Combining Stochastic Optimization and Monte Carlo Simulation to Deal with Uncertainties in Climate Policy Assessment

In this paper, we explore the impact of several sources of uncertainties on the assessment of energy and climate policies when one uses in a harmonized way stochastic programming in a large-scale bottom-up (BU) model and Monte Carlo simulation in a large-scale top-down (TD) model. The BU model we use is the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model, which is run in a stochastic programming version to provide a hedging emission policy to cope with the uncertainty characterizing climate sensitivity. The TD model we use is the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3. Through Monte Carlo simulations of randomly generated uncertain parameter values, one provides a stochastic micro- and macro-economic analysis. Through statistical analysis of the simulation results, we analyse the impact of the uncertainties on the policy assessment.     

Designing Connected and Compact Nature Reserves

It is generally accepted that for many species, the ability to get around a reserve promotes their long-term persistence. Here, we measure the ease with which species can move by two spatial criteria: (i) the connectivity of the reserve, that is to say, the possibility to go through the whole reserve without leaving it, and (ii) the compactness of the reserve, that is to say, the remoteness of the sites in relation to each other, the distance between two sites being measured by the shortest distance to travel to get from one site to another without leaving the reserve. To protect the reserve of external disturbances, we also impose a connectivity constraint for the area outside the reserve. This article presents a method based on integer linear programming to define connected and compact reserves. Computational experiments carried out on artificial instances with 400 sites and 100 species are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.     

Hare or Tortoise? Trade-offs in Recovering Sustainable Bioeconomic Systems

In this paper, we develop a framework for (a) the study of sustainability of dynamic bioeconomic systems and (b) the definition of recovery paths from unsustainable situations. We assume that the system follows a sustainable trajectory if it evolves over time within a set of multidimensional constraints. We use the mathematical concept of viability to characterize sustainability. Recovery paths are studied with regards to their duration and their acceptability. This general framework is applied to the issue of recovering sustainable fisheries. We define sustainability in a fishery as the requirement that a set of economic, ecological, and social constraints is satisfied at all times. Recovery paths are characterized by the time required to obtain sustainable exploitation conditions in the fishery and by the acceptable recovery costs for fishermen. In particular, we identify the recovery path which minimizes the time of crisis under a minimum transition profit constraint. We then describe the trade-off between speed and accepted costs of recovery paths, by comparing “Hare”-like high-speed–high-cost strategies to “Tortoise”-like low-speed–low-cost strategies. We illustrate our results by means of a numerical analysis of the Bay of Biscay Nephrops fishery.     

How to Take into Account Uncertainty in Species Extinction Probabilities for Phylogenetic Conservation Prioritization

In this article, we are concerned with the general problem of choosing from a set of taxa T a subset S to protect in order to try to contribute to halting biodiversity loss as efficiently as possible given limited resources. The protection of a taxon decreases its extinction probability, and the impact of protecting the taxa of S is measured by the resulting expected phylogenetic diversity (ePD) of the set T. The primary challenge posed by this approach lies in determining the extinction probability of a taxon (protected or unprotected). To deal with this difficulty, the uncertainty about the extinction probabilities can be described through a set of possible scenarios, each corresponding to different extinction probability values for each taxon. We show how to determine an “optimal robust set” of taxa to protect, defined as the set of taxa that minimizes the maximum “regret,” i.e., the maximum relative gap, over all the scenarios, between (1) the ePD of T obtained by protecting the taxa of this set and (2) the ePD of T which would be produced by protecting the subset of taxa optimal for the considered scenario. In our experimental conditions covering 100 cases, this gap is almost always less than 1%. Consequently, the ePD of T obtained by protecting the taxa of the optimal robust set is not far from the maximum ePD of T that could have been obtained if we had known the true scenario. In other words, a way of escaping (in large part, at least) from the uncertainty related to the extinction probabilities of the taxa consists of choosing to protect those belonging to the optimal robust set. We also compare the optimal robust set to other relevant subsets of T.     

Ant cuticular response to phthalate pollution

Phthalates are common atmospheric contaminants used in the plastic industry. Ants have been shown to constitute good bioindicators of phthalate pollution. Hence, phthalates remain trapped on ant cuticles which are mostly coated with long-chain hydrocarbons. In this study, we artificially contaminated Lasius niger ants with four phthalates: dibutyl phthalate (DBP), diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP), di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), and benzyl butyl phthalate (BBP). The first three have previously been found on ants in nature in Touraine (France), while the fourth has not. The four phthalates disappeared rapidly (less than 5 days) from the cuticles of live ants. In contrast, on the cuticles of dead ants, DEHP quantities remained unchanged over time. These results indicate that phthalates are actively absorbed by the cuticles of live ants. Cuticular absorption of phthalates is nonspecific because eicosane, a nonnatural hydrocarbon on L. niger cuticle, was similarly absorbed. Ants are important ecological engineers and may serve as bioindicators of ecosystem health. We also suggest that ants and more generally terrestrial arthropods may contribute to the removal of phthalates from the local environment.     

