全球粮食生产的预测问题

本文讨论了全球粮食生产体系能力预测模型的研发问题，文章特别对影响粮食生产的各种因素进行了鉴定和分析，并且对它们的相对影响和可预测性进行了估计。     

Total quality practitioner. Improving environmental process

Quick fix. Putting out firs. Do it over. Fix it again. Bottlenecks. Come back to it later. Out of stock. Back order. Not what we ordered. Is that the best you can do? It's the contractor's fault. Not within specs. Defective. Nobody's perfect. Lost in the system. Over budget. Delayed. Late penalities. Fines.     

Composition of Floating Debris in Harbours of the United States

As part of a programme to characterize floating anthropogenic debris in the aquatic environment, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted 18 field surveys in the harbours of major metropolitan cities of the east, west, and Gulf coasts of the United States and the Mid-Atlantic Bight. the surveys were designed to provide information on the types, relative amounts, and distributions of aquatic debris in different geographic regions of the United States. Neuston nets (0.33 mm mesh) were used to collect surface debris during outgoing tides on two or three consecutive days in selected areas of each city. After each net tow, the debris, which ranged in size from small resin pellets to large plastic sheeting pieces, was identified, categorized, and counted. the data are being used to qualitatively characterize aquatic debris in coastal metropolitan areas, to examine potential regional variations, and to tentatively identify potential sources.     

The Impact of Agriculture On Dissolved Nitrogen and Phosphorus Cycling in Temperate Ecosystems

Although most research has focussed on inorganic nutrient forms of nitrate (NO^-₃) and phosphorus (PO³₄) in runoff and receiving waters, nitrogen loss from agricultural land can also occur in organic and ammonium-nitrogen form; phosphorus losses, although often dominated by particulate transport, may occur in soluble organic and inorganic form. Furthermore, fluxes between different species may take place during transport from the land to the stream and as a result of in-stream, in-river or in-lake transformations. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal variation in all nitrogen species and phosphorus fractions in a drainage basin is therefore essential if the wider environmental significance of elevated nutrient concentrations in natural waters are to be assessed. This paper reviews recent work on N and P losses from agricultural land and presents some results from two intensive agricultural catchments: Slapton, Devon and the river Windrush catchment in the Cotswolds.     

Multicriteria Group Decision-making Model for Environmental Conflict Analysis in the Cape Region,Mexico

This paper is concerned with developing a model for group decision making under multiple criteria. The multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM)problem involves a set of feasible land use patterns that are evaluated on the basis of multiple, conflicting and noncommensurate criteria by a group of individuals. The model integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an integer mathematical programming method. The former provides a tool for structuring the decision problem and determining land suitability for different socio-economicactivities (the uses of land), the latter is used to identify the land use pattern that maximizes consensus among interest groups. The model is used to analyze environmental conflict over land resource allocation in the Cape Region of Mexico.     

Exploring Chemical Variables in Ligustrum lucidum Ait. F. Tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in Relation to Air Pollutants and Environmental Conditions

Ligustrum lucidum Ait. f. tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in relation to atmospheric pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina. The study area receives regional pollutants and was categorized taking into account traffic level, industrial density, type of industry, location of the sample point in relation to the street corner, treeless condition, and topographic level. Dried weight/fresh weight ratio (DW/FW) and specific leaf area (SLA) were calculated, and concentrations of chlorophylls, carotenoids, total sulfur, soluble proteins, malondialdehyde (MDA), and hydroperoxy conjugated dienes (HPCD) were determined in leaf samples. Sulfur content correlates positively with traffic density and SLA correlates negatively with some combinations of the categorical variables; MDA correlates positively with topographic level and total protein concentration correlates negatively with treeless condition. On the basis of our results, traffic, location of trees, type of industry, situation of a tree with respect to others, and topographic level are the environmental variables to bear in mind when selecting analogous sampling points in a passive monitoring program. An approximation to predict tree injury may be obtained by measuring DW/FW ratio, proteins, pigments, HPCD, and MDA as they are responsible for the major variability of data.     

GHG Mitigation Potential and Cost in Tropical Forestry - Relative Role for Agroforestry

This paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential (MP) and costs of forestry options in seven developing countries with a focus on the role of agroforestry. A common methodological approach known as comprehensive mitigation assessment process (COMAP) was used in each study to estimate the potential and costs between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios derived from the demand for forest products and forestland for other uses such as agriculture and pasture. By using data on estimated carbon sequestration, emission avoidance, costs and benefits, the model enables one to estimate cost effectiveness indicators based on monetary benefit per t C, as well as estimates of total mitigation costs and potential when the activities are implemented at equilibrium level. The results show that about half the MP of 6.9 Gt C (an average of 223 Mt C per year) between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries could be achieved at a negative cost, and the other half at costs not exceeding $100 per t C. Negative cost indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of about half of the options. The agroforestry options analyzed bear a significant proportion of the potential at medium to low cost per t C when compared to other options. The role of agroforestry in these countries varied between 6% and 21% of the MP, though the options are much more cost effective than most due to the low wage or opportunity cost of rural labor. Agroforestry options are attractive due to the large number of people and potential area currently engaged in agriculture, but they pose unique challenges for carbon and cost accounting due to the dispersed nature of agricultural activities in the tropics, as well as specific difficulties arising from requirements for monitoring, verification, leakage assessment and the establishment of credible baselines.     

Mangroves as nursery sites: comparisons of the abundance and species composition of fish and crustaceans in mangroves and other nearshore habitats in tropical Australia

Daytime sampling of mangrove and seagrass (Halophila/Halodule community) habitats every 7 wk at Alligator Creek, Queensland, Australia, over a period of 13 mo (February 1985–February 1986) using two types of seine net, revealed distinct mangrove and seagrass fish and crustacean faunas. Total abundance of fish and relative abundance of small and large fish also varied between habitats and seasonally. Post-larval, juvenile and small adult fish captured with a small seine-net (3 mm mesh) were significantly more abundant (4 to 10 times) in the mangrove habitat throughout the 13 mo of sampling. Mangrove fish abundance showed significant seasonality, greatest catches being recorded in the warm, wet-season months of the year. Relative abundances of larger fish (captured in a seine net with 18 mm mesh) in the two habitats varied throughout the year, but did not show a seasonal pattern. At the same site, small crustaceans were significantly more abundant in the mangroves in all but one dryseason sample. Similar comparisons for three riverine sites, sampled less frequently, in the dry and wet seasons of 1985 and 1986, respectively, showed that in general mangrove habitats had significantly more fish per sample, although the relative abundance of fish in mangroves and other habitats changed with season. Crustacean catches showed a similar pattern, except that densities among sites changed with season. Fish and crustacean abundance in mangroves varied among sites, indicating that estuaries differ in their nursery-ground value. The juveniles of two commercially important penaeid prawn species (Penaeus merguiensis and Metapenaeus ensis) were amongst the top three species of crustaceans captured in the study, and both were significantly more abundant in the mangrove habitat. By contrast, mangroves could not be considered an important nursery for juveniles of commercially important fish species in northern Australia. However, based on comparisons of fish catches in other regions, the results of the present study indicate the importance of mangroves as nursery sites for commercially exploited fish stocks elsewhere in South-East Asia. Contribution No. 378 from the Australian Institute of Marine Science