The stochastic demography of two coexisting male morphs

Abstract. If genetically distinct morphs coexist under a range of natural conditions, they should have equal long-run fitnesses across a wide range of different stochastic environments. In other words, the sequence and frequency of good and bad environments should not substantially impact long-run growth rates. When different morphs have contrasting life histories that vary with environmental conditions, however, it seems improbable that growth rates can be equivalent across a range of stochastic environments without invoking a strong stabilizing mechanism to explain their persistence. As yet, there has been no research characterizing the long-run stochastic growth rate (lambdaS) of different morphs across a wide range of stochastic environments. Assuming density independence, we show that the two genetic male morphs in the bulb mite (Rhizoglyphus robini-fighters, which are able to kill other mites, and benign scramblers-have similar lambdas in different Markovian environments (different simulated random sequences of good and bad habitats). Elasticity analyses revealed that Xs was most sensitive to perturbation of adult survival rate. A slight (biologically and statistically realistic) increase in scrambler adult survival equalized scrambler and fighter X,. The fitness equivalence of the two morphs suggests that stabilizing mechanisms, such as density or frequency dependence, required to maintain their coexistence, are weak. We advocate that stochastic demography can offer a powerful approach to identify and understand the circumstances under which genetic polymorphisms can be maintained in stochastic environments.     

Surfactant-induced changes in gravity fingering of water through a light oil

Gravity-driven preferential flow (fingering) can greatly affect how one fluid displaces another in the subsurface. We have studied the internal properties of these preferential flow paths for water, with and without surfactants, infiltrating into oil saturated porous media using synchrotron X-rays, and miniature tensiometers to characterize fluid content and pressure relationships. We also used a light transmission technique to visualize overall flow pattern. Capillary pressure and water content decrease behind the front, similar to fingers in air-dry sand, with quantitative differences for five different surfactants with surface tensions ranging from 4–21 g/s². Using unstable flow theory, the finger widths, capillary pressure drops within the fingers, finger tip lengths, and finger splitting dynamics were scaled successfully with interfacial tension, fluid density, and the contact angle using the fingers in air–water systems as the reference.     

Malthusian overfishing and efforts to overcome it on Kenyan coral reefs

This study examined trends along a gradient of fishing intensity in an artisanal coral reef fishery over a 10-year period along 75 km of Kenya's most populated coastline. As predicted by Malthusian scenarios, catch per unit effort (CPUE), mean trophic level, the functional diversity of fished taxa, and the diversity of gear declined, while total annual catch and catch variability increased along the fishing pressure gradient. The fishery was able to sustain high (approximately 16 Mg x km(-2) x yr(-1)) but variable yields at high fishing pressure due to the dominance of a few productive herbivorous fish species in the catch. The effect of two separate management strategies to overcome this Malthusian pattern was investigated: fisheries area closure and elimination of the dominant and most "competitive" gear. We found that sites within 5 km of the enforced closure showed significantly lower total catch and CPUE, but increased yield stability and trophic level of catch than predicted by regression models normalized for fishing effort. Sites that had excluded illegal beach seine use through active gear management exhibited increased total catch and CPUE. There was a strong interaction between closure and gear management, which indicates that, for closures to be effective at increasing catch, there must be simultaneous efforts at gear management around the periphery of the closures. We propose that Malthusian effects are responsible for the variation in gear and catch and that active management through reduced effort and reductions in the most competitive gear have the greatest potential to increase the functional and trophic diversity and per-person productivity.     

Ergonomics and safety of manual bag sealing.

A variety of seals is used to close bags. Each seal has advantages and disadvantages. For shop assistants sealing bags could be a repetitive physically demanding action. Opening and closing the bags again can cause some discomfort or annoyance for consumers. Besides, it is an activity which can endanger safety, i.e., knives being used in opening, children swallowing the systems of sealing. To prevent these problems a new sealing system was developed. In this paper the opinion of shop assistants, consumers and experts on several bag sealing systems was studied. It appeared that for sealing plastic bags, adhesive tape with paper is the best out of 4 systems, closely followed by adhesive tape. It is discussed that for the elderly, there is still room for improvement in opening bag seals.     

