ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Development and use of site-specific chemical and biological criteria for assessing New Bedford Harbor pilot dredging project

Numerical site-specific chemical and biological criteria were established to assess the impact of a pilot dredging project on water quality at the New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts, USA, Superfund site. Because most existing chemical concentrations in the water column and indigenous biota exceeded federal and state water quality limits, the derivation of site-specific criteria was required. Prior to any operational phases of the project (i.e., dike construction, dredging), criteria values were developed from background concentrations of PCBs and metals in water and biota, as well as for the toxic effects of water quality on the biota. During each operational phase of the project, water samples were collected, analyzed within 16 h, and the data supplied to a management committee in order to assess the environmental impact of the previous days' operation. The ambient unfiltered water concentration of PCBs and metals were the only chemical or biological criteria exceeded. Modification of the next days' operations resulted in a return of these concentrations to background levels. The combined use of site-specific criteria and a real-time decision making management process allowed for successful completion of this project with a minimal effect on water quality.     

A view from the countryside

Guest Editorial

A view from the countryside     

Mining investment promotion

Attitudes in developing countries with respect to private investment in natural resources have changed substantially in recent years. Countries must now compete for such investment by ensuring that policies pertaining to state participation, financing, marketing and taxation of mining ventures provide the investor with returns that are commensurate with the risks taken. Governments must also be prepared to help the investor compete on world markets through lower capital and operating costs. This entails granting exemptions of customs, excise and value added taxes as well as providing for policies on taxation, government participation, industrial relations, safety and environment, and procurement and personnel that are in line with international mining industry standards. Efforts to promote mining sector investment through the strengthening of technical ministries, preparation of basic geological and project information, investment symposia and an international mining council can be helpful in bringing opportunities to the attention of the investment community. But, these efforts can only succeed if the policy changes now being put into place continue to evolve and contribute to an atmosphere in which entrepreneurship and private investment can flourish.     

Fiscal incentives for Australian bushland

The clearing of over 80% of the native vegetation from Australian agricultural areas has contributed significantly to the degradation classification applied to more than half this land. Soil erosion, siltation, and salinity damage continue to increase yearly. This situation not only threatens the productivity of the farm sector but has contributed to the estimated loss of 78 species of native flora, endangerment of an additional 2206 species, and the loss of 20 species of Australia's marsupials.Private returns diverge from social returns because the action (or inaction) of farmers has an impact upon others, both now and in the future. There is justification, therefore, for the public sector to intervene on behalf of society in an attempt to influence private decision making for the social good. This article argues for increased incentives from the public sector in Australia to encourage the voluntary cooperation of farmers to improve the balance between development and conservation. In contrast to the essentially temporary nature of man-made measures such as flood-mitigating capital works, increasing the area set aside to native bushland offers scope for the permanent stewardship of the resource—land.     

Indonesia's developing forest industry

Indonesia is a major exporter of tropical hardwoods. The country's goal is to establish integrated wood industries by reducing the export of unprocessed sawlogs. The value of hardwood sawlog exports has decreased by twothirds in 1986 dollars since 1978, while the value of hardwood sawnwood and plywood exports has increased sixfold. Sawlog exports are now banned. This article contrasts the official governmental policy on forest industry development with the operational realities of doing business in Indonesia.     

The Economics of Small Photovoltaic Systems for Village Energy Supply

After several years of experimentation and demonstration, photovoltaic (PV) power is now firmly established for certain applications where reliable power is required in remote locations. The technology has recently matured to the point where PV is now an appropriate, cost-effective technology for village use. This paper reviews experience and presents economic comparisons between photovoltaic and conventional power systems. It is concluded that PV is cost-effective for individual home lighting and small loads such as radios, when compared with kerosene lamps and batteries. For mutiple uses PV is cost-effective compared with diesel generators for daily electricity demands up to around 20 kWh, depending on local conditions.     

Fuelwood Prices in India: Policy Implications

The price of fuelwood has been increasing at a rate higher than that of the consumer price index in most of the major urban centres of India. Today, in terms of cost per unit of energy delivered, fuelwood is more than twice as expensive as kerosene for cooking. This has immense public policy implications. A number of complementary policy interventions are needed so that forests can be saved and the stability of energy supplies can be achieved in developing countries.     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.