Extending the environmental risk assessment for oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) under pandemic use conditions to the coastal marine compartment

In case of an avian-influenza-derived human flu pandemic, an inordinately high use of medicines over several weeks is predicted, in particular for the recommended influenza antiviral oseltamivir (Tamiflu). While the risk of oseltamivir to sewage works and freshwater bodies has already been assessed, the fact that a large percentage of the human population worldwide lives relatively close to the sea raises concern for its environmental compatibility in coastal marine waters. The potential risk of high oseltamivir use to the marine compartment is assessed in this publication, based on the 2003 European Community Technical Guidance Document (TGD) for risk assessment. Subchronic embryo–larval ecotoxicity tests with three marine invertebrates (Pomatoceros triqueter, Annelida; Mytilus edulis, Mollusca; Paracentrotus lividus, Echinodermata) and chronic growth inhibition tests with two different groups of marine microalgae (Isochrysis galbana, Haptophyta; Skeletonema costatum, Heterokontophyta) were performed with the active substance oseltamivir carboxylic acid to derive a dependable marine predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC). This was compared to a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) for oseltamivir in coastal waters, based on the worst-case freshwater PEC. The PEC/PNEC risk characterisation ratio for the marine compartment is well below 1, which in the terminology of the TGD signifies no immediate concern. Further, while oseltamivir may be persistent (P), it is not bioaccumulative (B) nor highly ecotoxic (T) and therefore not a PBT substance. In conclusion, even a high pandemic use of oseltamivir would not lead to a significant risk for the marine compartment, in confirmation of the risk assessment for sewage works and freshwaters.     

The potential of vehicle and road infrastructure interventions in fatal bicyclist accidents on Swedish roads—What can in-depth studies tell us?

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this article is to describe the characteristics of fatal crashes with bicyclists on Swedish roads in rural and urban areas and to investigate the potential of bicycle helmets and different vehicle and road infrastructure interventions to prevent them. The study has a comprehensive approach to provide road authorities and vehicle manufacturers with recommendations for future priorities.

Methods: The Swedish Transport Administration’s (STA) in-depth database of fatal crashes was used for case-by-case analysis of fatal cycling accidents (2006–2016) on rural (n?=?82) and urban (n?=?102) roads. The database consists of information from the police, medical journals, autopsy reports, accident analyses performed by STA, and witness statements. The potential of helmet use and various vehicle and road infrastructure safety interventions was determined retrospectively for each case by analyzing the chain of events leading to the fatality. The potential of vehicle safety countermeasures was analyzed based on prognoses on their implementation rates in the Swedish vehicle fleet.

Results: The most common accident scenario on rural roads was that the bicyclist was struck while cycling along the side of the road. On urban roads, the majority of accidents occurred in intersections. Most accidents involved a passenger car, but heavy trucks were also common, especially in urban areas. Most accidents occurred in daylight conditions (73%). Almost half (46%) of nonhelmeted bicyclists would have survived with a helmet. It was assessed that nearly 60% of the fatal accidents could be addressed by advanced vehicle safety technologies, especially autonomous emergency braking with the ability to detect bicyclists. With regard to interventions in the road infrastructure, separated paths for bicyclists and bicycle crossings with speed calming measures were found to have the greatest safety potential. Results indicated that 91% of fatally injured bicyclists could potentially be saved with known techniques. However, it will take a long time for such technologies to be widespread.

Conclusions: The majority of fatally injured bicyclists studied could potentially be saved with known techniques. A speedy implementation of important vehicle safety systems is recommended. A fast introduction of effective interventions in the road infrastructure is also necessary, preferably with a plan for prioritization.     

Examining adaptations to water stress among farming households in Sri Lanka’s dry zone

Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka. Whether these changes will undermine national-level food security depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Analyzing household survey data, this research identifies household, institutional, and agroecological factors that influence how water-stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Paralleling studies conducted elsewhere, we identified institutional factors as particularly relevant in farmer adaptation decisions. Notably, our research identified farmers’ use of hybrid seed varietals as the only local climate adaptation strategy to positively correlate with farmers’ rice yields. These findings provide insight into additional factors pertinent to successful agricultural adaptation and offer encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change-exacerbated drought.     

Trends in environmental education for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica

Costa Rica is internationally recognized for its abundant biodiversity and being a leader in the promotion of education strategies for biodiversity conservation. We interviewed staff from 16 institutions developing key environmental communication, education, and participation projects for biodiversity conservation in the country. Through content analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and Chi-square tests, we examined the characteristics of the projects carried out by these institutions and developed a typology of four categories derived from six variables: primary audience, content, project purpose, location, scale, and facility. Then, we designed a conceptual model describing the integration of conservation and economic development in the educational projects. We found two key approaches related to this integration: vision of nature protection which aims to inform audiences of ecological concepts and focuses on schoolchildren and vision of sustainability which engages adult audiences and is management-oriented. Education for community-based environmental management may serve as a good example of educational projects which integrate conservation and economic development, implementing a vision of sustainability.     

