支持西印度洋地区海洋和海岸带资源可持续管理的海洋研究

西印度洋(WIO)地区以其迷人的海岸带、丰富的海洋生物多样性以及富饶的海洋和海岸带资源而著称.但是地处WIO地区的许多国家像肯尼亚、莫桑比克、索马里、南非、坦桑尼亚、科摩罗、马达加斯加、毛里求斯、留尼旺、塞舌尔等却极度贫困,特别是近二三十年以来,该地区的环境退化现象以及自然资源和生物多样性的下降越来越明显.     

Buchbesprechungen

The Science of Nature -     

Ternäre Verbindungen von Cadmiumhalogeniden mit Arsen und Antimon

The Science of Nature -     

通过调节汽油中铅的使用来控制人体血铅浓度

在20世纪60～70年代,铅排放一直保持着最大速率,之后,由于工业国家采取了日益严格的政策来限制铅作为防爆剂在汽油中使用,使得含铅汽油已经变得很少见了.我们利用欧洲铅排放量(PbE)和空气浓度(PbC)的重建及对约1980年以来德国人体血铅浓度(PbB)的重复测定,建立了一个可由铅排放量(PbE)估计人体血铅浓度(PbB)的经验模型.采用这一模型有两种用途[1]估计六七十年代德国的PbB水平,当时铅排放量最大而人体血铅水平监测尚未开始.结果显示,血铅峰值已经达到了卫生官员认为对胎儿和儿童有潜在危害的平均水平.[2]估计PbB水平将如何因有关汽油中铅使用的法规的实施而变化.模型估计,如果没有或延迟法规,PbB水平将远远超过临界水平.因此,自20世纪70年代以来,德国制定的法规已经明显降低了铅对健康的危害.     

Reducing car-based journeys to work: What potential is there and whose responsibility is it?

To date the transport solutions seeking to reduce traffic impacts have tended to focus on city/town centres. There has, however, been a substantial increase in traffic levels both in and to suburban areas and the location of large employment sites in such areas has had a significant impact. The typical policy response to traffic in these areas has been the introduction of traffic calming measures and residents' parking but such policies do not address the fundamental issue of travel generation and its consequences (including parking). Major employers should have an important role to play in the consideration of more sensible and sustainable uses of the car including the promotion of alternatives to car use. Using a case study at a large institution in Oxford this paper examines findings from a survey into staff travel behaviour in order to identify how staff currently behave. It explores the potential for transport and non-transport solutions to reduce car-based journeys to work and concludes that there is real potential to encourage a reduction in car-based travel. The paper seeks to widen the debate about who should take responsibility for achieving such a reduction. It argues that whilst travel awareness campaigns primarily push responsibility onto individuals an 'integrated package' is required with employers also assuming responsibility and thereby enabling individuals to adapt.     

Seeing the forest not for the carbon: why concentrating on land-use-induced carbon stock changes of soils in Brazil can be climate-unfriendly

Regional Environmental Change - Soil carbon stocks of 29 plots along a transect through tropical Brazil showed only minor soil carbon losses after land use shift, although replacement of...     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.