一种新的基于图模型的间歇过程故障监测方法

目前多元统计方法被广泛用于间歇过程故障监测并已经取得了比较好的效果。但是,统计模型的可解释性能比较差,很难直接利用操作人员积累的安全经验。为应对这些不足,提出了一种基于图模型的间歇过程故障监测方法。利用提出的定性建模方法,过程机理及操作人员的安全经验能够方便地表达。利用在线的过程变量数据和正向推理算法推断生产应处于的状态,利用安全知识及时地发现生产异常。当推断的结论与在线测得的结果矛盾或过程变量超过设定的安全限时,给出解释性输出。通过一个间歇反应案例,验证了提出的方法在模型的可解释性和利用安全经验方面的优势。     

Preventing femoral fractures among elderly: The community safety approach

The current picture of fatal injuries in Sweden is dominated by falls, which account for about 40%. Furthermore, falls are by far the most dominating cause of hospital in-patient care (57%). The aetiologic mechanisms behind falls and fractures are complicated, with a multifactorial causal pattern.The Lidköping Accident Prevention Programme — one of the few comprehensive community intervention programs in the world — provides an opportunity to discuss links between a multifactorial intervention program and related injuries in the elderly. The incidence of femoral fractures in Lidköping shows a significantly declining trend for females (− 6.6% per year) and a − 5.4% decline for males during the study period of 1987–1992. The control area of Skaraborg County showed a minor decrease and Sweden as a whole showed an increasing trend during the same period.In spite of the methodological problems of attributing effects in quasi-experiments, there is some support for the claim that the declining trend in the trial area was largely the result of the intervention program. This conclusion is further strengthened by the recently published report from the USA showing that a multiple-risk-factor intervention strategy resulted in a significant reduction in the risk of falling among elderly persons in the community.     

The relative importance of subjective and structural factors for individual adaptation to climate change by forest owners in Sweden

A growing body of literature argues that subjective factors can more accurately explain individual adaptation to climate change than objective measurers of adaptive capacity. Recent studies have shown that personal belief in climate change and affect are much better in explaining climate awareness and action than income, education or gender. This study focuses on the process of individual adaptation to climate change. It assesses and compares the influence of cognitive, experiential and structural factors on individuals’ views and intentions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study comes from a survey with 836 forest owners in Sweden. Ordinal and binary logistic regression was used to test hypotheses about the different factors. Results show that cognitive factors—namely personal level of trust in climate science, belief in the salience of climate change and risk assessment—are the only statistically significant factors that can directly explain individuals’ intention to adapt to climate change and their sense of urgency. Findings also suggest that structural or socio-demographic factors do not have a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among Swedish forest owners. The study also offers valuable insights for communication interventions to promote adaptation. Findings strongly suggest that communication interventions should focus more strongly on building trust and addressing stakeholders’ individual needs and experiences.

     

Adapting forest health assessments to changing perspectives on threats—a case example from Sweden

A revised Swedish forest health assessment system is presented. The assessment system is composed of several interacting components which target information needs for strategic and operational decision making and accommodate a continuously expanding knowledge base. The main motivation for separating information for strategic and operational decision making is that major damage outbreaks are often scattered throughout the landscape. Generally, large-scale inventories (such as national forest inventories) cannot provide adequate information for mitigation measures. In addition to broad monitoring programs that provide time-series information on known damaging agents and their effects, there is also a need for local and regional inventories adapted to specific damage events. While information for decision making is the major focus of the health assessment system, the system also contributes to expanding the knowledge base of forest conditions. For example, the integrated monitoring programs provide a better understanding of ecological processes linked to forest health. The new health assessment system should be able to respond to the need for quick and reliable information and thus will be an important part of the future monitoring of Swedish forests.     

