A new captorhinid reptile, Gansurhinus qingtoushanensis, gen. et sp. nov., from the Permian of China

Captorhinids, a clade of Paleozoic reptiles, are represented by a rich fossil record that extends from the Late Carboniferous into the Late Permian. Representatives of this clade dispersed from the equatorial regions of Laurasia into the temperate regions of Pangea during the Middle and Late Permian. This rich fossil record shows that there was an evolutionary trend from faunivorous to omnivorous and herbivorous feeding habits within this clade. The discovery of well-preserved captorhinid materials in the Middle Permian of China allows us to determine that the new taxon, Gansurhinus qingtoushanensis, gen. et sp. nov, is a member of Moradisaurinae, a clade of captorhinids with multiple tooth rows arranged in parallel. The presence of this moradisaurine in the Middle Permian of south central Asia leads us to suggest that paleogeographic changes during the Permian, with part of what is today China becoming a large peninsula of Pangea, allowed these early reptiles as well as other terrestrial vertebrates to extend their geographic ranges to this region of the Late Paleozoic supercontinent.     

Prenatal DNA Sequencing: Clinical,Counseling, and Diagnostic Laboratory Considerations

Clinical diagnostic laboratories are producing next-generation sequencing-based test results that are becoming increasingly incorporated into patient care. Whole genome and exome sequencing on fetal material derived from amniocytes, chorionic villi, or products of conception is starting to be offered clinically in specialized centers, but it has not yet become routine practice. The technical, interpretation, and ethical challenges are greatest in the area of prenatal medicine because the fetus has a limited health history, and the physical examination is only indirectly available via prenatal sonography. Here, we provide an overview of these challenges and highlight the clinical utility, reporting, and counseling issues associated with prenatal DNA sequencing. Future considerations are also discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cultural Influence on Crowding Norms in Outdoor Recreation: A Comparative Analysis of Visitors to National Parks in Turkey and the United States

Formulation of standards of quality in parks and outdoor recreation can be guided by normative theory and related empirical methods. We apply this approach to measure the acceptability of a range of use levels in national parks in Turkey and the United States. Using statistical methods for comparing norm curves across contexts, we find significant differences among Americans, British, and Turkish respondents. In particular, American and British respondents were substantially less tolerant of seeing other visitors and demonstrated higher norm intensity than Turkish respondents. We discuss the role of culture in explaining these findings, paying particular attention to Turkey as a traditional “contact culture” and the conventional emphasis on solitude and escape in American environmental history and policy. We conclude with a number of recommendations to stimulate more research on the relationship between culture and outdoor recreation.     

Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

Effects of sampling error and temporal correlations in population growth on process variance estimators

Estimates of a population’s growth rate and process variance from time-series data are often used to calculate risk metrics such as the probability of quasi-extinction, but temporal correlations in the data from sampling error, intrinsic population factors, or environmental conditions can bias process variance estimators and detrimentally affect risk predictions. It has been claimed (McNamara and Harding, Ecol Lett 7:16–20, 2004) that estimates of the long-term variance that incorporate observed temporal correlations in population growth are unaffected by sampling error; however, no estimation procedures were proposed for time-series data. We develop a suite of such long-term variance estimators, and use simulated data with temporally autocorrelated population growth and sampling error to evaluate their performance. In some cases, we get nearly unbiased long-term variance estimates despite ignoring sampling error, but the utility of these estimators is questionable because of large estimation uncertainty and difficulties in estimating correlation structure in practice. Process variance estimators that ignored temporal correlations generally gave more precise estimates of the variability in population growth and of the probability of quasi-extinction. We also found that the estimation of probability of quasi-extinction was greatly improved when quasi-extinction thresholds were set relatively close to population levels. Because of precision concerns, we recommend using simple models for risk estimates despite potential biases, and limiting inference to quantifying relative risk; e.g., changes in risk over time for a single population or comparative risk among populations.     

Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II

Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and incorporate realistic fire characteristics (shapes, distributions, and effects) that can vary within and between fire events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extensions using two case study examples with very different ecosystem characteristics: a boreal forest system from central Labrador, Canada, and a mixed conifer system from the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). In Labrador, comparison between the more complex dynamic fire extension and a classic fire simulator based on a simple fire size distribution showed little difference in terms of mean fire rotation and potential severity, but cumulative burn patterns created by the dynamic fire extension were more heterogeneous due to feedback between fuel types and fire behavior. Simulations in the Sierra Nevada indicated that burn patterns were responsive to topographic features, fuel types, and an extreme weather scenario, although the magnitude of responses depended on elevation. In both study areas, simulated fire size and resulting fire rotation intervals were moderately sensitive to parameters controlling the curvilinear response between fire spread and weather, as well as to the assumptions underlying the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. Potential fire severity was more variable within the Sierra Nevada landscape and also was more sensitive to the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. The fire modeling approach described here should be applicable to questions related to climate change and disturbance interactions, particularly within locations characterized by steep topography, where temporally or spatially dynamic vegetation significantly influences spread rates, where fire severity is variable, and where multiple disturbance types of varying severities are common.     

Perceptions of observed and model values of male and female managers

To provide evidence of the relationship between expectations for the values that should be exhibited for effective performance by female and male managers and their actual values, data were used that had been collected as part of a leadership program conducted for managers of business organizations in the United States. From a pool of approximately 700 managers, samples were drawn of 130 male and 130 female managers. As part of leadership program, the managers had completed 26-item SYMLOG value questionnaires, rating themselves and the values they judged to be effective for a manager. Prior to their participation in the program, sets of ratings were made by the coworkers of each manager, rating the actual values of the manager and the coworkers' ideal profile for the manager. The questionnaire covers three dimensions of values: dominant versus submissive, friendly versus unfriendly, and accepting the task-orientation of established authority versus opposing it. Comparisons were made of self and coworkers' ratings on the observed (self/actual) and model (effective/ideal) values of female and male managers with ‘matched’ samples that include only female and male managers with similar ratings of actual values, as judged by their coworkers, by removing the ratings of ‘outliers’. The only significant difference in gender ratings that remains is that female managers rate themselves as more positive. There are more differences between observed and model ratings. Managers and their coworkers believe that model managers should be more dominant and friendly than they are rated to be. However the managers also believe that they should be more task-oriented while their coworkers believe that they should be less task-oriented. The majority of the female managers dropped from the matched sample because no matching male could be found were more dominant and positive and less task-oriented, thus closer to the stereotype role for females. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.