Crime,weather, and climate change

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.     

使用安捷伦7000A三重串联四极杆GC/MS/MS系统测定大气颗粒物中的硝基多环芳烃

采用毛细管GC结合安捷伦7000A三重串联四极杆GC/MS(G7010AA)系统的多反应监测(MRM)模式分析了大气颗粒物中的硝基多环芳烃(nitro-PAHs).传统硝基多环芳烃的分析方法是在样品前处理之后,使用单四极杆GC/MS的选择离子监测SIM模式或者多维GC/MS,但基于MS/MS检测模式超强的选择性,可直接分析大气颗粒物的粗提物.实际样品中的硝基多环芳烃可以检测到pg·μL-1的级别,相对应于大气样品中pg·m-3级的含量.     

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species’ populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.     

Ontogenetic differences in chemical alarm cue production determine antipredator responses and learned predator recognition

How individuals assess, respond and subsequently learn from alarm cues is crucial to their survival and future fitness. Yet this information is not constant through time; many individuals are exposed to different predators throughout their life as they outgrow some predators or move to habitats containing different predators. To maximise overall fitness, individuals should discriminate between different cues and respond and learn from only those that are relevant to their current ontogenetic stage. We tested whether juvenile spiny chromis, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, could distinguish between chemical alarm cues from conspecific donors of different ontogenetic stages and whether the cue ontogenetic stage of the cue donor affected the efficacy of learning about predators. Juveniles displayed a significant antipredator response when conditioned with juvenile chemical alarm cues paired with predator odour but failed to respond when conditioned with predator odour paired with either adult alarm cues or with saltwater. Subsequently, individuals only recognised the predator odour alone as a threat when conditioned with juvenile alarm cues. This demonstrates that prey may be highly specific in how they use information from conspecific alarm cues, selectively responding to and learning from only those cues that are relevant to their developmental stage.     

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making-periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (> or = 5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.     

Mercury bioaccumulation in estuarine food webs

We tested for unintended mercury contamination problems associated with estuarine floodplain restoration projects of the Louisiana coastal zone, USA. Barataria Bay and Breton Sound are two neighboring deltaic estuaries that were isolated by levees from the Mississippi River about 100 years ago. These estuaries recently have been reconnected to the nutrient-rich Mississippi River, starting major river diversion (input) flows in 1991 for Breton Sound and in 2004 for Barataria Bay. We collected > 2100 fish over five years from 20 stations in these estuaries to test two hypotheses about Hg bioaccumulation: (H1) Background Hg bioaccumulation in fish would be highest in low-salinity upper reaches of estuaries, and (H2) recent river inputs to these upper estuarine areas would increase Hg bioaccumulation in fish food webs. For H1, we surveyed fish Hg concentrations at several stations along a salinity gradient in Barataria Bay in 2003-2004, a time when this estuary lacked strong river inputs. Results showed that average Hg concentrations in fish communities were lowest (150 ng/g dry mass) in higher salinity areas and -2.4x higher (350 ng/g) in low-salinity oligohaline and freshwater upper reaches of the estuary. For H2, we tested for enhanced Hg bioaccumulation following diversion onset in both estuaries. Fish communities from Breton Sound that had long-term (> 10 years) diversion inputs had -1.7x higher average Hg contents of 610 ng/g Hg vs. 350 ng/g background values. Shorter-term diversion inputs over 2-3 years in upper Barataria Bay did not result in strong Hg enrichments or stable C isotope increases seen in Breton Sound, even though N and S stable-isotope values indicated strong river inputs in both estuaries. It may be that epiphyte communities on abundant submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) are important hotspots for Hg cycling in these estuaries, and observed lesser development of these epiphyte communities in upper Barataria Bay during the first years of diversion inputs may account for the lessened Hg bioaccumulation in fish. A management consideration from this study is that river restoration projects may unintentionally fertilize SAV and epiphyte-based food webs, leading to higher Hg bioaccumulation in river-impacted floodplains and their food webs.     

Comparing model averaging with other model selection strategies for benchmark dose estimation

Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accommodating model uncertainty when estimating risk. Although the use of MA is inherently appealing, little is known about its performance using general modeling conditions. We investigate the use of MA for estimating excess risk using a Monte Carlo simulation. Dichotomous response data are simulated under various assumed underlying dose–response curves, and nine dose–response models (from the USEPA Benchmark dose model suite) are fit to obtain both model specific and MA risk estimates. The benchmark dose estimates (BMDs) from the MA method, as well as estimates from other commonly selected models, e.g., best fitting model or the model resulting in the smallest BMD, are compared to the true benchmark dose value to better understand both bias and coverage behavior in the estimation procedure. The MA method has a small bias when estimating the BMD that is similar to the bias of BMD estimates derived from the assumed model. Further, when a broader range of models are included in the family of models considered in the MA process, the lower bound estimate provided coverage close to the nominal level, which is superior to the other strategies considered. This approach provides an alternative method for risk managers to estimate risk while incorporating model uncertainty.