Sediment concentration and turbidity changes during culvert removals

The concentrations of sediment and turbidity in stream water were monitored during culvert removals to determine the short term effects of road obliteration. Sediment concentration was measured at 11 stream crossings among two locations in Idaho and one in Washington. Sediment concentration immediately below the culvert outlet exceeded levels above the culvert outlet by at least three orders of magnitude at all stream crossings. Sediment yields ranged from 170 to less than 1kg in the 24-h period following culvert removal. Turbidity exceeded the regulatory limits during culvert removal at all locations monitored in this study and remained above the limits beyond the monitoring periods of 24h at four of the locations. Sediment concentrations 100m downstream of the culvert outlet were reduced by an order of magnitude, but did not change the turbidity values sufficiently to meet regulatory limits. Sediment concentrations an average of 810m downstream of the culvert outlet were similar to sediment concentrations above the culvert for the entire excavation period and turbidity regulations were met. Mitigation consisting of two straw bales placed in the stream caused a significant reduction in sediment yield from an average of 67kg to an average of 1.6kg.     

A two-agent dynamic model with an invasive weed diffusion externality: an application to Yellow Starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L.) in New Mexico

This paper presents a bioeconomic model for two agents, a cattle rancher and a non-rancher, with interdependencies between their individual effort of invasive weed management and profitability. Dynamic simulations allow us to find numerically the optimal effort of weed control over a 5-year time horizon under a variety of beginning infestation levels. In a base-case scenario without governmental cost-share of control costs, we find that efforts to control the weed are not profitable. The base-case scenarios also indicate that grazing contributes to giving the invasive weed a competitive edge. A second series of simulations include incentive payments for weed control which are set at the minimum level required to have a net positive impact on the rancher's profitability. From these simulations, we find that the level of infestation impacts the size of the incentive necessary to get the agent to control the weeds and that the incentive payments impact the level of effort of the rancher. In addition, results reveal that the higher incentive payments for lower levels of weed infestations reduce the total cumulative incentive payments over time. Efficient policies directed towards management of invasive weeds may need to be adjusted for each individual case.     

Visual preference and ecological assessments for designed alternative brownfield rehabilitations

This paper describes an integrative method for quantifying, analyzing, and comparing the effects of alternative rehabilitation approaches with visual preference. The method was applied to a portion of a major industrial area located in southern Italy. Four alternative approaches to rehabilitation (alternative designs) were developed and analyzed. The scenarios consisted of the cleanup of the brownfields plus: (1) the addition of ground cover species; (2) the addition of ground cover species and a few trees randomly distributed; (3) the addition of ground cover species and a few trees in small groups; and (4) the addition of ground cover species and several trees in large groups. The approaches were analyzed and compared to the baseline condition through the use of cost-surface modeling (CSM) and visual preference assessment (VPA). Statistical results showed that alternatives that were more ecologically functional for forest bird species dispersal were also more visually preferable. Some differences were identified based on user groups and location of residence. The results of the study are used to identify implications for enhancing both ecological attributes and visual preferences of rehabilitating landscapes through planning and design.     

Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.     

Decision framework for evaluating the macroeconomic risks and policy impacts of cyber attacks

Increased reliance on the Internet for critical infrastructure and the global nature of supply chains provides an opportunity for adversaries to leverage dependencies and gain access to vital infrastructure. Traditional approaches to assessing risk in the cyber domain, including estimation of impacts, fall short due to uncertainty in how interconnected systems react to cyber attack. This paper describes a method to represent the pathways of disruption propagation, evaluate the macroeconomic impact of cyber threats and aid in selecting among various cybersecurity policies. Based on state of the art agent-based modeling, multicriteria decision analysis, and macroeconomic modeling tools, this framework provides dynamic macroeconomic, demographic and fiscal insights regarding shocks caused by cyber attacks to the regional economy over time. The interlinkage of these models will provide a robust and adaptive system that allows policy makers to evaluate complex issues such as cybersecurity threats and their impacts on the geopolitical, social, environmental, and macroeconomic landscape.     

