Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Nutritionally relevant elements in staple foods: influence of arable site versus choice of variety

Eighteen representative sites for the Austrian grain-growing and eight for the potato-growing zones (soils and crops) were investigated. On each site, total element contents (B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P, Sr and Zn) were determined in 4–12 varieties of winter wheat (n = 136), 6 varieties of spring durum wheat (n = 30), 5 varieties of winter durum wheat (n = 15), 7 varieties of rye (n = 49), 5 varieties of spring barley (n = 30) and 5 varieties of potatoes (n = 40). Element accumulations in grain species and potato tubers varied significantly with site conditions, with the main exceptions for B in potatoes and wheat as well as for Zn, Cu and Co in durum wheat. On average, across all investigated sites, differences in varieties occurred concerning the elements Ca, Cd, Ba, Sr and Zn (except Zn in potatoes and winter durum). A rough estimation revealed that an average Austrian consumer of wheat, rye and potatoes meets more than 50% of the needs of daily element intake for K, P and Mg, between 36 and 72% for Fe, Zn and Cu, and more than 100% for Co, Mo and Mn. In particular, the elements Ca and Na have to be added from other sources.     

Colorful tails fade when lizards adopt less risky behaviors

Colorful tails that become cryptic during ontogeny are found in diverse taxa. Nevertheless, the evolutionary bases for this change remain debated. Recent work suggests that colorful tails, deflective displays, and striped patterns may represent antipredator mechanisms used by immature lizards to compensate for being more active and hence more vulnerable to predation (increased movement hypothesis, IMH). I challenged the generality of IMH by comparing foraging behavior and frequency of tail displays across five Acanthodactylus lizards that vary in fundamental life history traits, before and after the tail changed color. As these species underwent changes in tail coloration, they congruently adopted less risky behaviors and reduced the frequencies of tail displays. Contrary to expectation, in two species, the hatchling risky behavior resulted not from increased movements but from longer stay in exposed microhabitats. I suggest that colorful tails and deflective tail displays are synergistic antipredator mechanisms neonates use to minimize the fitness consequences of using various risky behaviors rather than increased movement alone.     

Changes of movement patterns from early dispersal to settlement

Moving and spatial learning are two intertwined processes: (a) changes in movement behavior determine the learning of the spatial environment, and (b) information plays a crucial role in several animal decision-making processes like movement decisions. A useful way to explore the interactions between movement decisions and learning of the spatial environment is by comparing individual behaviors during the different phases of natal dispersal (when individuals move across more or less unknown habitats) with movements and choices of breeders (who repeatedly move within fixed home ranges), that is, by comparing behaviors between individuals who are still acquiring information vs. individuals with a more complete knowledge of their surroundings. When analyzing movement patterns of eagle owls, Bubo bubo, belonging to three status classes (floaters wandering across unknown environments, floaters already settled in temporary settlement areas, and territory owners with a well-established home range), we found that: (1) wandering individuals move faster than when established in a more stable or fixed settlement area, traveling larger and straighter paths with longer move steps; and (2) when floaters settle in a permanent area, then they show movement behavior similar to territory owners. Thus, movement patterns show a transition from exploratory strategies, when animals have incomplete environmental information, to a more familiar way to exploit their activity areas as they get to know the environment better.     

Female seed beetles, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callosobruchus maculatus,</Emphasis> remate for male-supplied water rather than ejaculate nutrition

Female seed beetles, Callosobruchus maculatus, mate multiply even though association with males and copulations carry costs, such as injury to the genital tract. Multiple mating (polyandry) may, however, offset these costs through the acquisition of food and water, two material benefits hypothesized to be obtained from the large ejaculates produced by males. The material benefits hypothesis can be tested by increasing female access to nutrients and water, with the prediction that female mating frequency will decrease as copulation is no longer required to derive these materials. Females were given water, 5% sugar–water or baker’s yeast, and were compared with females deprived of these. We presented females with virgin males daily for 8 days and recorded female mating frequency, survivorship, and fecundity. Females provided with water and sugar–water decreased mating frequency. Thus, water, rather than nutrients in the ejaculate, appears to be important to females of this species. In addition, both life span and fecundity were extended for females in the sugar–water and water treatments. Since water is scarce in the arid environment in which this species is found, we conclude that polyandry provides material benefits to females that may offset some of the costs of associating with males.     