发光细菌毒性法在饮用水水质评估与预警中的应用

通过对温州地区水源地、自来水等水质指标的研究,评估发光细菌(费氏弧菌)生物预警毒性监测的有效性,并结合实际案例,探讨以发光细菌生物毒性指标评估、预警水质的可行性。在正常情况下,饮用水水源地水质在低发光抑制率区间(±18%),如果水质遭遇农药污染等非正常情况,发光抑制率明显升高。在自来水净水过程中的各个处理阶段,发光细菌的水质毒性检测表现出敏感性,可以用于水质安全在线实时监控。     

Identification and quantification of products formed via photolysis of decabromodiphenyl ether

Background, aim, and scope  Decabromodiphenyl ether (DecaBDE) is used as an additive flame retardant in polymers. It has become a ubiquitous environmental contaminant, particularly abundant in abiotic media, such as sediments, air, and dust, and also present in wildlife and in humans. The main DecaBDE constituent, perbrominated diphenyl ether (BDE-209), is susceptible to transformations as observed in experimental work. This work is aimed at identifying and assessing the relative amounts of products formed after UV irradiation of BDE-209. Materials and methods  BDE-209, dissolved in tetrahydrofuran (THF), methanol, or combinations of methanol/water, was exposed to UV light for 100 or 200 min. Samples were analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (electron ionization) for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), dibenzofurans (PBDFs), methoxylated PBDEs, and phenolic PBDE products. Results  The products formed were hexaBDEs to nonaBDEs, monoBDFs to pentaBDFs, and methoxylated tetraBDFs to pentaBDFs. The products found in the fraction containing halogenated phenols were assigned to be pentabromophenol, dihydroxytetrabromobenzene, dihydroxydibromodibenzofuran, dihydroxytribromodibenzofuran, and dihydroxytetrabromodibenzofuran. The PBDEs accounted for approximately 90% of the total amount of substances in each sample and the PBDFs for about 10%. Discussion  BDE-209 is a source of PBDEs primarily present in OctaBDEs but also to some extent in PentaBDEs, both being commercial products now banned within the EU and in several states within the USA. It is notable that OH-PBDFs have not been identified or indicated in any of the photolysis studies performed to date. Formation of OH-PBDFs, however, may occur as pure radical reactions in the atmosphere. Conclusions  Photolysis of decaBDE yields a wide span of products, from nonaBDEs to hydroxylated bromobenzenes. It is evident that irradiation of decaBDE in water and methanol yields OH-PBDFs and MeO-PBDFs, respectively. BDE-202 (2,2′,3,3′,5,5′,6,6′-octabromodiphenyl ether) is identified as a marker of BDE-209 photolysis. Recommendations and perspectives  BDE-209, the main constituent of DecaBDE, is primarily forming debrominated diphenyl ethers with higher persistence which are more bioaccumulative than the starting material when subjected to UV light. Hence, DecaBDE should be considered as a source of these PBDE congeners in the environment. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

三峡水库上空甲烷浓度时空变化及与水库甲烷通量的关系

2010年,对三峡水库水-气界面上空05m处和岸边甲烷的浓度进行全年的观测,并采用静态浮箱-气相色谱法测定水库水-气界面上的甲烷通量,研究了三峡水库上空的甲烷浓度的背景值及其与甲烷排放强度之间的关系。结果表明：三峡水库上空甲烷浓度的年平均值为2216±0224 mL/m3,岸边甲烷浓度的年平均值为2211±0206 mL/m3,两者差异不显著;除夏季时云阳上空的甲烷浓度较高外（2850 mL/m3）,其余地点上空的甲烷浓度都接近年平均值;三峡水库上空的甲烷浓度存在明显的空间差异,上游地区（云阳）上空的甲烷浓度（231±033 mL/m3）显著高于下游地区（秭归：214±013 mL/m3,巫山：220±018 mL/m3）,坝后河流（三斗坪：221±016 mL/m3）上空的甲烷浓度高于坝前秭归处,但差异不显著。这一格局与水库中甲烷通量的空间变异基本相同,即从上游到下游（云阳、巫山、秭归）江面上甲烷通量依次为0454,0260和0115 mg/（m2·h）,呈下降趋势,坝后三斗坪处的甲烷通量（0280 mg/（m2·h））显著高于坝前秭归处通量,这表明：水库的水-气界面上的甲烷排放强度是影响水库上空甲烷浓度变化的主要因素     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and their hydroxylated metabolites in placenta from Madrid mothers

Introduction  

Concentrations and congener profiles of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and their hydroxylated metabolites (OH-PCBs) in placenta samples from a Madrid population (Spain) are reported. Structure dependent retentions of OH-PCBs are known to occur in both humans and wildlife, making it of interest to assess placental transfer of both parent compounds and their metabolites to the developing foetus.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) in seven different marine bird species from Iceland

