A General Stochastic Model for the Prediction of Biodiversity Losses Based on Habitat Conversion

We present a model of species extinction rates that depends on the distribution of species and rates of habitat conversion. This model allows prediction of numbers of species lost as well as current extinction rates. We apply the model to plant species in the Neotropics. We examined distribution data for 51 angiosperm taxa, comprising 4258 species from Flora Neotropica monographs. Of these, 25.7% had been recorded as occurring in a single locality, with 12.8% and 9.5% being recorded from two or three localities respectively. Assuming that 18.7% of Neotropical forested area has been cleared since 1950, when 60,000 plant species existed, the model predicts that 3020 species will have been lost by 1992. At current deforestation rates, the entire Neotropics loses between 71 and 95 plant species per year. We also apply the model to individual Neotropical countries and find annual rates of within-country extinctions ranging from 0 per year in Belize to 63 per year in Ecuador. We suggest a means by which the model may be tested in the field.     

Avian flocking reduces starvation risk: an experimental demonstration

Summary Theory suggests that variance in individual food intake is lower during group foraging. Consequently, group foraging can at times reduce starvation risk. In aviary experiments using green-finches we demonstrate how intake variability decreases during group foraging because individuals use feeding by flock mates as a cue to locate food (local enhancement). Flocking preferences of greenfinches responded to variance in energy gain as predicted by theoretical models for foragers attempting to reduce starvation risk. While energy budget was positive the greenfinches were risk averse and foraged socially. Their preference shifted towards more risk prone solitary foraging when kept on a negative energy budget. We conclude that time or energy net gains are not necessary for foraging groups to form, but reductions in starvation risk may be sufficient.     

Consequences for Protaphorura armata (Collembola: Onychiuridae) following exposure to genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize and non-Bt maize

Studies on the effect of genetically modified Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops on true soil dwelling non-target arthropods are scarce. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of a 4-week exposure to two Bt maize varieties (Cry1Ab) Cascade and MEB307 on the collembolan Protaphorura armata. For comparison three non-Bt maize varieties, Rivaldo (isogenic to Cascade), Monumental (isogenic to MEB307) and DK242, and two control diets based on baker's yeast (uncontaminated and contaminated with Bt toxin Cry1Ab) were also tested. Due to a lower C:N ratio, individuals reared on yeast performed significantly better in all of the measured endpoints than those reared on maize. P. armata performed equally well when reared on two Bt and three non-Bt maize varieties. Although there were no negative effects of Bt maize in this experiment, we recommend future studies on Bt crops to focus on species interactions in long-term, multi-species experiments.     

日益提高的中小企业环境性能与环保产品宣言指标

在关于改善环境的科学与政策讨论中,最经常提到的话题之一就是如何使小型和中等规模的企业参与进来.     

Risk analysis and risk management approaches applied to the petroleum industry and their applicability to IO concepts

Due to changes introduced by Integrated Operations (IO) it is possible that traditional risk analysis and risk management approaches in the oil and gas industry are also challenged. In this paper we study the impact on these approaches by asking two questions: (1) what methods for risk analysis are used in the Norwegian oil and gas industry? (2) What are the risk analysis and risk management challenges in an IO context from the perspective of actors in the Norwegian oil and gas industry? An explorative approach was chosen and the empirical findings are based on three separate studies: (1) a survey of risk analysis and risk management in different business sectors in the oil and gas industry; (2) qualitative interviews about the generation of knowledge for decisions that involve risk in an operating company; and (3) qualitative interviews of people working with risk analyses in different companies exploring their use of risk analysis methods. The four main results are: due to IO it is necessary to look for other inputs to risk analyses; establish suitable assessment approaches to human and organizational issues; develop resilience-based approaches for operational risk assessment; and, utilize IO to improve the risk management process.     

The influence of macrofauna on estuarine benthic community metabolism: a microcosm study

