Integrated Assessment of Swiss GHG Mitigation Policies After 2012

The residential sector presents a great potential for greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation. We perform an integrated assessment of different mitigation policies for Switzerland focusing on the residential sector. We analyze the case of pure incentive taxes and technical regulations. For our analysis, we have coupled a general equilibrium model with a Swiss residential energy model. We find that a progressive GHG tax of more than 200 USD2000/tCO₂ eq is necessary to reach a target of 50% reduction of GHG emissions in 2050. Finally, we also find that efficiency-based technical regulations provide limited additional abatement incentives.     

Predicting constant decay rates of coarse woody debris—A meta-analysis approach with a mixed model

The aim of the study is the estimation of decay rates for coarse woody debris in large forest regions. These rates, together with estimations of the amount of deadwood, can be used to calculate the release of carbon from that pool into the atmosphere. The model can be used for predictions of decomposition rate constants in a wide range of forest areas (e.g. in process based ecological models, reporting of GHG-emissions), as only easily available predictor variables were used in the regression.Based on an intensive literature research a meta-analysis on influencing factors controlling the constant decay rate of coarse woody debris was set up. The included studies differed significantly in the survey methods as well as in the geographical origin. 39 studies were collected, 30 appeared in North America and nine in Europe. Based on these studies 291 observations of the remaining fraction of coarse woody debris were collected.To quantify the effects that influence the decomposition rates a nonlinear mixed effects model was constructed. Only physiologically interpretable variables were included. With this approach it was possible to determine influencing effects from mean temperature in July, annual rainfall (as quadratic term), diameter of woody material and grouping into hardwoods or conifers and mass- or density loss were significant variables. The mixed effects model also allowed an estimation of the species-specific effects on the decomposition process. These random effects are given for 42 tree species. The degrees of freedom were used efficiently. The model explains 79.6% of the variance and is superior to a comparable multiple regression model.     

SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) infection: is fetal surgery in times of national disasters reasonable?

Even though the global COVID-19 pandemic may affect how medical care is delivered in general, most countries try to maintain steady access for women to routine pregnancy care, including fetal anomaly screening. This means that, also during this pandemic, fetal anomalies will be detected, and that discussions regarding invasive genetic testing and possibly fetal therapy will need to take place. For patients, concerns about Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus 2 will add to the anxiety caused by the diagnosis of a serious fetal anomaly. Yet, also for fetal medicine teams the situation gets more complex as they must weigh up the risks and benefits to the fetus as well as the mother, while managing a changing evidence base and logistic challenges in their healthcare system.     

Quantitative PCR to estimate copepod feeding

Copepods play a central role in marine food webs as grazers of plankton and as key prey for many predators. Therefore, quantifying their specific trophic interactions is critical for understanding the role of copepods in ocean processes. However, because of methodological constraints, it remains difficult to investigate in situ copepod feeding without reliance on laborious intrusive and potentially biased incubation approaches. Recent advances in PCR-based methodologies have demonstrated the feasibility of directly identifying copepod diets based on prey DNA sequences. Yet, obtaining quantitative information from these approaches remains challenging. This study presents results of systematic efforts to develop a quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay targeted to 18S rRNA gene fragments to estimate copepod gut content of specific species of prey algae. These results were first compared to gut content estimates based on fluorescence in the copepod Calanus finmarchicus fed monocultures of two different microalgae species in controlled laboratory studies. In subsequent field studies, we compared feeding rates obtained by microscopy and qPCR for Temora longicornis and Acartia clausi feeding on the haptophyte Phaeocystis globosa in natural blooms. These investigations demonstrate a semi-quantitative relationship between gut content estimates derived from qPCR, gut pigment, and direct microscopy. However, absolute estimates of gut content based on qPCR methodology were consistently lower than expected. This did not appear to be explained by the extraction methods used, or interference by non-target (predator) DNA in the PCR reactions, instead suggesting digestion of prey-specific nucleic acids. Furthermore, the 18S rDNA target gene copy number of the phytoplankton varied with growth phase. Nonetheless, when prey target gene copy number in the ambient water is quantified, the qPCR-approach can be compared to other methods, and then used to semi-quantitatively estimate relative copepod grazing on specific prey in situ without involving further incubations. A distinct advantage of a DNA-based molecular approach compared to gut fluorescence and direct microscopic observation, is the ability to detect non-pigmented and macerated prey. Future studies should aim to correct for breakdown in prey DNA and perform extensive calibrations to other methods in order to achieve a quantitative measure of feeding rates in situ.     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA SCREENING OF A LARGE WATER POLICY SUBSET SELECTION PROBLEM1

ABSTRACT: A new screening approach is applied to a large‐scale multiple criteria water management problem to remove actions that cannot possibly be in the best subset. An inherent advantage of the approach is its ability to identify inferior actions by examining them individually, rather than within subsets. In a case study involving the selection of actions to address high water levels in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence Basin, two statistical indicators, the mode and the mean, are used to aggregate the opinions of experts and representatives of interest groups on the impacts of actions according to various criteria. Application of the screening approach shows that some of the proposed actions can be removed as they can never be in the optimal subset, thereby reducing the size of the problem.     

Re-creating missing population baselines for Pacific reef sharks

Sharks and other large predators are scarce on most coral reefs, but studies of their historical ecology provide qualitative evidence that predators were once numerous in these ecosystems. Quantifying density of sharks in the absence of humans (baseline) is, however, hindered by a paucity of pertinent time-series data. Recently researchers have used underwater visual surveys, primarily of limited spatial extent or nonstandard design, to infer negative associations between reef shark abundance and human populations. We analyzed data from 1607 towed-diver surveys (>1 ha transects surveyed by observers towed behind a boat) conducted at 46 reefs in the central-western Pacific Ocean, reefs that included some of the world's most pristine coral reefs. Estimates of shark density from towed-diver surveys were substantially lower (<10%) than published estimates from surveys along small transects (<0.02 ha), which is not consistent with inverted biomass pyramids (predator biomass greater than prey biomass) reported by other researchers for pristine reefs. We examined the relation between the density of reef sharks observed in towed-diver surveys and human population in models that accounted for the influence of oceanic primary productivity, sea surface temperature, reef area, and reef physical complexity. We used these models to estimate the density of sharks in the absence of humans. Densities of gray reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos), whitetip reef sharks (Triaenodon obesus), and the group "all reef sharks" increased substantially as human population decreased and as primary productivity and minimum sea surface temperature (or reef area, which was highly correlated with temperature) increased. Simulated baseline densities of reef sharks under the absence of humans were 1.1-2.4/ha for the main Hawaiian Islands, 1.2-2.4/ha for inhabited islands of American Samoa, and 0.9-2.1/ha for inhabited islands in the Mariana Archipelago, which suggests that density of reef sharks has declined to 3-10% of baseline levels in these areas.