Inception of formation and early morphogenesis of the bacterial light organ of the sea urchin cardinalfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Siphamia versicolor</Emphasis>

The cardinalfish Siphamia versicolor (Perciformes: Apogonidae) forms a bioluminescent symbiosis with the marine luminous bacterium Photobacterium mandapamensis, harboring the bacteria in a ventral, disc-shaped light organ and using the bacterial light apparently for counterillumination and attracting prey. Little definitive information has been available on the developmental and microbiological events surrounding the initiation of symbiosis, a critical stage in the life history of the fish, in S. versicolor or any of the many other species of bacterially luminous fish. To identify the stage at which light organ formation begins, to determine the origin of cells forming the light organ, and to characterize its bacterial colonization status during development, early developmental stages of S. versicolor obtained and reared from wild-caught mouth-brooding males were examined with histological and microbiological methods. A light organ primordium was not evident in embryos, post-embryos, or pre-release larvae, whereas the light organ began to form within 1 day of release of full-term pre-flexion larvae from the mouths of male fish. Analysis of post-release larvae revealed that the light organ arises from a proliferation and differentiation of intestinal epithelial cells, and that it quickly develops structural complexity, including the formation of chambers and gaps contiguous with the intestinal epithelium. However, the nascent light organ remained uncolonized by the symbiotic bacteria through several days of post-release development, even in the presence of high numbers of the symbiotic bacteria. These results demonstrate that the inception of light organ formation in S. versicolor occurs independently of its symbiotic bacteria and that receptivity to bacterial colonization apparently requires substantial post-release development of the light organ. Larvae therefore most likely acquire their symbiotic bacteria from seawater, during or shortly after the transition from the pre-flexion to the flexion developmental stage.     

Clearance rates of the great scallop (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pecten maximus</Emphasis>) and blue mussel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus edulis</Emphasis>) at low natural seston concentrations

Great scallop, Pecten maximus, and blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, clearance rate (CR) responses to low natural seston concentrations were investigated in the laboratory to study (1) short-term CR variations in individual bivalves exposed to a single low seston diet, and (2) seasonal variations in average CR responses of bivalve cohorts to natural environmental variations. On a short temporal scale, mean CR response of both species to 0.06 μg L⁻¹ chlorophyll a (Chl a) and 0.23 mg L⁻¹ suspended particulate matter (SPM) remained constant despite large intra-individual fluctuations in CR. In the seasonal study, cohorts of each species were exposed to four seston treatments consisting of ambient and diluted natural seston that ranged in mean concentration from 0.15 to 0.43 mg L⁻¹ SPM, 0.01 to 0.88 μg L⁻¹ Chl a, 36 to 131 μg L⁻¹ particulate organic carbon and 0.019 to 0.330 mm³ L⁻¹ particle volume. Although food abundance in all treatments was low, the nutritional quality of the seston was relatively high (e.g., mean particulate organic content ranged from 68 to 75%). Under these low seston conditions, a high percentage of P. maximus (81–98%) and M. edulis (67–97%) actively cleared particles at mean rates between 9 and 12 and between 4 and 6 L g⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively. For both species, minimum mean CR values were obtained for animals exposed to the lowest seston concentrations. Within treatments, P. maximus showed a greater degree of seasonality in CR than M. edulis, which fed at a relatively constant rate despite seasonal changes in food and temperature. P. maximus showed a non-linear CR response to increasing Chl a levels, with rates increasing to a maximum at approximately 0.4 μg L⁻¹ Chl a and then decreasing as food quantity continued to increase. Mean CR of M. edulis also peaked at a similar concentration, but remained high and stable as the food supply continued to increase and as temperatures varied between 4.6 and 19.6°C. The results show that P. maximus and M. edulis from a low seston environment, do not stop suspension-feeding at very low seston quantities; a result that contradicts previous conclusions on the suspension-feeding behavior of bivalve mollusks and which is pertinent to interpreting the biogeographic distribution of bivalve mollusks and site suitability for aquaculture.     

Ambrosia artemisiifolia in an Anthropogenic Landscape of Gomel Polesye

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

The Outcome of Northern Fur Seal Harvesting: The Results of Calibration of Mathematical Models Based on Observation Data (the Example of Tyulenii Island Population)

Tendencies in the dynamics of harvested northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population on the Tyulenii Island have been analyzed in detail. The results show that retardation of reproduction (decrease in the numbers of pups) and decline in the survival of young females (up to 3 years of age) by the late 1980s resulted in a reduction of the total number of females and a significant increase in the proportion of older females. This tendency changed during the later observation period (after 1988–1989) due to increase in the survival of young females: the female population has gradually recovered, with the proportion of young females increasing at the expense of old females (aged over 10 years). The age composition of males has also changed: the proportion of young animals has decreased, while that of large mature males (bulls) has increased. Moreover, the number of bulls continues to increase and has already exceeded the level that formerly provided for the well-being of the population. This, a paradoxical situation has arisen: the numbers of females and bulls are increasing, whereas pup production remains at a low level.