) and sustainability (contraction). Some ambitious combinations of these targets turn out to be infeasible even under the most favorable modeling assumptions. No contraction target (no reduction in fossil fuel consumption relative to the present) was possible, for example, if international capital transfers pushed per capita incomes in low-income countries above 33% of levels achieved in high-income countries. Lower prices for renewable alternatives to exhaustible resources generally made sustainability targets easier to achieve, but lower prices for renewable resources also made equity targets more difficult to achieve. Improved substitution between capital and labor made equity targets easier to achieve in relative terms, but improved substitution between capital and labor could make any given sustainability target more or less difficult to achieve. All the results suggest that it is possible to overstate the purported conflict between achieving sustainability and equity targets. The very transfers of international capital that would promote relative equity between high-income and low-income countries could also work to spread the incidence of achieving any sustainability target more evenly across their boundaries.     

全球鱼类消费

尽管继续有科学不确定性,但表明当前捕捞实践不可持续的证据与日俱增.在国家层次和国际层次上,人们越来越认真地对待关于过度捕捞及其对穷国食品保障的潜在威胁的告诫.近年来已经看到了一波改善渔业管理的协议.然而,无论在当地社区和传统可能处于危急之中的富国,还是在鱼类对于食品供应也具有根本重要性而且捕捞是沿海地区少数几种生活来源之一的穷国,对减少世界捕捞船队的规模都有强大阻力.     

Using diatoms to assess the impacts of prehistoric, pre-industrial and modern land-use on Danish lakes

The impact of contemporary agriculture on Danish lakes is acknowledged to be extreme. In particular, high loading of nutrients from agricultural soils contributes to the eutrophic conditions found in many of Denmark’s lakes. Palaeolimnological studies have shown that human disturbance of the Danish landscape since the introduction of agriculture around 6,000 years ago has had a major impact on lake ecosystems. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive requires an evaluation of reference conditions for lakes, the conditions expected with only minimal human impact. Monitoring data and palaeolimnological studies of Danish lakes demonstrate that many of the most detrimental effects of eutrophication have been experienced in recent decades. A new study has suggested that the reference status for Danish lakes may be set to the status in ad 1850–1900, probably providing attainable, realistic restoration targets for many sites. The aims of this study were to explore the impacts of past and contemporary land-use on Danish lakes, and to consider how appropriate the use of 1850 as a date to define reference status is for these sites. Catchment land-cover data for ad 1800, taken from historical maps, and sedimentary diatom assemblages of the same age, from dated sediment cores, were used to assess the impact of pre-industrial land-use on 20 Danish lakes. Analysis of contemporary land-cover data and surface-sediment diatom assemblages for the 20 sites was also made. In-lake total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were estimated using the sedimentary diatom assemblages and an existing calibration dataset for Danish lakes. The percentage of the lake catchment that was agricultural land in ad 1800 explained 8.8% of the total variation in the diatom data. The land-cover variables ‘built-up areas’ and ‘plantations’, together explained 16.9% of the variation in the diatom data for the modern samples. Diatom-inferred TP concentrations were high for both ad 1800 (mean 112 μg TP L⁻¹) and the present (mean 122 μg TP L⁻¹), the latter estimates reflecting efforts in recent decades to reduce nutrient loading to Danish lakes following very high levels of nutrient enrichment post-1950. The data presented highlight the impact that human activities 200 years ago, particularly agriculture, had on Danish lake systems. The long cultural history and major anthropogenic disturbance of the Danish landscape mean that true reference conditions for lakes (or ‘baseline’ conditions, those found prior to human impacts) can be found only by considering century to millennial timescales.     

Polycyclic musk compounds in higher trophic level aquatic organisms and humans from the United States

Polycyclic musks, 1,3,4,6,7,8-hexahydro-4,6,6,7,8,8-hexamethylcyclopenta[g]-2-benzopyran (HHCB) and 7-acetyl-1,1,3,4,4,6-hexamethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydronaphthalene (AHTN), are used as fragrance ingredients in numerous consumer products such as cleaning agents and personal care products. Studies have reported the widespread occurrence of these musks in surface waters and fish from western European countries. Nevertheless, little is known about their accumulation in humans and wildlife in the United States. In this study, we measured concentrations of HHCB and AHTN in human adipose fat collected from New York City. Furthermore, tissues from marine mammals, water birds, and fish collected from US waters were analyzed to determine the concentrations of HHCB and AHTN. Concentrations of HHCB and AHTN in human adipose fat samples ranged from 12 to 798 and from <5 to 134 ng/g, on a lipid weight basis, respectively. A significant correlation existed between the concentrations of HHCB and AHTN in human adipose fat. Concentrations of HHCB and AHTN were not positively correlated with age or gender of the donors. HHCB was found in tissues of several wildlife species, but not in the livers of polar bear from the Alaskan Arctic. Among wildlife species analyzed, spinner and bottlenose dolphins collected from Florida coastal waters contained measurable concentrations of HHCB.     

Impact of heating and air conditioning system operation and leakage on ventilation and intercompartment transport: studies in unoccupied and occupied Tennessee Valley homes

Forced-air heating and air conditioning (HAC) systems caused an average and maximum increase in air infiltration rates of 1.8- and 4.3-fold, respectively, during brief whole-house studies of tracer gas decay in 39 occupied houses. An average increase in air infiltration rate of 0.33 +/- 0.37 h-1 corresponded to an incremental air leak of 240 m3/h, based on approximate house volume. More detailed tracer gas decay studies were performed in basement, kitchen and bedroom locations of six homes with low air infiltration rates (i.e., less than 0.25 h-1). The HAC mixed the indoor air efficiently between measurement sites. HAC operation also caused 1.1- to 3.6-fold increases in air infiltration rates, corresponding to absolute increases of 0.02 to 0.1 h-1. In an unoccupied research house, three-fold increases in average air infiltration rate with HAC operation (i.e., from 0.13 to 0.36 h-1) were reduced to two-fold (i.e., from 0.10 to 0.18 h-1) by sealing the external HAC unit and crawlspace ductwork system. This sealing also resulted in a 30 percent reduction in crawlspace-to-indoor transport rates with the HAC turned on. Blower door tests indicated a less than 20 percent reduction in house leakage area.     