A participatory approach to the establishment of a baseline scenario for a reforestation Clean Development Mechanism project

This paper is part of a two-year study to investigate the feasibility of initiating a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project in an indigenous community of Eastern Panamá, Ipetí-Emberá. We use participatory mapping and matrices as well as household surveys to develop a land-use/land-cover baseline scenario and examine the role of local participation in assessing land-use change. In Ipetí, land-use change has not occurred in a linear way over the last decades, and our data unveils socio-economic factors as potential key drivers of change. The concordance that we observed between geographic information and individual and collective perceptions of land-use change substantiates the possibility of using local knowledge in the establishment of baseline data for CDM projects. Our calculations suggest that the total carbon (C) stocks in the Tierra Colectiva (TC) of Ipetí-Emberá in 2004 represents a 47% reduction from the estimated C stock at the onset of settlement in the early 1970’s. Results from the participatory assessments predict that, in 2024 and in absence of a CDM project, the C stocks will decline from 301,859 t C in 2004 to 155,730 t C, which constitutes a reduction of 52%. The scenario with CDM estimates C stocks of 305,853 t C for 2024, a value slightly superior to the 2004 value. In the TC there is ground to believe that cattle ranching is likely to become an ever more important activity as the population is young and growing and cannot easily move elsewhere. Forests tend to be cleared for cultivation while pastures are established on short fallows. Our baseline scenario underlines the potential for a CDM project to make a significant difference in the future C stocks of this landscape.     

Body mass estimations for <Emphasis Type="Italic">Plateosaurus engelhardti</Emphasis> using laser scanning and 3D reconstruction methods

Both body mass and surface area are factors determining the essence of any living organism. This should also hold true for an extinct organism such as a dinosaur. The present report discusses the use of a new 3D laser scanner method to establish body masses and surface areas of an Asian elephant (Zoological Museum of Copenhagen, Denmark) and of Plateosaurus engelhardti, a prosauropod from the Upper Triassic, exhibited at the Paleontological Museum in Tübingen (Germany). This method was used to study the effect that slight changes in body shape had on body mass for P. engelhardti. It was established that body volumes varied between 0.79 m³ (slim version) and 1.14 m³ (robust version), resulting in a presumable body mass of 630 and 912 kg, respectively. The total body surface areas ranged between 8.8 and 10.2 m², of which, in both reconstructions of P. engelhardti, ∼33% account for the thorax area alone. The main difference between the two models is in the tail and hind limb reconstruction. The tail of the slim version has a surface area of 1.98 m², whereas that of the robust version has a surface area of 2.73 m². The body volumes calculated for the slim version were as follows: head 0.006 m³, neck 0.016 m³, fore limbs 0.020 m³, hind limbs 0.08 m³, thoracic cavity 0.533 m³, and tail 0.136 m³. For the robust model, the following volumes were established: 0.01 m³ head, neck 0.026 m³, fore limbs 0.025 m³, hind limbs 0.18 m³, thoracic cavity 0.616 m³, and finally, tail 0.28 m³. Based on these body volumes, scaling equations were used to assess the size that the organs of this extinct dinosaur have.     

Modeling traffic air pollution in street canyons in New York City for intra-urban exposure assessment in the US Multi-Ethnic Study of atherosclerosis and air pollution

We evaluated the Danish AirGIS air quality and exposure model system using air quality measurement data from New York City in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Measurements were used from three US EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring stations and a comprehensive MESA Air measurement campaign including about 150 different locations and about 650 samples of about 2 week measurements of NO_x, NO₂ and PM_2.5. AirGIS is a deterministic exposure model system based on the dispersion models Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) and the Urban Background Model (UBM). The UBM model reproduced the annual levels within 1–26% depending on station and pollutant at the three urban background EPA monitor stations, and generally reproduced well the seasonal and diurnal variation. The full model with OSPM and UBM reproduced the MESA Air measurements with a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.51 for NO_x, r² = 0.28 for NO₂ and r² = 0.73 for PM_2.5.     