Effects of benthic macrofauna (Corophium volutator, Hydrobia sp., Nereis virens) on benthic community metabolism were studied over a 65-d period in microcosms kept in either light/dark cycle (L/D-system) or in continuous darkness (D-system). Sediment and animals were collected in January 1986 in the shallow mesohaline estuary, Norsminde Fjord, Denmark. The primary production in the L/D-system after 10 d acted as a stabilizing agent on the O₂ and CO₂ flux rates, whereas the D-system showed decreasing O₂ and CO₂ flux throughout the period. Mean O₂ uptake over the experimental period ranged from 0.38 to 1.24 mmol m^–2 h^–1 and CO₂ release varied from 0.80 to 1.63 mmol m^–2 h^–1 in both systems. The presence of macrofauna stimulated community respiration rates measured in darknes, 1.4 to 3.0 and 0.9 to 2.0 times for O₂ and CO₂, respectively. In contrast, macrofauna lowered primary production. Gross primary production varied from 1.06 to 2.26 mmol O₂ m^–2 h^–1 and from 1.26 to 2.62 mmol CO₂ m^–2 h^–1. The community respiratory quotient (CRQ, CO₂/O₂) was generally higher in the begining of the experiment (0–20 d, mean 1.89) than in the period from Days 20 to 65 (mean 1.38). The L/D-system exhibited lower CRQ (ca. 1) than the D-system. The community photosynthetic quotient varied for both net and gross primary production from 0.64 to 1.03, mean 0.81. The heterotrophic D-system revealed a sharp decrease in the sediment content of chlorophyll a as compared to the initial content. In the autotrophic L/D-system, a significant increase in chlorophyll a concentration was observed in cores lacking animals and cores with C. volutator (The latter species died during the experiment). Due to grazing and other macrofauna activities other cores of the L/D-system exhibited no significant change in chlorophyll a concentration. Community primary production was linearly correlated to the chlorophyll a content in the 0 to 0.5 cm layer. Fluxes of DIN (NH₄ ⁺+NO₂ ^–+NO₃ ^–) did not reveal significant temporal changes during the experiment. Highest rates were found for the cores containing animals, mainly because of an increased NH₄ ⁺ flux. The release of DIN decreased significantly due to uptake by benthic microalgae in the L/D-system. No effects of the added macrofauna were found on particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate organic nitrogen (PON), total carbon dioxide (TCO₂) and NH₄ ⁺ in the sediment. The ratio between POC and PON was nearly constant (9.69) in all sediment dephts. The relationship between TCO₂ and NH₄ ⁺ was more complex, with ratios below 2 cm depth similar to those for POC/PON, but with low ratios (3.46) at the sediment surface.     

The population structure of the harbour porpoise,Phocoena phocoena,in Danish waters and part of the North Atlantic

A study of the homogeneity between putative stocks of Phocoena phocoena in the North Sea and inner Danish waters was performed using isozyme electrophoresis. Two polymorphic systems, mannose phosphate isomerase (MPI) and phosphoglucomutase (PGM) were used in the analysis. A two-locus homogeneity test showed an effect of season and locality on the genotypic distribution. This led to a division of the total sample into season and into the two localities, the inner Danish waters (IDW) and the North Sea. The samples were then compared to the Hardy-Weinberg expectations where a deficit in heterozygotes was observed in the North Sea sample in both systems and at the Pgm locus in the total sample, indicating a mixing of sub-populations. A hierarchical contingency table analysis, also based on the genotypic distribution, showed a combined effect of season and locality and only an insignificant effect of sampling period, thus supporting the division into season and locatily. The seasonal effect is further supported by earlier observations of a seasonal migration of harbour porpoises out of the Baltic in winter. A significant difference was observed between the two supposed sub-populations, IDW-summer and North Sea-summer samples, based on the genotypic distribution. This could also be a reflection of the sample sizes. On the basis of samples obtained from Canada, West Greenland and Holland a preliminary study of the population structure on a larger scale, comprising the North East and North West Atlantic, was performed. The results so far accord well with the hitherto accepted sub-populations of P. phocoena in the North Atlantic.     

Tail beat frequency as a predictor of swimming speed and oxygen consumption of saithe (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pollachius virens</Emphasis>) and whiting (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Merlangius merlangus</Emphasis>) during forced swimming

Oxygen consumption and tail beat frequency were measured on saithe (Pollachius virens) and whiting (Merlangius merlangus) during steady swimming. Oxygen consumption increased exponentially with swimming speed, and the relationship was described by a power function. The extrapolated standard metabolic rates (SMR) were similar for saithe and whiting, whereas the active metabolic rate (AMR) was twice as high for saithe. The higher AMR resulted in a higher scope for activity in accordance with the higher critical swimming speed (U _crit) achieved by saithe. The optimum swimming speed (U _opt) was 1.4 BL s⁻¹ for saithe and 1.0 BL s⁻¹ for whiting with a corresponding cost of transport (COT) of 0.14 and 0.15 J N⁻¹ m⁻¹. Tail beat frequency correlated strongly with swimming speed as well as with oxygen consumption. In contrast to swimming speed and oxygen consumption, measurement of tail beat frequency on individual free-ranging fish is relatively uncomplicated. Tail beat frequency may therefore serve as a predictor of swimming speed and oxygen consumption of saithe and whiting in the field.