Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Demonstrating Contaminant Degradation at an MGP Site With Metabolic Gas Flux and Radio Carbon Dating

Obtaining lines of evidence indicating that contamination in sediment environments is degrading and being transformed to less toxic forms is an important component of building support for a monitored natural recovery remedy for contaminated sediments. This project was a field demonstration of manufactured gas plant contaminant degradation in river sediments using metabolic gas flux and was performed in an urban area section of a river in northeastern Indiana. CO₂ sorbent traps were deployed to measure CO₂ flux from the river sediments. Sediment samples were collected and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations and for microbial community composition using molecular techniques. The results showed that the deployment was successful, measuring CO₂ flux at all sediment locations and demonstrating that microbial contaminant degrading activity was occurring in the sediments. Radio carbon dating showed a significant portion of the CO₂ being generated (approximately 19–27 percent) was the result of fossil fuel degradation. Molecular results showed that the microbial community consisted of phylotypes known to be associated with monocyclic aromatic and PAH degradation. ©2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: literature review

Approximately 3000 papers concerning multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database and classified by MCDA method and environmental application using text mining in R. Stemming and stop word removal techniques were used to remove irrelevant text from the literature. Trends in MCDA methods (AHP/ANP, TOPSIS, outranking, MAUT/MAVT) associated with specific environmental applications (water, air, energy, natural resources, and waste management) or interventions/tools applications (stakeholders, strategies, sustainability, and GIS) were identified. The results show a linear growth in the share of MCDA papers in environmental science across all application areas. Furthermore, the results show that AHP/ANP and MAUT/MAVT are the most frequently mentioned MCDA methods in the literature. For environmental applications, the results showed that natural resource and waste management keywords were, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed applications within the MCDA papers. For intervention/tool applications, we found that keywords associated with ‘strategy’ and ‘GIS’ applications are, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed keywords within the MCDA papers. The authors found that MCDA method keywords were evenly distributed across the environmental and intervention/tool applications, indicating a lack of preference in the environmental field for use of specific MCDA methods. This paper demonstrates that text mining is an applicable tool to assess specific textual trends and patterns when analyzing larger bodies of MCDA literature.     

Vetoing the future: political constraints and renewable energy

Despite the increased importance of and attention to renewable energy, its share in the overall energy mix has varied significantly across countries and over time. There are many determinants of clean energy transitions; this study focuses on political constraints. Here it is argued that political systems that have fewer political constraints have fewer access points through which powerful status quo veto players can slow the progress of clean energy reforms. To test the theory, a hierarchical model is applied on a dataset of 125 countries over four decades. The results provide significant support for the theory. Furthermore, the effects for political constraints hold even when we distinguish between hydro and non-hydro renewable sources and control for regime type. This study builds on research that recognizes the importance of politics in understanding the challenges and opportunities of clean energy reform.     

The Tea Party versus Agenda 21: local groups and sustainability policies in U.S. cities

As local governments have moved toward adopting sustainability policies, there have been some cases where local Tea Parties have emerged as aggressive and strident opponents of such changes. Looking broadly at the Tea Party movement across the United States and systematically measuring its influence in urban America, we assess each Tea Party chapter’s capacity – its ability to convert resources into meaningful political advocacy. Data is derived from surveys of political elites in 50 cities as well as from determining the level of sustainability programming in each of these same cities. Evidence demonstrates that the Tea Party has not had a significant impact on city policymaking in the area of sustainability. Rather, the typical Tea Party chapter appears to be at best a modest presence in local politics.     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Implications of Conceptual Channel Representation on SWAT Streamflow and Sediment Modeling

Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling to channel dimensions to demonstrate how a conceptual representation of a watershed system affects streamflow and sediment modeling. Results showed the amount of uncertainty and equifinality strongly responded to channel dimensions. On the other hand, the model performance did not significantly vary with the changes in the channel representation due to the degree of freedom allowed by the conceptual nature of hydrologic modeling in the parameter calibration. Such findings demonstrated good modeling performance statistics do not necessarily mean small output uncertainty, and partial improvements in the watershed representation may neither increase modeling accuracy nor reduce uncertainty. We also showed the equifinality and uncertainty of hydrologic modeling are case‐dependent rather than specific to models or regions, suggesting great caution should be used when attempting to transfer uncertainty analysis results to other modeling studies, especially for ungauged watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Evaluation of Existing and Modified Wetland Equations in the SWAT Model

