Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change

Environmental Management - Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological...     

Arsenic bioaccessibility in a gold mining area: a health risk assessment for children

High concentrations of total arsenic (As) have been measured in soils of gold mining areas of Brazil. However, bioaccessibility tests have not yet been conducted on those materials, which is essential for better health risk estimates. This study aimed at?evaluating As bioaccessibility in samples from a gold mining area located in Brazil and assessing children's exposure to As-contaminated materials. Samples were collected from different materials (a control and four As-contaminated soils/sediments) found in a gold mine area located in Paracatu (MG), Brazil. Total and bioaccessible As concentrations were determined for all samples. The control soil presented the lowest As concentrations, while all other materials contained high total As concentrations (up to 2,666?mg?kg(-1)) and low bioaccessible As percentage (<4.2%), indicating a low risk from exposure of resident children next to this area. The calculated dose of exposure indicated that, except for the pond tailings, in all other areas, the exposure route considering soil ingestion contributed at most to 9.7% of the maximum As allowed ingestion per day (0.3?μg?kg(-1) BW day(-1)).     

Photocatalysis for arsenic removal from water: considerations for solar photocatalytic reactors

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The following work provides a perspective on the potential application of solar heterogeneous photocatalysis, which is a nonselective advanced...     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Thermodynamic analysis of the energy recovery from the aerobic bioconversion of solid urban waste organic fraction

Waste management is of the utmost importance for many countries and especially for highly developed ones due to its implications on society. In particular, proper treatment before disposal of the solid urban waste organic fraction is one of the main issues that is addressed in waste management. In fact, the organic fraction is particularly reactive and if disposed in sanitary landfills without previous adequate treatment, a large amount of dangerous and polluting gaseous, liquid and solid substances can be produced. Some waste treatment processes can also present an opportunity to produce other by-products like energy, recycled materials and other products with both economic and environmental benefits. In this paper, the aerobic treatment of the organic fraction of solid urban waste, performed in a biocell plant with the possibility of recovering heat for civil or industrial needs, was examined from the thermodynamic point of view. A theoretical model was proposed both for the biological process of the organic fraction, as well as for the heat recovery system. The most significant results are represented and discussed.     

Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under “no adaptation” scenario is about 200 % by 2090 (compared with 2000–2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50 %. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10 % would result in about a 30 % decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis.     

A simple Lagrangian model to simulate temporal variability of algae in the Elbe River

We present a five-year (1997–2001) numerical simulation of daily mean chlorophyll a concentrations at station Geesthacht Weir on the lower Elbe River (Germany) using an extremely simple Lagrangian model driven by (a) water discharge, global radiation, water temperature, and (b) silica observations at station Schmilka in the upper reach of the Elbe River. Notwithstanding the lack of many mechanistic details, the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll a variability surprisingly well, including a number of sharp valleys and ascents/descents in the observed time series. The model's success is based on the assumption of three key effects: prevailing light conditions, sporadic limitation of algal growth due to lack of silica and algae loss rates that increase above an empirically specified temperature threshold of 20 °C. Trimmed-down model versions are studied to analyse the model's success in terms of these mechanisms.In each of the five years the model consistently fails, however, to properly simulate characteristic steep increases of chlorophyll a concentrations after pronounced spring minima. Curing this model deficiency by global model re-calibration was found to be impossible. However, suspension of silica consumption by algae for up to 10 days in spring is shown to serve as a successful placeholder for processes that are disregarded in the model but apparently play an important role in the distinctly marked period of model failure. For the remainder of the year the very simple model was found to be adequate.