Human reliability analysis: A critique and review for managers

In running our increasingly complex business systems, formal risk analyses and risk management techniques are becoming more important part to managers: all managers, not just those charged with risk management. It is also becoming apparent that human behaviour is often a root or significant contributing cause of system failure. This latter observation is not novel; for more than 30 years it has been recognised that the role of human operations in safety critical systems is so important that they should be explicitly modelled as part of the risk assessment of plant operations. This has led to the development of a range of methods under the general heading of human reliability analysis (HRA) to account for the effects of human error in risk and reliability analysis. The modelling approaches used in HRA, however, tend to be focussed on easily describable sequential, generally low-level tasks, which are not the main source of systemic errors. Moreover, they focus on errors rather than the effects of all forms of human behaviour. In this paper we review and discuss HRA methodologies, arguing that there is a need for considerable further research and development before they meet the needs of modern risk and reliability analyses and are able to provide managers with the guidance they need to manage complex systems safely. We provide some suggestions for how work in this area should develop. But above all we seek to make the management community fully aware of assumptions implicit in human reliability analysis and its limitations.     

Phytoremediating a copper mine soil with Brassica juncea L., compost and biochar

The soils at a depleted copper mine in Touro (Galicia, Spain) are chemically degraded. In order to determine the effect of amendments and vegetation on the chemical characteristics of a mine soil and on the plant uptake of metals, a greenhouse experiment was carried out for 3 months. A settling pond soil was amended with different percentages of a compost and biochar mixture and vegetated with Brassica juncea L. The results showed that the untreated settling pond soil was polluted by Cu. Amendments and planting mustards decreased the pseudototal concentration of this metal, reduced the extreme soil acidity and increased the soil concentrations of C and TN. Both treatments also decreased the CaCl₂-extractable Co, Cu and Ni concentrations. However, the amendments increased the pseudototal concentration of Zn in the soil, provided by the compost that was used. The results also showed that mustards extracted Ni efficiently from soils, suggesting that B. juncea L. is a good phytoextractor of Ni in mine soils.     

Analysis of water flow paths: methodology and example calculations for a potential geological repository in Sweden

Safety assessment related to the siting of a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel deep in the bedrock requires identification of potential flow paths and the associated travel times for radionuclides originating at repository depth. Using the Laxemar candidate site in Sweden as a case study, this paper describes modeling methodology, data integration, and the resulting water flow models, focusing on the Quaternary deposits and the upper 150 m of the bedrock. Example simulations identify flow paths to groundwater discharge areas and flow paths in the surface system. The majority of the simulated groundwater flow paths end up in the main surface waters and along the coastline, even though the particles used to trace the flow paths are introduced with a uniform spatial distribution at a relatively shallow depth. The calculated groundwater travel time, determining the time available for decay and retention of radionuclides, is on average longer to the coastal bays than to other biosphere objects at the site. Further, it is demonstrated how GIS-based modeling can be used to limit the number of surface flow paths that need to be characterized for safety assessment. Based on the results, the paper discusses an approach for coupling the present models to a model for groundwater flow in the deep bedrock.     

A qualitative tool combining an interaction matrix and a GIS to map vulnerability to traffic induced air pollution

Local authorities and transport planners need fast and straightforward tools to perform their preliminary air quality assessments. Such tools are required to provide an initial impression of the local air quality and to highlight areas requiring a more rigorous investigation. This paper presents a technique to develop such a tool, for performing an initial assessment of air quality due to traffic in an urban area. The technique combines an interaction matrix methodology as developed for rock engineering systems, with Geographical Information System (GIS) map overlaying. This interaction matrix methodology incorporates a total system approach, which identifies the main parameters and quantifies the interactions between them. Weighting values for these parameters are obtained either through parametric studies, using numerical modelling, or from engineering judgement. These weightings are applied to spatial datasets for a study area using a GIS. The GIS results are presented in the form of a vulnerability map, which highlights the areas susceptible to poor air quality. This visual interpretation of the results is ideal for local authorities, who have to report to a wide range of non-specialists in the field, for example, planners, councillors and the public. The vulnerability map compares favourably with pollutant concentration patterns, obtained from an advanced dispersion model.     

