GCM-based analysis of water availability along the Tone River and Tokyo Metropolitan Area under climatic changes

Tone River supplies most of the water requirements of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA). Lowering of Tone flow and yearly fluctuation, however, is causing water shortage along TMA nowadays. This study investigated the future water availability scenarios under climatic changes. A state-of-the-art approach to utilize the output of several GCM has been demonstrated to investigate the future water availability scenarios for TMA from the Tone River. An integrated modeling approach for water balance considering several hydrological risk indices was adopted to quantify the future changes in this case. It is observed that the future summer precipitation along the Tone basin is going to be increased considerably, while an almost constant or decreasing trend is observed for winter season. Natural flow availability for winter or spring seasons thus can be crucial under future scenarios. After reservoir routing, the hydrological risk indices estimated, however, were not found to be changed significantly due to the presence of a robust reservoir system at the upstream.     

The use of ecological scales for indication of the current state of forest communities

A method for estimating the current state of plant communities based on the ecological amplitudes of constituent species is proposed. An original program, Fitoindikatsiya, has been developed to compute the indices of disturbance and homogeneity of plant communities from species ecological scale values. The current state of pine forests in the part of Novosibirsk oblast east of the Ob River has been analyzed; slightly, moderately, and severely disturbed zones have been distinguished.     

SUSTAINABILITY AT THE LOCAL LEVEL: MANAGEMENT TOOLS AND MUNICIPAL TAX INCENTIVE MODEL

The implementation of sustainable development may seem a simple concept when written on paper. However to carry-out long term actions put forward by the Agenda 21 (AG21) at the local level represents one of the main challenges as municipal governments in general do not have the capacity to effectively implement the process. Regional environmental assessment (REA) has shown to be effective in supporting decision-making not only to correct environmental problems due to past unsustainable social-economic developments but also help local governments to implement sustainable actions. However this requires long-term investments of AG21 plans and projects. The allocation of regular and consistent financial resources is one of the main ingredients for the sustainable development process. But traditional plans and projects financed by national and/or international funds may not be sustainable in the long-term because they become dependent on external funding. Research demonstrate that innovative economic instruments such as ecotaxes represent a feasible alternative to sponsor local sustainability because taxes are collected permanently by the government and could be invested in continuous actions. Ecotaxes experiences have provided important reference to structure a municipal incentive model (MIM) to sponsor AG21’s environmental plans and projects on a long-term (permanent) basis. However sustainable development cannot be solely through economic investments. A comprehensive municipal environmental management scheme (MEMS) has been established to support the incentive model. The scheme seeks not only to improve local institutional framework but also incentive continuous participation of local stakeholders at all levels of society. Participatory events and the provision of incentives (educational and financial) are key to motivate society to protect the environment and support actively the sustainable development process as emphasised in the RIO-92 Conference.     

Community evacuation following a chlorine release, Mississippi

On 7th September 1986, four miles north of Collins, Mississippi, a train transporting chlorine derailed. Two cars ruptured and gas escaped. As a result, 100 families were evacuated. To study the evacuation process, we conducted person-to-person interviews with sixty-two families staying in the evacuation center. Only 52.5% of the families received their first directive to evacuate directly from police or other officials. Delays in evacuating tended to be shorter when people were warned by the police and were told the reason for evacuating. Lack of personal transportation and preexisting health problems resulted in delays in evacuation. Concerns about evacuation included fear of looting, lack of a place to go, lack of transportation, difficulty in moving with children and elderly persons, and the need to take care of pets. One third of the interviewees reported feeling panic. Community evacuation procedures would be improved if: (1) officials contact all households directly; (2) the warning message addresses people's concerns; and (3) transportation is provided.