Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

Pluri-annual study of the reproduction of two Mediterranean Oscarella species (Porifera, Homoscleromorpha): cycle, sex-ratio, reproductive effort and phenology

This study presents the phenology of two common Mediterranean sponges belonging to the genus Oscarella (Porifera, Homoscleromorpha). Oscarella tuberculata and Oscarella lobularis are two sibling species, dwellers of shallow benthic communities which tend to have distinct ecological behavior, respectively, euryecious and rather stenoecious. The comparative study of their reproductive cycle showed that both Oscarella species have a seasonal reproductive cycle with a successive phase duration differing from one species to another. In both species, there is a continuous oogenesis, with new oocytes appearing in spring, whereas the spermatogenesis generally starts later with the early warming of the sea. The embryonic development and the larval release are restricted to the warmest months of the year. We also observed a shift in the period of gametogenesis and larval emission depending on species and differences in their sensitivity to changes in thermal regime. It appears that an increase in seawater temperature can affect sex determination, with mainly a shift toward males in both species. Their reproductive efforts are variable in time, and can be in some cases influenced by the temperature regime. This is especially the case of O. lobularis which seems to be the most thermosensitive, its phenology responding significantly to changes in thermal regime, whereas O. tuberculata seems to be less sensitive and/or reactive. By detecting phenological changes among sponges, this study demonstrated the relevance of such monitoring to assess the possible biological response to climate change.     

Effects of Roadway Crossings on Leaf Litter Processing and Invertebrate Assemblages in Small Streams

The effects of the Maine Turnpike (Interstate 95) on leaf litter processing were examined in five first- and second-order coastal plain streams in southern Maine, U.S.A. Invertebrate assemblages and red maple leaf softening and loss rates were compared at 53 stations arrayed upstream and downstream of the turnpike. Litter softening rate was not affected by the roadway. Litter loss rate was significantly faster at downstream stations (-0.0024 degree-day(-1)) than at upstream stations or at stations nearest the roadway, which were not different from each other (-0.0022 degree-day(-1)). Litter softening and loss rates were more strongly related to physical and chemical habitat variables than to shredder assemblage characteristics. Significant among-stream differences were observed in most community structural metrics and in biomass of important shredder taxa, but effects of the roadway were rarely consistent among streams. This is attributed in part to habitat variation, which was greater among streams than within streams. This study suggests that while the presence of the Maine Turnpike may influence stream water quality and habitat structure, the relatively subtle effects of roadway runoff and associated habitat modifications on stream ecosystem processes are masked by within- and among-stream variability in litter processing and leaf pack invertebrate assemblage structure.     

Potential and Shortcomings of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Providing Meteorological Data for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting

The last decade progress in numericalweather prediction (NWP) modelling and studies of urbanatmospheric processes for providing meteorological data forurban air pollution forecasting is analysed on examples ofseveral European meteorological centres. Modern nested NWP models are utilising land-use databasesdown to 1 km resolution or finer, and are approaching thenecessary horizontal and vertical resolution suitable forcity scale. The recent scientific developments in the fieldof urban atmospheric physics and the growing availabilityof high-resolution urban surface characteristics datapromise further improvements of the capability of NWPmodels for this aim. A strategy to improve NWP data forthe urban air pollution forecasting is suggested.     

Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demand in New Mexico: a travel cost study

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hikers' and mountain bikers' demand functions react adversely to prescribed burning. Net benefits for both groups fall as areas recover from prescribed burns. Because both visitation and annual recreation benefits decrease to these two types of visitors, this gives rise to multiple use costs associated with prescribed burning. With respect to wildfire, hikers and mountain bikers both exhibit decreased visitation as areas recover from wildfires, however, only hikers indicate an increase in per trip net benefits. Bikers' demand effectively drops to zero. These results differ from previous findings in the literature and have implications for efficient implementation of the National Fire Plan and whether prescribed burning is a cost effective tool for multiple use management of National Forests. Specifically, that fire and recreation managers cannot expect recreation users to react similarly to fire across recreation activities, or different geographic regions. What is cost effective in one region may not be so in another.     

Genotoxicity is unrelated to total concentration of priority carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils undergoing biological treatment

A solid-phase microbiological assay was used to determine the changes in genotoxicity associated with sequestration or biodegradation of carcinogenic compounds in contaminated soils. The concentration of six carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) did not change in 59 d in sterile soil, but the genotoxicity declined markedly. In a soil undergoing bioremediation in the field for 147 d or biodegradation in the laboratory for 180 d, the concentrations either changed little or declined at different rates, but the genotoxicity increased followed by a decline. The genotoxicity of a second soil declined as a result of biological treatment. The data show that genotoxicity of contaminated soils may be unrelated to the concentration of carcinogenic PAHs because of aging or new mutagens formed during biological treatment.     

Estimating the aquatic emissions and fate of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) into the river Rhine

The sources, distribution, levels and sinks of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) estimated to be released from areas of high population density, have been explored using the river Rhine as a case study. A comparison between modelled and measured data is presented, along with analysis of the importance of PFOS sorption in riverine systems. PFOS releases into the Rhine were estimated to be 325-690 kg/yr based on per capita emission rates of 27-57 μg day(-1) from a population of 33 million living within a 50 km zone either side of the river. Sorption of PFOS to suspended particles and sediments may alter its fate in the aquatic environment. Therefore available measured and modelled partitioning data was assessed, and K(d) values (sorption coefficient) of 7.5 and 20 were selected. This resulted in sediment-water ratios of 23-76 : 1, which are similar to ratios reported in the literature, and resulted in modelled estimates that <20% of the total PFOS entering the Rhine binds to sediments or suspended particles. The calculated discharge from the Rhine to the North Sea based on measured data was 420-2200 kg/yr; our model predictions are in good agreement with these estimates. Emission trends were accurately predicted, suggesting population density can be effectively used as a surrogate for diffuse PFOS emissions from product use, while predicted concentrations were a factor of 2-4 below measured data showing the importance of other sources. Transfer of PFOS to sediment is estimated to be minimal, and consequently discharges to the North Sea are roughly equal to PFOS releases to river water.     

Migration of aluminum from food contact materials to food—a health risk for consumers? Part III of III: migration of aluminum to food from camping dishes and utensils made of aluminum

Background

When cooking on a barbecue grill, consumers often use aluminum grill pans. For one, the pan catches the fats and oils that would drip into the embers causing the formation of potentially noxious smoke, and the pan also protects the food from being burned by direct heat from the coals. In addition, new aluminum products for use in ovens and grills are becoming increasingly popular. Due to their light weight and excellent heat transfer camping, utensils made of aluminum are, for example, often used by fishermen and mountain climbers. Preparing food in aluminum utensils can, however, result in migration of the aluminum to the foodstuffs.

Results/Conclusions

In this study presented here, it was found that the transfer limit of 5.00 mg/L for aluminum is not exceeded using simulants for oil or for tap water; however, with an aqueous solution of 0.5% citric acid, the limit is clearly exceeded at 638 mg/L. This means that the Tolerable Weekly Intake (TWI) is exceeded by 298% for a child weighing 15 kg and for an adult weighing 70 kg it is equivalent to 63.8% of the TWI, assuming a daily uptake of 10 mL marinade containing lemon juice over a period of 1 week. Preparation of a fish dish with a marinade containing lemon juice in camping dishes would result in the TWI being exceeded by 871% for a child weighing 15 kg and by 187% for an adult weighing 70 kg assuming a daily uptake of 250 g over a period of 1 week.

     

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.