A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models.     

Use of the Light Absorption Coefficient to Monitor Elemental Carbon and PM2.5—Example of Santiago de Chile

Abstract

The optical absorption coefficient, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm, and elemental carbon (EC) have been measured simultaneously during winter and spring of 2000 in the western part of Santiago, Chile (Pudahuel district). The optical measurements were carried out with a low-cost instrument recently developed at the University of Santiago. From the data, a site-specific mass absorption coefficient of 4.45 ± 0.01 m²/g has been found for EC. In addition, a mass absorption coefficient of 1.02 ± 0.03 m²/g has been obtained for PM_2.5. These coefficients can be used during the colder months (May-August) to obtain EC concentration or PM_2.5 from a measurement of the light absorption coefficient (σ_a). The high correlation that has been found between these variables indicates that σ_a is a good indicator of the degree of contamination of urbanized areas.

The data also show an increase in PM_2.5 and EC concentration during winter and an increase in the ratio of EC to PM_2.5. When the EC/PM_2.5 ratio is calculated during rush hour (7:00 a.m.-11:00 a.m.) and during part of the night (9:00 p.m.-2:00 a.m.), it is found that the increase is caused by higher concentration levels of EC at night. These results suggest that the rise in the EC concentration is caused by emissions from heating and air mass transport of pollution from other parts of the city, while traffic contribution remains approximately constant.     

When conservation management becomes contraindicated: impact of food supplementation on health of endangered wildlife

Understanding the conditions that force the implementation of management actions and their efficiency is crucial for conservation of endangered species. Wildlife managers are widely and increasingly using food supplementation for such species because the potentially immediate benefits may translate into rapid conservation improvements. Supplementary feeding can also pose risks eventually promoting undesired, unexpected, subtle, or indirect, and often unnoticed, effects that are generally poorly understood. For two decades, intensive food supplementation has been used in attempting to improve the breeding productivity of the Spanish Imperial Eagle, Aquila adalberti, one of the most endangered birds of prey in the world. Here, we examined the impact of this intensive management action on nestling health, including contamination, immunodepression, and acquisition of disease agents derived from supplementation techniques and provisioned food. Contrary to management expectations, we found that fed individuals were often inadvertently "medicated" with pharmaceuticals (antibiotics and antiparasitics) contained in supplementary food (domestic rabbits). Individuals fed with medicated rabbits showed a depressed immune system and a high prevalence and richness of pathogens compared with those with no or safe supplementary feeding using non-medicated wild rabbits. A higher presence of antibiotics (fluoroquinolones) was found in sick as opposed to healthy individuals among eaglets with supplementary feeding, which points directly toward a causal effect of these drugs in disease and other health impairments. This study represents a telling example of well-meaning management strategies not based on sound scientific evidence becoming a "contraindicated" action with detrimental repercussions undermining possible beneficial effects by increasing the impact of stochastic factors on extinction risk of endangered wildlife.     

Prediction models of CO, SPM and SO2 concentrations in the Campo de Gibraltar Region, Spain: a multiple comparison strategy

The 'Campo de Gibraltar' region is a very industrialized area where very few air pollution studies have been carried out. Up to date, no model has been developed in order to predict air pollutant levels in the different towns spread in the region. Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) series have been investigated (years 1999-2000-2001). Multilayer perceptron models (MLPs) with backpropagation learning rule have been used. A resampling strategy with two-fold crossvalidation allowed the statistical comparison of the different models considered in this study. Artificial neural networks (ANN) models were compared with Persistence and ARIMA models and also with models based on standard Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) over test sets with data that had not been used in the training stage. The models based on ANNs showed better capability of generalization than those based on MLR. The designed procedure of random resampling permits an adequate and robust multiple comparison of the tested models. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality of data and to transform exogenous variables into significant and independent components. Short-term predictions were better than medium-term predictions in the case of CO and SO(2) series. Conversely, medium-term predictions were better in the case of SPM concentrations. The predictions are significantly promising (e.g., d (SPM 24-ahead) = 0.906, d (CO 1-ahead) = 0.891, d (SO2 1-ahead) = 0.851).     