Using the Language of NIMBY: A topic for research,not an activity for researchers

During the 1990s the social scientific literature on local opposition to proposed developments has moved from a focus on individual motives to a concern with the social causes and significance of such protest. However, the language of NIMBYism is still widely used by researchers. Drawing on data from a case study of local responses to a proposed new road the central role that the language of NIMBY plays within siting disputes is illustrated, and it is concluded that academics interested in understanding the dynamics and process of local development disputes might usefully study participants' use of NIMBY, but should distance themselves from the activity of attributing NIMBYism to certain parties. In addition those concerned with managing, mediating or resolving local disputes should also steer clear of the language of NIMBY and engage with the diversity and complexity of local concerns and interests.     

Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US5 and US 5 and US 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US2 and US 2 and US 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.     

Knowledge co‐production and boundary work to promote implementation of conservation plans

Knowledge co‐production and boundary work offer planners a new frame for critically designing a social process that fosters collaborative implementation of resulting plans. Knowledge co‐production involves stakeholders from diverse knowledge systems working iteratively toward common vision and action. Boundary work is a means of creating permeable knowledge boundaries that satisfy the needs of multiple social groups while guarding the functional integrity of contributing knowledge systems. Resulting products are boundary objects of mutual interest that maintain coherence across all knowledge boundaries. We examined how knowledge co‐production and boundary work can bridge the gap between planning and implementation and promote cross‐sectoral cooperation. We applied these concepts to well‐established stages in regional conservation planning within a national scale conservation planning project aimed at identifying areas for conserving rivers and wetlands of South Africa and developing an institutional environment for promoting their conservation. Knowledge co‐production occurred iteratively over 4 years in interactive stake‐holder workshops that included co‐development of national freshwater conservation goals and spatial data on freshwater biodiversity and local conservation feasibility; translation of goals into quantitative inputs that were used in Marxan to select draft priority conservation areas; review of draft priority areas; and packaging of resulting map products into an atlas and implementation manual to promote application of the priority area maps in 37 different decision‐making contexts. Knowledge co‐production stimulated dialogue and negotiation and built capacity for multi‐scale implementation beyond the project. The resulting maps and information integrated diverse knowledge types of over 450 stakeholders and represented >1000 years of collective experience. The maps provided a consistent national source of information on priority conservation areas for rivers and wetlands and have been applied in 25 of the 37 use contexts since their launch just over 3 years ago. When framed as a knowledge co‐production process supported by boundary work, regional conservation plans can be developed into valuable boundary objects that offer a tangible tool for multi‐agency cooperation around conservation. Our work provides practical guidance for promoting uptake of conservation science and contributes to an evidence base on how conservation efforts can be improved.     

Uncovering blind spots in urban carbon management: the role of consumption-based carbon accounting in Bristol,UK

The rapid urbanisation of the twentieth century, along with the spread of high-consumption urban lifestyles, has led to cities becoming the dominant drivers of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing these impacts is crucial, but production-based frameworks of carbon measurement and mitigation—which encompass only a limited part of cities’ carbon footprints—are much more developed and widely applied than consumption-based approaches that consider the embedded carbon effectively imported into a city. Frequently, therefore, cities are left blind to the importance of their wider consumption-related climate impacts, while at the same time left lacking effective tools to reduce them. To explore the relevance of these issues, we implement methodologies for assessing production- and consumption-based emissions at the city-level and estimate the associated emissions trajectories for Bristol, a major UK city, from 2000 to 2035. We develop mitigation scenarios targeted at reducing the former, considering potential energy, carbon and financial savings in each case. We then compare these mitigation potentials with local government ambitions and Bristol’s consumption-based emissions trajectory. Our results suggest that the city’s consumption-based emissions are three times the production-based emissions, largely due to the impacts of imported food and drink. We find that low-carbon investments of circa £3 billion could reduce production-based emissions by 25% in 2035. However, we also find that this represents <10% of Bristol’s forecast consumption-based emissions for 2035 and is approximately equal to the mitigation achievable by eliminating the city’s current levels of food waste. Such observations suggest that incorporating consumption-based emission statistics into cities’ accounting and decision-making processes could uncover largely unrecognised opportunities for mitigation that are likely to be essential for achieving deep decarbonisation.