Data on distribution, concentration and trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) is scarce in biota from the sub-Arctic region of the Atlantic. The present study is an investigation on PBDE and HBCD concentrations in eggs from seven marine bird species from Iceland, i.e. common eider (Somateria mollissima), arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea), guillemot (Uria aalge), fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), lesser black-backed gull (Larus fuscus), great black-backed gull (Larus marinus) and great skua (Stercorarius skua). Concentrations of sum PBDEs ranged from 44 ng g⁻¹ fat in eider eggs to 2400 ng g⁻¹ fat in great skua eggs. The contribution of different PBDE congeners to the sum concentration differed between species. Concentration of HBCDs (sum of α−,β⁻ and γ−HBCD) ranged from 1.3 ng g⁻¹ fat in arctic tern eggs to 41 ng g⁻¹ fat in great black-backed gull. PCA on PBDE and HBCD shows different trends between the two BFR groups, further indicating different sources/usage. Investigations on any potential health or population effects of environmental pollutants on the great skua are advised since both the PBDE and HBCD concentrations are high.     

Oxidative transformation of polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners (PBDEs) and of hydroxylated PBDEs (OH-PBDEs)

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: The historical and widespread use of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) as flame retardants in consumer products worldwide has caused PBDEs to now be regarded as pervasive environmental contaminants. Most recently, hydroxylated PBDEs (OH-PBDEs) and methoxylated PBDEs (MeO-PBDEs) have emerged as environmentally relevant due to reports of their natural production and metabolism. An important parameter for assessing the environmental impact of a chemical substance is persistence. By formulating the concept that persistence is the result of the substance's physicochemical properties and chemical reactivity, Green and Bergman have proposed a new methodology to determine the inherent persistence of a chemical. If persistence could be predicted by straightforward methods, substances with this quality could be screened out before large-scale production/manufacturing begins. To provide data to implement this concept, we have developed new methodologies to study chemical transformations through photolysis; hydrolysis, substitution, and elimination; and via oxidation. This study has focused on adapting an oxidative reaction method to be applicable to non-water soluble organic pollutants. MATERIALS AND METHODS: PBDEs and one MeO-PBDE were dissolved in tetrahydrofuran/methanol and then diluted in alkaline water. The OH-PBDEs were dissolved in alkaline water prior to reaction. The oxidation degradation reaction was performed at 50 degrees C using potassium permanganate as described elsewhere. The pH was maintained at 7.6 with disodium hydrogen phosphate and barium hydrogen phosphate, the latter also serving as a trapping agent for manganate ions. The oxidation reactions were monitored by high-performance liquid chromatography and reaction rates were calculated. RESULTS: The OH-PBDEs have very fast oxidative transformation rates compared to the PBDEs. The reaction rates seem to be primarily dependent on substitution pattern of the pi-electron-donating bromine substituents and of bromine content. There are indications that further reactions of OH-PBDEs, e.g., methylation to the MeO-PBDEs, decrease the oxidation rates, and thereby generate more persistent substances. DISCUSSION: The resistance of PBDEs to oxidation, a major degradation pathway in air, should be further investigated, since these compounds do undergo long range transport. With slight modifications, the original method has been adapted to include a larger variety of chemical substances, and preliminary data are now available on the oxidative transformation rates for PBDEs and of OH-PBDEs. CONCLUSIONS: The original oxidation degradation method can now include non-water soluble compounds. This modification, using low concentrations of test chemicals, allows us to measure oxidative transformation rates, for some of the lower brominated DEs, data that can be used to assess their persistence in future model calculations. Oxidative transformation rates for PBDEs are slow compared to those for the OH-PBDEs. This suggests that OH-PBDEs, when released into the environment, undergo faster oxidative metabolism and excretion than the PBDEs. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: To evaluate the modified method, more degradation reactions with non-water soluble compounds should be investigated. Recent studies show that OH-PBDEs are present in rats and in humans and, because of their activity as endocrine disruptors, determining their subsequent environmental fate is of importance. The resistance of PBDEs to oxidative degradation should be acknowledged as of possible future concern. Several other compound classes (such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hydroxylated polychlorinated biphenyls (OH-PCBs), and pharmaceuticals) need to be subjected to this screening method to increase the database of transformation rates that can be used with this model.