Why seeking feedback from diverse sources may not be sufficient for stimulating creativity: The role of performance dynamism and creative time pressure

We explore how the impact of seeking feedback from different sources (i.e., feedback source variety) on employee creativity is shaped by perceptions of the work environment. Specifically, we argue that two contextual factors, namely, performance dynamism (Study 1) and creative time pressure (Study 2), moderate the relationship between feedback source variety and creativity such that under conditions of high performance dynamism and low creative time pressure, individuals benefit from diverse feedback information. In Study 1 (N = 1,031), the results showed that under conditions of high performance dynamism, the relationship between feedback source variety and self‐reported creativity was nonlinear, with employee creativity exponentially increasing as a function of feedback source variety. Similarly, in Study 2 (N = 181), we found that under conditions of low creative time pressure, the relationship between feedback source variety and employee creativity was nonlinear, with supervisor‐rated creative performance exponentially increasing at higher levels of feedback source variety. Such results highlight that the relationship between feedback source variety and creative performance is affected by the perceptions of the work environment in which feedback is sought.     

Realistic approach of pesticide residues and French consumer exposure within fruit & vegetable intake

The increase of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake contributes to the prevention of chronic diseases, but could also significantly increase pesticide exposure and may thus be of health concern. Following a previous pesticide exposure assessment study, the present study was carried out to determine actual levels of pesticides within 400 g of F&V intake and to evaluate consumer risk. Forty-three Active Substances (AS) exceeding 10 % of the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) in balanced menus established for our previous theoretical study were considered. Fifty-six pooled food samples were analyzed: 28 fruit samples and 28 vegetable samples. Pesticide values were compared to Maximum Residue Levels (MRL) and to the "toxicological credit" derived from ADI. It was observed that 23 out of the 43 retained AS were never detected, 5 were detected both in F&V samples, 12 only in fruits and 3 only in vegetables. The most frequently detected AS were carbendazim, iprodione and dithiocarbamates. When detected, AS were more frequently found in fruit samples (74 %) than in vegetable samples (26 %). A maximum of 3 AS were detected at once in a given sample. Overall, we observed 8 and 14 overruns of the MRL in 1204 measures in pooled vegetable and fruit samples, respectively (0.7 % and 1.2 % of cases, respectively). Chronic exposure for adults was the highest for dithiocarbamates but did not exceed 23.7 % of the ADI in F&V. It was concluded that raising both F&V consumption up to 400 g/day (~5 F&V/day) according to recommendations of the national health and nutrition plan, does not induce pesticide overexposure and should not represent a risk for the consumer.     

Thermodynamic and kinetic study of phenol degradation by a non-catalytic wet air oxidation process

This work is dedicated to an accurate evaluation of thermodynamic and kinetics aspects of phenol degradation using wet air oxidation process. Phenol is a well known polluting molecule and therefore it is important having data of its behaviour during this process. A view cell is used for the experimental study, with an internal volume of 150 mL, able to reach pressures up to 30 MPa and temperatures up to 350 °C. Concerning the thermodynamic phase equilibria, experimental and modelling results are obtained for different binary systems (water/nitrogen, water/air) and ternary system (water/nitrogen/phenol). The best model is the Predictive Soave Redlich Kwong one. This information is necessary to predict the composition of the gas phase during the process. It is also important for an implementation in a process simulation. The second part is dedicated to kinetics evaluation of the degradation of phenol. Different compounds have been detected using GC coupled with a MS. A kinetic scheme is deduced, taking into account the evolution of phenol, hydroquinones, catechol, resorcinol and acetic acid. The kinetic parameters are calculated for this scheme. These data are important to evaluate the evolution of the concentration of the different polluting molecules during the process. A simplified kinetic scheme, which can be easily implemented in a process simulation, is also determined for the direct degradation of phenol into H₂O and CO₂. The Arrhenius law data obtained for the phenol disappearance are the following: k = 1.8 × 10⁶ ± 3.9 × 10⁵ M⁻¹ s⁻¹ (pre-exponential factor) and E_a = 77 ± 8 kJ mol⁻¹ (activation energy).     

Spread of the native grass <Emphasis Type="Italic">Elymus athericus</Emphasis> in salt marshes of Mont-Saint-Michel bay as an unusual case of coastal eutrophication

Contrary to many estuaries where the increase in inputs of nitrogenous nutrients results in a macro-algal or phytoplanktonic bloom, no proliferation of this kind has ever been observed in the waters of Mont-Saint-Michel bay (north-western France) owing to a very high turbidity which greatly limits light penetration. On the other hand, it is well known that the factor that usually limits the growth of vascular plants in salt marshes is not the light resource but nitrogen availability; these plant species are therefore able to benefit fully from the enrichment of water by nitrogenous compounds. This seems to be the case of the sea couch grass Elymus athericus that has spread very rapidly on the salt marshes of this site since the mid-1980s. Firstly, the present study (i) accurately documents, from a compilation of data from administrative archives, the changes in agricultural land use in the major watersheds during the period 1970–2010, together with related changes in the nitrate contents of the rivers flowing into the bay; (ii) quantifies the spatial spread of sea couch grass between 1984 and 2013 from the five maps made during this period. In the second part, using in-depth analysis based on the findings of previous studies, it shows that the expansion of this native grass corresponds to a biological invasion phenomenon, for which nitrogen enrichment of the bay seems to be the only plausible explanation.