Ontogenetic changes in social behaviour in the forest tent caterpillar,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Malacosoma disstria</Emphasis>

Many animals, including gregarious caterpillars, begin life in groups and become increasingly solitary as they grow larger. These ontogenetic changes in social behaviour suggest that the costs and benefits of grouping change with increasing individual size. Forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) colonies exhibit complex social behaviour during the early larval instars, using pheromone trails to move together between temporary bivouacs and feeding sites, and break up as the caterpillars grow. We demonstrate changes in individual responses to cues from conspecifics that explain changes in aggregation during caterpillar development. We used Markov chain analysis to test the influence of pheromone trails and colony-mates on an individual caterpillars tendency to switch between quiescence, searching, walking and spinning. Pheromone-laden silk trails increased the tendency to begin locomotion, whereas colony-mates increased switching from activity to quiescence. Trails also influenced the form taken by locomotor behaviour, and promoted directed walking over searching. Social cues thus increase the efficiency of individual locomotion. Younger larvae were more quiescent and more reluctant to walk in the absence of trails than were older insects. An increase in independent locomotion as the larvae grow provides a mechanism to explain colony break-up and points to an ontogenetic shift in the internal processes driving behaviour. Scaling relationships suggest that many of the benefits associated with group-living in caterpillars decrease as individuals grow larger, providing an adaptive explanation for observed ontogenetic changes in social behaviour.Communicated by N. Wedell     

Female dispersal and reproductive success in wild western lowland gorillas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gorilla gorilla gorilla</Emphasis>)

This paper presents data on the dispersal patterns and reproductive success of western lowland gorilla females from a long-term study at Mbeli Bai in the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, Republic of Congo. We find that female natal and secondary transfer is common. Female immigration rates are negatively related to group size, and emigration rates are positively related to group size, with the net result that larger groups are losing females and smaller groups are gaining females. Furthermore, females transferring between known groups show a preference for significantly smaller groups. However, there is no effect of group size on female reproductive success. Male protection and male quality are considered important in determining female transfer decisions. The case for infanticide is argued and females exhibit strategies that appear to minimise the probability of infanticide following the death of the silverback. Exclusively single-male groups and group formation through female acquisition by solitary males may bias female transfer to lone silverbacks and small groups. The effects of group size on female dispersal and reproductive success are not wholly consistent with an argument for increased foraging costs, and group size effects are more parsimoniously explained by demographic factors. Male protection from intra-group aggression is the most likely factor underlying grouping patterns across gorilla taxa, but differences in population structure and male reproductive strategies may account for inter-specific variation. We stress the need for intra-specific comparisons and more complete data sets on western lowland gorilla feeding behaviour.Communicated by S. Boinski     

Spatial patterns of organic chlorine and chloride in Swedish forest soil

The concentration of organic carbon, organic chlorine and chloride was determined in Swedish forest soil in the southern part of Sweden and the spatial distribution of the variables were studied. The concentration of organically bound chlorine was positively correlated to the organic carbon content, which is in line with previous studies. However, the spatial distribution patterns strongly indicate that some other variable adds structure to the spatial distribution of organic chlorine. The distribution patterns for chloride strongly resembled the distribution of organic chlorine. The spatial distribution of chloride in soil depends on the deposition pattern which in turn depends on prevailing wind-direction, amount of precipitation and the distance from the sea. This suggests that the occurrence of organic chlorine in soil is influenced by the deposition of chloride or some variable that co-varies with chloride. Two clearly confined strata were found in the area: the concentrations of organic chlorine and chloride in the western area were significantly higher than in the eastern area. No such difference among the two areas was seen regarding the carbon content.     

Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change

This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.     

Brooding behaviour and reproductive success in two species of free-living simultaneous hermaphrodites

Although polyclads are amongst the most structurally simple of the triploblastic metazoans, they adopt a wide range of reproductive strategies. Parental care behaviour in this group is yet to be quantified for any species. We assessed the significance of brooding behaviour to the reproductive success of two free-living marine flatworms. Echinoplana celerrima and Stylochus pygmaeus were collected from the field and placed in pairs in containers of filtered seawater where they laid batches of eggs. Both parents were then removed from half of the containers and the brooding behaviour and hatching success of eggs were quantified. There were interspecific differences in brooding behaviour. Egg masses were covered by one E. celerrima parent for 12 ± 2% of time, whereas egg masses of S. pygmaeus were covered by one or both parents simultaneously for 85 ± 8% of time. Egg batches were abandoned by both species immediately prior to the onset of hatching (10–12 days). Hatching success was generally high (~90%) and brooding did not enhance the hatching success of eggs. We assessed the significance of parental care to hatching success of E. celerrima egg masses in the presence of three potential egg predators; in the presence of other organisms. E. celerrima devoted less time to brooding; however, hatching success was not affected. The amount of time spent brooding eggs differed greatly between the two polyclad species but was not essential to their reproductive success under benign conditions. Parental care may be of adaptive value under more stressful environmental conditions commonly experienced in estuarine environments such as lowered salinity, increased hypoxia or turbidity. Covering egg batches may play an additional role of advertising sexual status and a willingness to care for eggs.