Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

On the dissipation rate of temperature fluctuations in stably stratified flows

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - In this study, we explore several integral and outer length scales of turbulence which can be formulated by using the dissipation of temperature fluctuations (...     

21世纪可替代脊椎动物进行生态毒性测试的方法：过去二十年的发展和现状综述

替代脊椎动物进行化学物质和污染物危害评估的方法已成为越来越重要的需求。现在首先要考虑的是当启动一个脊椎动物生态毒性测试,必须确保不必要的脊椎动物生物的使用尽可能最小化。对于一些监管目的,脊椎动物的使用对环境风险评估(ERA)已经被禁止,而在其他情况下生物测试的数量已经大大减少了,或者测试程序严格精简了。然而,想要获得能够完全替代脊椎动物提供环境危害数据的方法仍有很长的路要走。动物替代品的发展不仅仅是基于道德的考虑,也可以降低执行脊椎动物生态毒性测试的成本以及在某些情况下能够提供更好的信息旨在改进环境风险评估。本文集中综述了在过去的几十年里生态毒性评估替代方法所发生的重大的进展。
精选自Adam Lillicrap, Scott Belanger, Natalie Burden, David Du Pasquier, Michelle R. Embry, Marlies Halder, Mark A. Lampi, Lucy Lee, Teresa Norberg-King, Barnett A. Rattner, Kristin Schirmer, Paul Thomas. Alternative approaches to vertebrate ecotoxicity tests in the 21st century: a review of developments over the last two decades and current status. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 11, pages 2637–2646, November 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3603
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3603/full
     

In-hive patterns of temporal polyethism in strains of honey bees (Apis mellifera) with distinct genetic backgrounds

Honey bee workers exhibit an age-based division of labor (temporal polyethism, DOL). Younger bees transition through sets of tasks within the nest; older bees forage outside. Components of temporal polyethism remain unrevealed. Here, we investigate the timing and pattern of pre-foraging behavior in distinct strains of bees to (1) determine if a general pattern of temporal DOL exists in honey bees, (2) to demonstrate a direct genetic impact on temporal pacing, and (3) to further elucidate the mechanisms controlling foraging initiation. Honey bees selected for differences in stored pollen demonstrate consistent differences in foraging initiation age. Those selected for increased pollen storage (high pollen hoarding strain, HSBs) initiate foraging earlier in life than those selected for decreased pollen storage (low pollen hoarding strain, LSBs). We found that HSBs both initiate and terminate individual pre-foraging tasks earlier than LSBs when housed in a common hive environment. Unselected commercial bees (wild type) generally demonstrated intermediate behavioral timing. There were few differences between genotypes for the proportion of pre-foraging effort dedicated to individual tasks, though total pre-foraging effort differences differed dramatically. This demonstrates that behavioral pacing can be accelerated or slowed, but the pattern of behavior is not fundamentally altered, suggesting a general pattern of temporal behavior in honey bees. This also demonstrates direct genetic control of temporal pacing. Finally, our results suggest that earlier HSB protein (pollen) consumption termination compared to LSBs may contribute to an earlier decline in hemolymph vitellogenin protein titers, which would explain their earlier onset of foraging.     

New aspect in seagrass acclimation: leaf mechanical properties vary spatially and seasonally in the temperate species Cymodocea nodosa Ucria (Ascherson)

Seagrasses may acclimate to environmental heterogeneity through phenotypic plasticity. In contrast to leaf morphology, which has been a central point in seagrass acclimation studies, plasticity in leaf biomechanics and fibre content is poorly understood, despite being crucial in plant ecological performance, especially regarding physical forces. We hypothesised that mechanical traits (e.g. breaking force, strength, toughness, and stiffness) and fibre content of seagrass leaves vary as morphology does under differential environments. Cymodocea nodosa was seasonally monitored at three locations around Cádiz Bay (southern Spain) with hydrodynamic regime as the most noticeable difference between them. Leaves showed plasticity in both morphology and mechanical traits, with wave-exposed individuals presenting short but extensible and tough leaves. Leaf fibre content was invariant along the year and with little spatial variability. Cross-sectional area rather than material properties or fibre content differentiates leaf mechanical resistance. Seagrass capacity to thrive under a range of mechanical forces may be dictated by their plasticity in morpho-biomechanical traits, a key element for the hydrodynamical performance and, hence, for species colonisation and distribution.     

