Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Assessment of total urban metabolism and metabolic inefficiency in an Irish city-region

This paper aims to measure product and waste flows in an Irish city-region using the principles of metabolism and mass balance. An empirical indicator to measure resource efficiency, using a ratio of waste disposal as a function of product consumption, was developed and it was found that total materials metabolic inefficiency fell by 31% from 0.13 in 1996 to 0.09 in 2002. The paper concludes by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of this indicator and its potential application in the field of sustainable consumption and resource efficiency as well as making suggestions to improve and strengthen the indicator.     

A Novel Method to Capture and Analyze Flow in a Gross Pollutant Trap Using Image-Based Vector Visualization

A novel method is developed to capture and analyze several experimental flow regimes through a gross pollutant trap (GPT) with fully and partially blocked screens. Typical flow conditions and screen blockages are based on findings from field investigations that show a high content of organic matter in urban areas. Fluid motion of neutral buoyant particles is tracked using a high-speed camera and particle image velocimetry (PIV) software. The recorded fluid motion is visualized through an image-based, line integral convolution (LIC) algorithm, generally suitable for large computational fluid dynamics (CFD) datasets. The LIC method, a dense representation of streamlines, is found to be superior to the point-based flow visualization (e.g., hedgehog or arrow plots) in highlighting main flow features that are important for understanding litter capture and retention in the GPT. Detailed comparisons are made between the flow regimes, and the results are compared with CFD data previously obtained for fully blocked screens. The LIC technique is a useful tool for identifying flow structures in the GPT and areas that are subjected to abnormalities difficult to detect by conventional methods. The novel method is found to be useful both in the laboratory and in the field, with little preparation and cost. The enhancements and pitfalls of the LIC technique along with the experimentally captured flow field are presented and discussed.     

A note on the effectiveness of the house-arrest alternative for motivating DWI offenders to install ignition interlocks

Introduction

The effectiveness of ignition interlocks at reducing drunk driving has been limited by the ability of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders to avoid court orders to install the devices.

Methods

In a pilot program in New Mexico, four Santa Fe County judges imposed home confinement (via electronic monitoring bracelets) on offenders who claimed to have no car or no intention to drive. Interlock installation rates for Santa Fe County were compared with all other counties in New Mexico over a 2-year program and 2-year post-program period.

Results

During the two program years, 70% of the drivers convicted of DWI in Santa Fe County installed interlocks, compared to only 17% in the other counties, but when the program was terminated, the Santa Fe installation rate fell by 18.8 percentage points.

Summary

Mandating the alternative sanction of house arrest led to the highest reported interlock installation rate for DWI offenders.

Impact on Industry

Impaired driving is a substantial expense to employers, particularly when it bars driving that interferes with employment. Interlocks provide a method of protecting the public while permitting the offender to drive sober. This study was directed at increasing interlock use by DWI offenders.     

Effects of environmental illiteracy and environmental awareness among middle school students on environmental behavior

This study proposes and employs a structural model to examine the effects of environmental literacy, environmental awareness, environmental attitudes, and environmental behavior among middle school students in Eski?ehir on their purchase of environmentally friendly products. In the proposed structural model, environmental illiteracy and environmental awareness were the exogenous latent variables, while pro-environmental attitude, pro-environmental behavior, and the purchase of environmentally friendly products were the endogenous latent variables. The latent variable of environmental illiteracy did not have a statistically significant effect on environmental attitudes and purchase of environmentally friendly products, whereas environmental awareness had a positive effect on pro-environmental attitudes and the purchase of environmentally friendly products. These findings indicate that students with environmental awareness also develop positive attitudes toward the environment, and the presence of a positive attitude toward the environment leads them to display pro-environmental behaviors and adopt a positive attitude toward environmentally friendly products.     

Investigating soils retention ratios and modelling geochemical factors affecting heavy metals retention in soils in a tropical urban watershed

This study aimed at investigating the retention of Pb and Cd in soils and the geochemical factors influencing the adsorption of these pollutants. Soil samples were air-dried and ground to pass through a 2-mm sieve, and different soil extracts were prepared for chemical analysis (organic matter, cation exchange capacity and pH). Total Pb and Cd were extracted with diacid using digestion method and determined by atomic adsorption spectrophotometer (AAS) after filtration. Results revealed that the heavy metals retention ratio (RR) of the Rhodic ferralsol, Xanthic ferralsol and Mollic gleysol (2) were very high for Cd (>80 %) and was relatively low (generally < 60 %) for Pb. In contrast, RRs for the Plinthic gleysol and the Mollic gleysol (1) were relatively low (<60 %), regardless of the heavy metal concerned. Multiple regression equations indicated for Pb and Cd concentrations different linear relationships over simple linear regression, when pH, organic matter, clay percentage and cation exchange capacity (CEC) were used as independent variables. Results indicate that organic matter exerts major influences on the retention of Pb and Cd in soils, while CEC, clay content and pH have a minor influence in this process in the Ntem watershed. From these observations, the application of soil organic matter could be a solution in protecting shallow aquifers from heavy metal pollution and thus insuring that they are not a hazard to public health.     

2014, The “year without a summer” in Italy: news media coverage and implications for the climate change debate

In 2014, there was virtually no summer in northern and central-southern Italy. Storm after storm battered the peninsula, triggering floods and landslides from Veneto to Puglia. We studied the coverage of “the year without a summer” in Italy by analyzing the content of 171 news articles from two influential online newspapers. Our software-based analysis enabled us to observe that the two newspapers hardly ever mentioned climate change in their coverage of the weather anomaly that affected Italy in the summer of 2014. This type of coverage is in line with climate science, according to which there is no evidence of a climate change-related influence on summer precipitation patterns in Southern Europe—whereas such influence has been documented for northern Europe. We compared our results with a recent paper, which documented that the same online dailies chose to represent the particularly hot summer of 2012 in Italy as a direct consequence of climate change. We corroborated this comparison also on the basis of a preliminary analysis we performed on the media coverage of the exceptionally hot and arid summer of 2015 in Italy.     

The impacts of the waterfront development in Iskandar Malaysia

The increasing number of waterfront projects shows that the concept of waterfront development has contributed to the advancement of the Malaysian construction industry. This study seeks to assess the impacts of the implementation of waterfront development in Iskandar Malaysia eliciting the perceived relative importance of these impacts. A comprehensive literature review has been conducted to collate the potential impacts of the waterfront development. A total of 363 sets of questionnaires were distributed to the contractors and developers registered under G7 category of the Construction Industry Development Board in Malaysia. Results show that the most significant influence of the waterfront development is related to economic benefits, while environmental impacts are not considered as a priority for this category of stakeholders. In addition, this study also indicates that the implementation of the waterfront projects has generated numerous job opportunities within the developed region. Moreover, exchanging knowledge in the planning and managing of the waterfront development is imperative to the development of the waterfront projects. Nevertheless, the shortcomings of these developments, such as the negative environmental impact on natural beaches and the coastline (i.e. pollution) as well as human-related issues (i.e. excessive human settlement), should not be taken lightly. This research confirms that the reclamation of land for waterfront development is closely correlated with the destruction of these natural structures.