Adoption Potential of Conservation Agriculture Practices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Results from Five Case Studies

Despite the reported benefits of conservation agriculture (CA), its wider up-scaling in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has remained fairly limited. This paper shows how a newly developed qualitative expert assessment approach for CA adoption (QAToCA) was applied to determine its adoption potential in SSA. CA adoption potential is not a predictor of observed adoption rates. Instead, our aim was to systematically check relevant factors that may be influencing its adoption. QAToCA delivers an assessment of how suitable conditions “and thus the likelihood for CA adoption” are. Results show that the high CA adoption potentials exhibited by the Malawi and Zambia case relate mostly to positive institutional factors. On the other hand, the low adoption potential of the Zimbabwe case, in spite of observed higher estimates, is attributed mainly to unstable and less secured market conditions for CA. In the case of Southern Burkina Faso, the potential for CA adoption is determined to be high, and this assessment deviates from lower observed figures. This is attributed mainly to strong competition of CA and livestock for residues in this region. Lastly, the high adoption potential found in Northern Burkina Faso is explained mainly by the fact that farmers here have no alternative other than to adopt the locally adapted CA system—Zaï farming. Results of this assessment should help promoters of CA in the given regions to reflect on their activities and to eventually adjust or redesign them based on a more explicit understanding of where problems and opportunities are found.     

Monitoring fluvial water chemistry for trend detection: hydrological variability masks trends in datasets covering fewer than 12 years

This paper sub-samples four 35 year water quality time series to consider the potential influence of short-term hydrological variability on process inference derived from short-term monitoring data. The data comprise two time series for nitrate (NO(3)-N) and two for DOC (using water colour as a surrogate). The four catchments were selected not only because of their long records, but also because the four catchments are very different: upland and lowland, agricultural and non-agricultural. Multiple linear regression is used to identify the trend and effects of rainfall and hydrological 'memory effects' over the full 35 years, and then a moving-window technique is used to subsample the series, using window widths of between 6 and 20 years. The results suggest that analyses of periods between six and eleven years are more influenced by local hydrological variability and therefore provide misleading results about long-term trends, whereas periods of longer than twelve years tend to be more representative of underlying system behaviour. This is significant: if such methods for analysing monitoring data were used to validate changes in catchment management, a monitoring period of less than 12 years might be insufficient to demonstrate change in the underlying system.     

The organic composition of diesel particulate matter, diesel fuel and engine oil of a non-road diesel generator

Diesel-powered equipment is known to emit significant quantities of fine particulate matter to the atmosphere. Numerous organic compounds can be adsorbed onto the surfaces of these inhalable particles, among which polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are considered potential occupational carcinogens. Guidelines have been established by various agencies regarding diesel emissions and various control technologies are under development. The purpose of this study is to identify, quantify and compare the organic compounds in diesel particulate matter (DPM) with the diesel fuel and engine oil used in a non-road diesel generator. Approximately 90 organic compounds were quantified (with molecular weight ranging from 120 to 350), which include alkanes, PAHs, alkylated PAHs, alkylbenzenes and alkanoic acids. The low sulfur diesel fuel contains 61% alkanes and 7.1% of PAHs. The identifiable portion of the engine oil contains mainly the alkanoic and benzoic acids. The composition of DPM suggests that they may be originated from unburned diesel fuel, engine oil evaporation and combustion generated products. Compared with diesel fuel, DPM contains fewer fractions of alkanes and more PAH compounds, with the shift toward higher molecular weight ones. The enrichment of compounds with higher molecular weight in DPM may be combustion related (pyrogenic).