Measuring good governance: piloting an instrument for evaluating good governance principles

ABSTRACT

As federal, state, and local governments and agencies respond to calls to make decisions and implement programs according to tenets of ‘good governance’, a need exists to develop methods for systematically evaluating performance. ‘Good governance’ has been characterized as including a wide array of principles, which vary across literatures. Comparatively little scholarship has sought to systematically quantify program achievement in accordance with these principles. We develop and present a scale for measuring program achievement in accordance with eight main principles of good governance: inclusivity, fairness, transparency, accountability, legitimacy, direction, performance, and capability. We present the results of a pilot implementation of the scale within the context of two community-based deer management programs. Our results suggest that these principles of good governance may not sort into distinct dimensions in a real-world context.     

Climate change impact on distribution and abundance of wildlife species: an analytical approach using GIS

An analytical approach to modelling the likely impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of wildlife species is described using examples from Scotland. Data for present day distribution of wildlife and habitat are analysed using map data describing geographic variation in climatic factors. Climate data for the present day and under specified scenarios of change are themselves modelled within a GIS; climate modelling uses meteorological station data, climate change scenarios developed from GCMs and a variety of spatial interpolation techniques. The analytical procedure generates hypotheses defining ecological relationships between species distribution and climatic factors (monthly, seasonal and annual data). These relationships are then used to model the distribution of the species directly from climate and predict impacts of climate change. The analysis takes account of both direct impacts of climate on wildlife and indirect effects manifested through habitat response to climate change. The analytical procedure is implemented as a generic tool for inductive spatial analysis in GIS.     

Trace element analysis of soil samples from a stratified archaeological site

Thirty-eight soil samples from a sondage excavated through a 6- metre stratified tell (Gomoiava, in central Yugoslavia) have been analysed for nine biophile elements: Mg, Sr, Zn, Cu, Ni, Mn, Cr, Pb and B. The site was occupied from 7000 BC to 500 AD (calendar years). The results have been collated with earlier estimates of P and Ca, made on a larger series of samples from the same site. The results are discussed in terms of useful information, to supplement that given by phosphate analysis, about stratification and the relationship of the settlement to its environment.It is concluded that leaching probably distorts the results for Ca and Mg. The results for Mn may help to distinguish phosphate accumulation due to man from that due to farm livestock. There is significant accumulation of Sr and B, both of which have potential value, although some of the analytical results for the latter are suspect. The results for Zn, Cu and Ni are highly correlated, with sharp peaks which couid provide precise information about individual strata when more experience of interpretation has been gained. Only Cr and Pb appear to provide little useful information at this site.     

Chromium in intertidal sediments of the Clyde,UK: potential for remobilisation and bioaccumulation

Detailed surveys of intertidal sediments have been performed along the north and south shores of the Inner Clyde estuary, UK. Surface sediment data reveal significant spatial variation in Cr content and an association with major sediment characteristics and location within the estuary. Depth variation for Cr and other heavy metals cannot be explained by variation in major geochemical controls such as grain size and organic matter and highlights the impact of historical contamination on sediment quality. These elevated levels at depth may still have environmental impact through redox-reactivity, in association with iron and manganese. Sequential extraction of sediments and pore water analysis of Cr(VI) and Cr(III) provide detailed information on release potential from the sediments. The implication of Cr mobility for biota in the estuary has been assessed by the analysis of a common marine bivalve, Mytilus edulis (Blue Mussel) and a burrowing polychaete, Nereis diversicolor (rag worm) from a number of survey sites. Bioconcentration factors for Mytilus indicate that the weakly held portion of sediment Cr is available for uptake and in the case of Nereis, bioaccumulation appears to be inhibited by sediment organic matter.     

Biochemical examination of fetal skin biopsy specimens obtained by fetoscopy: Use of the method for analysis of keratins and filaggrin

This paper describes a method for biochemical analysis of proteins from fetal skin biopsy samples. The method has wide potential application for diagnosis of disorders with a known protein abnormality detectable by protein staining or a specific antibody. Analysis requires a single 1 mm biopsy, is rapid (2 days) and extremely sensitive. In the present study, fetal skin biopsies from normal fetuses and a fetus at risk for lamellar ichthyosis were obtained. The epidermis or hairs with attached follicular cells were dissected from the remaining skin. Proteins were extracted and separated by SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Proteins from duplicate gels were transferred to nitrocellulose and immunostained for the acidic and basic keratins and for the keratin filament associated protein, filaggrin, using monoclonal antibodies. All samples contained keratins typical of fetal epidermis at 20 weeks gestation. Presence of filaggrin is variable at this age and depends on the presence of keratinized cells of hair canals. No keratin abnormalities in the fetus at risk for lamellar ichthyosis were detected, however, in one presumably normal biopsy, an abnormally low proportion of the 67 kd keratin and the presence of follicular keratins were evident. These results demonstrate that biochemical analysis of fetal biopsies is possible, thus increasing the diagnostic potential of the fetal biopsy procedure for disorders in which a known protein or antigen is altered in utero.