The ability to accurately simulate flow and nutrient removal in treatment wetlands within an agricultural, watershed‐scale model is needed to develop effective plans for meeting nutrient reduction goals associated with protection of drinking water supplies and reduction of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. The objectives of this study were to incorporate new equations for wetland hydrology and nutrient removal in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), compare model performance using original and improved equations, and evaluate the ramifications of errors in watershed and tile drain simulation on prediction of NO₃‐N dynamics in wetlands. The modified equations produced Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.88 to 0.99 for daily NO₃‐N load predictions, and percent bias values generally less than 6%. However, statistical improvement over the original equations was marginal and both old and new equations provided accurate simulations. The new equations reduce the model's dependence on detailed monitoring data and hydrologic calibration. Additionally, the modified equations increase SWAT's versatility by incorporating a weir equation and an irreducible nutrient concentration and temperature coefficient. Model improvements enhance the utility of SWAT for simulating flow and nutrients in wetlands and other impoundments, although performance is limited by the accuracy of inflow and NO₃‐N predictions from the contributing watershed. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Carbon dioxide emission tallies for 210 U.S. coal-fired power plants: A comparison of two accounting methods

Annual CO₂ emission tallies for 210 coal-fired power plants during 2009 were more accurately calculated from fuel consumption records reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) than measurements from Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems (CEMS) reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Results from these accounting methods for individual plants vary by ± 10.8%. Although the differences systematically vary with the method used to certify flue-gas flow instruments in CEMS, additional sources of CEMS measurement error remain to be identified. Limitations of the EIA fuel consumption data are also discussed. Consideration of weighing, sample collection, laboratory analysis, emission factor, and stock adjustment errors showed that the minimum error for CO₂ emissions calculated from the fuel consumption data ranged from ± 1.3% to ± 7.2% with a plant average of ± 1.6%. This error might be reduced by 50% if the carbon content of coal delivered to U.S. power plants were reported.

Implications:

Potentially, this study might inform efforts to regulate CO₂ emissions (such as CO₂ performance standards or taxes) and more immediately, the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule where large coal-fired power plants currently use CEMS to measure CO₂ emissions. Moreover, if, as suggested here, the flue-gas flow measurement limits the accuracy of CO₂ emission tallies from CEMS, then the accuracy of other emission tallies from CEMS (such as SO₂, NO_x, and Hg) would be similarly affected. Consequently, improved flue gas flow measurements are needed to increase the reliability of emission measurements from CEMS.     

Contribution of Nitrate and Carbonaceous Species to PM2.5 Observed in Canadian Cities

ABSTRACT

At a variety of Canadian monitoring sites, carbonaceous compounds were estimated to account for an average of 50% of fine particle mass. These estimates were determined by subtracting the total fine particle mass associated with inorganic compounds from the total fine mass determined gravimetrically. This approach, which yields an upper limit estimate of the total amount of carbon-related mass was necessary since particulate carbon was not measured in the Canadian National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) network. In this paper, total carbon estimates are evaluated against organic and elemental carbon measurements at locations in the Greater Vancouver area and Toronto. In addition, particle nitrate measurements at seven Canadian locations are used to determine the importance of nitrate relative to total mass and to examine the sampling artifacts due to the loss of particle nitrate from Teflon filters used in the NAPS di-chotomous samplers.

Measurements of organic and elemental carbon indicated that the total carbon estimation approach provides representative estimates of the average contribution by carbonaceous material to the total fine and coarse mass. The average total carbon among all Vancouver area measurements (N = 225) was 4.28 μg m^-3, while the estimated value was 4.34 μg m^-3. There was a larger discrepancy between Toronto total carbon measurements (12.1 μg m^-3) and estimates (8.8 μg m^-3), which is attributed in part to sampling of particles above 10 mm in diameter. However, the R² relating the measurements and estimates was about 0.71 for both areas. Linear regression slopes of 0.98 for Vancouver and 0.78 for Toronto (nonsignificant intercepts) indicate little bias in the Vancouver estimates, but a tendency for underestimation as the observed total carbon concentration increased in Toronto.

Annually, nitrate was responsible for 17% and 12% of the fine mass in the Vancouver area and Ontario, respectively. In contrast, at two rural locations in southern Quebec and Nova Scotia, only 6% of fine mass was associated with nitrate. Due to filter losses, nitrate concentrations determined through the NAPS dichot sampling were much lower than actual concentrations (0.44 μg m^-3 vs. 2.63 μg m^-3). As a result of these losses (attributed mostly to loss during laboratory storage), previous total carbon estimates for the Canadian NAPS sites were likely to have been overestimated on average by about 10%.