Transforming urban planning processes and outcomes through creative methods

Inclusively delivering the sustainable development goals (SDGs) remains challenging, particularly in urban areas, where some of the most pressing concerns exist. To achieve the transformative SDG agenda, new methods are required to overcome current deficits in engagement around inclusion and equitable outcomes. Evaluating against theories of governance and inclusion, we test a mixture of digital and physical creative methods abilities to deliver co-designed solutions that influence mobility and road safety planning outcomes in East African cities. Greater inclusion led to improved interactions of citizens with decision makers, and the identification of novel, practical solutions, delivering some elements of transformation. Risks include creative methods being used to co-opt communities to official agendas, and institutional planning norms needing to adapt to respond to a wider range of stakeholders. Overall, where risks are mitigated, we recommend that using Creative Methods could localise SDG delivery, ensuring more equitable and effective outcomes from infrastructure development investments.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01436-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Integrated assessment of future CAP policies: land use changes,spatial patterns and targeting

The recent and upcoming reforms of the Common Agricultural Policies (CAPs) aim at strengthening the multifunctional role of agriculture, acknowledging the differences in economic, environmental and social potentials within European regions. This paper presents results from an integrated assessment of existing and future policies within the framework set up in the FP6 EU project MEA-Scope. Spatial explicit procedures allow for the MEA-Scope modelling tools to provide information related to regional, environmental and socio-economics settings. The impact of different policy scenarios on structural change, land abandonment and cropping pattern of typical farms has been assessed based on linked agent-based (ABM) and Linear Programming (LP) models at regional and farm scale for two study areas. For the German case study area Ostprignitz-Ruppin (OPR), the issue of policy targeting has been addressed by relating non-commodity outputs (NCOs) to soil quality and protection status. For the Italian case study area (Mugello), changes in landscape patterns in terms of increased fragmentation or homogeneity as affected by changes in agricultural intensity have been analysed using semivariance analysis. The spatial explicit approach highlighted the relevance of case study research in order to identifying response structures and explaining policy implementation patterns.     

On-road and simulated driving: concurrent and discriminant validation

Introduction

A converging pair of studies investigated the validity of a simulator for measuring driving performance/skill.

Study 1

A concurrent validity study compared novice driver performance during an on-road driving test with their performance on a comparable simulated driving test.

Results

Results showed a reasonable degree of concordance in terms of the distribution of driving errors on-road and errors on the simulator. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between the two when driver performance was rank ordered according to errors, further establishing the relative validity of the simulator. However, specific driving errors on the two tasks were not closely related suggesting that absolute validity could not be established and that overall performance is needed to establish the level of skill.

Study 2

A discriminant validity study compared driving performance on the simulator across three groups of drivers who differ in their level of experience - a group of true beginners who had no driving experience, a group of novice drivers who had completed driver education and had a learner's permit, and a group of fully licensed, experienced drivers.

Results

The findings showed significant differences among the groups in the expected direction -- the various measures of driving errors showed that beginners performed worse than novice drivers and that experienced drivers had the fewest errors. Collectively, the results of the concurrent and discriminant validity studies support the use of the simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes.

Impact on industry

These findings support the use of a driving simulator as a valid measure of driving performance for research purposes. Future research should continue to examine validity between on-road driving performance and performance on a driving simulator and the use of simulated driving tests in the evaluation of driver education/training programs.     

Prenatal diagnosis for huntington's disease: A molecular and psychological study

Two linked probes were used to determine the Huntington's disease status of the fetus conceived by a woman affected with the condition. The fetus was found to be unaffected with a certainty of 97 per cent. The ethical issues associated with presymptomatic testing were avoided since the mother presented with initial symptoms of Huntington's disease, but other psychological and ethical issues arose. The concerns of an affected woman planning a pregnancy, and the dilemmas involved in decision-making regarding prenatal diagnosis and possible selective abortion were exposed and explored with the patient and her husband.     

Chemical techniques for assessing bioavailability of sediment-associated contaminants: SPME versus Tenax extraction

The traditional approach for predicting the risk of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) in sediment is to relate organic carbon normalized sediment concentrations to body residues or toxic effects to organisms. However, due to the multiple variables controlling bioavailability, this method has limitations. A matrix independent method of predicting bioavailability needs to be used in order to be universally applicable. Both chemical activity (freely dissolved chemical concentrations) measured by solid-phase microextraction (SPME) and bioaccessibility (rapidly desorbing fraction) estimated by Tenax extraction have been developed to predict bioavailability of sediment-associated HOCs. The objectives of this review are to summarize a number of studies using matrix-SPME or Tenax extraction to estimate bioavailability and/or toxicity of different classes of HOCs and evaluate the strengths and weakness of these two techniques. Although the two chemical techniques assess different components of the matrix, estimates obtained from both techniques have been correlated to organism body residues. The advantages of SPME fibers are their applicability for use in situ and their potential usage for a wide array of contaminants by selection of appropriate coatings. Single time-point Tenax extraction, however, is more time- and labor-effective. Tenax extraction also has lower detection limits, making it more applicable for highly toxic contaminants. This review also calls for additional research to evaluate the role of sequestrated contaminants and ingestion of sediment particles by organisms on HOC bioavailability. The use of performance reference compounds to reduce SPME sampling time and linking chemical based bioavailability estimates to toxicological endpoints are essential to expand the applications of these methods.     

Constancy and change in marine predator diets across a shift in oceanographic conditions in the Northern California Current

Variable ocean conditions can greatly impact prey assemblages and predator foraging in marine ecosystems. Our goal was to better understand how a change in ocean conditions influenced dietary niche overlap among a suite of midtrophic-level predators. We examined the diets of three fishes and one seabird off central Oregon during two boreal summer upwelling periods with contrasting El Niño (2010) and La Niña (2011) conditions. We found greater niche specialization during El Niño and increased niche overlap during La Niña in both the nekton and micronekton diet components, especially in the larger, more offshore predators. However, only the two smaller, more nearshore predators exhibited interannual variation in diet composition. Concurrent trawl surveys confirmed that changes in components of predator diets reflected changes in the prey community. Using multiple predators across diverse taxa and life histories provided a comprehensive understanding of food-web dynamics during changing ocean conditions.