Vegetable fibres from agricultural residues as thermo-mechanical reinforcement in recycled polypropylene-based green foams

Novel lightweight composite foams based on recycled polypropylene reinforced with cellulosic fibres obtained from agricultural residues were prepared and characterized. These composites, initially prepared by melt-mixing recycled polypropylene with variable fibre concentrations (10-25 wt.%), were foamed by high-pressure CO₂ dissolution, a clean process which avoids the use of chemical blowing agents. With the aim of studying the influence of the fibre characteristics on the resultant foams, two chemical treatments were applied to the barley straw in order to increase the α-cellulose content of the fibres. The chemical composition, morphology and thermal stability of the fibres and composites were analyzed. Results indicate that fibre chemical treatment and later foaming of the composites resulted in foams with characteristic closed-cell microcellular structures, their specific storage modulus significantly increasing due to the higher stiffness of the fibres. The addition of the fibres also resulted in an increase in the glass transition temperature of PP in both the solid composites and more significantly in the foams.     

Stochastic bycatch, informational asymmetry, and discarding

The existing literature (i) examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and (ii) treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels. Using a dynamic representative agent model in a two-stock resource, this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters, one of which imposes a stochastic “technological externality” (bycatch) on the other. In addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry, three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case: taxes, trip limits, and value-based quotas. Implementation and enforcement costs aside, taxes dominate both types of quota, and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding. In simulations, relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process, differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks, relative efficiency of the harvester types, and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins.     

A FINITE ELEMENT MODEL OF CONTAMINANT MOVEMENT IN GROUNDWATER1

ABSTRACT. Transient, two-dimensional solutions are developed which describe the movement and distribution of a conservative substance in a stream-aquifer system. The solutions are obtained by solving sequentially the groundwater flow and mass transport equations. A variational approach in conjunction with the finite element method is used to solve the groundwater flow equation. Galerkin's approach coupled with the finite element method is used to solve the mass transport equation. Linear approximated triangular elements and a centered scheme of numerical integration are employed to calculate the hydraulic head distribution and the concentration of solute in the flow region. The linear approximation used to define the concentration function within each element is not appropriate for cases involving steep concentration gradients. For such cases, higher order approximations are necessary to assure the continuity of gradients across interelemental boundaries. Numerical examples that illustrate the applicability of the model are presented.     

Biased sperm use by polyandrous queens of the ant<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Proformica longiseta</Emphasis>

The occurrence and genetic effects of polyandry were studied in the ant Proformica longiseta using three microsatellite markers. The average queen mating frequency (QMF) estimated from the sperm dissected from the spermathecae of 61 queens was 2.4 with 69% of the queens being multiply mated. QMF estimated from worker offspring in a subsample of eight monogynous colonies was 3.5, but the effective paternity (m_e,p) was only 1.23. The difference between these values reflected unequal sperm use by the queens. Most colonies of P. longiseta were polygynous and the average relatedness among workers was 0.35. Polyandry thus added only marginally to the genetic diversity of colonies, and our results gave little support to the genetic-variability hypothesis for explaining polyandry. Diploid male load was low, as only 1% of males were diploid. A large majority (92%) of nests produced one sex only, with males produced in colonies that had higher than average worker relatedness. This contradicted the predictions derived from worker control of sex ratios. Males produced enough sperm to fill the spermathecae of several queens. Thus, the results indicated that diploid male load, sperm limitation and sex ratio conflict are also unlikely explanations of polyandry. Plausible hypotheses for polyandry include mating by convenience, as the sex ratio is male biased and the mating costs to a female can be low because the females are wingless and have no mating flight. The observed unequal sperm use furthermore points to sperm choice and sperm competition as important factors in the evolution of polyandry.     

The possible influence of volcanic emissions on atmospheric aerosols in the city of Colima, Mexico

An elemental composition study of atmospheric aerosols from the City of Colima, in the Western Coast of Mexico, is presented. Samples of PM(15)-PM(2.5) and PM(2.5) were collected with Stacked Filter Units (SFU) of the Davis design, in urban and rural sites, the latter located between the City of Colima and the Volcán de Colima, an active volcano. Elemental analyses were carried out using Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE). The gravimetric mass concentrations for the fine fraction were slightly higher in the urban site, while the mean concentrations in the coarse fraction were equal within the uncertainties. High Cl contents were determined in the coarse fraction, a fact also observed in emissions from the Volcán de Colima by other authors. In addition to average elemental concentrations, cluster analysis based on elemental contents was performed, with wind speed and direction data, showing that there is an industrial contributor to aerosols North of the urban area. Moreover, a contribution from the volcanic emissions was identified from the grouping of S, Cl, Cu, and Zn, elements associated to particles emitted by the Volcán de Colima.