On the evidence for species coexistence: a critique of the coexistence program

A major challenge in ecology is to understand how the millions of species on Earth are organized into biological communities. Mechanisms promoting coexistence are one such class of organizing processes, which allow multiple species to persist in the same trophic level of a given web of species interactions. If some mechanism promotes the coexistence of two or more species, each species must be able to increase when it is rare and the others are at their typical abundances; this invasibility criterion is fundamental evidence for species coexistence regardless of the mechanism. In an attempt to evaluate the level of empirical support for coexistence mechanisms in nature, we surveyed the literature for empirical studies of coexistence at a local scale (i.e., species found living together in one place) to determine whether these studies satisfied the invasibility criterion. In our survey, only seven of 323 studies that drew conclusions about species coexistence evaluated invasibility in some way in either observational or experimental studies. In addition, only three other studies evaluated necessary but not sufficient conditions for invasibility (i.e., negative density dependence and a trade-off in performance that influences population regulation). These results indicate that, while species coexistence is a prevalent assumption for why species are able to live together in one place, critical empirical tests of this fundamental assumption of community structure are rarely performed. These tests are central to developing a more robust understanding of the relative contributions of both deterministic and stochastic processes structuring biological communities.     

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction-diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.     

Bold minnows consistently approach danger in the field and lab in response to either chemical or visual indicators of predation risk

A behavioral syndrome is a suite of behaviors correlated across multiple social contexts. In this study, boldness in the face of predation risk was assessed twice in fish across two different sensory modalities in both the field and lab to ascertain the biological relevance and complexity of this attribute. Individual fathead minnows were captured from a natural field population using traps that either contained chemical alarm cues (conspecific skin extract) or control (well water) and their responses to the presence of predator behind a glass partition assessed in the laboratory. Although fewer fish were captured in alarm cue-labeled traps, these bold fish performed longer predator inspections than shy fish captured in control traps. Thus, a shy/bold behavioral syndrome was expressed consistently across field and lab settings in response to both chemical and visual indicators of danger. Shy and bold individuals did not differ in sex, body length, secondary sexual characteristics, or parasite load but were of more robust physical condition.     

Force-Velocity Characteristics of Individual Human Skeletal Muscles: TBCIat and TBCIong. Outline of the Method

The aim of the work is to outline a procedure of finding force-velocity (F–V) characteristics (F = f(V)) of individual skeletal muscles of the human locomotor system. The presentation is based on an example concerning extensors of the elbow joint: the lateral and long heads of triceps brachii (TBCIat and TBCIong). The experimental part of the procedure involves a natural movement of using the upper extremity to push an external object of variable, adjustable load, engaging both the elbow and shoulder joint.

Five men aged 23 took part in the experiment. Their task was to push the handle of a physical pendulum whose moment of inertia could be adjusted within the range of 58 kg m²-450 kg m², so as to give it maximum angular velocity. During each trial the movement of the trunk, of the upper extremity and of the pendulum was video recorded and the force applied with the hand to the handle of the pendulum was measured.

In order to find the F–V characteristics a simulation model SHOULDER was used, which is capable of solving the synergy problem for muscles of the arm and the shoulder girdle.

It was found that despite considerable dispersion of experimental points the respective regression lines revealed a clear tendency of decreasing muscle force for increased shortening velocity of the monoarticular head (TBCIat) and of increasing muscle force for increased lengthening velocity of the biarticular head (TBCIong) of the triceps brachii muscle.