Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium

The cumulative availability curve shows the quantities of a mineral commodity that can be recovered under current conditions from existing resources at various prices. The future availability of a mineral commodity depends on the shape of its cumulative availability curve (determined by geologic considerations, such as the nature and incidence of the available mineral deposits), the speed at which society moves up the curve (determined by future demand and the extent to which this demand is satisfied by recycling), and shifts in the curve (determined by cost-reducing technological change and other factors). While the shape of the curve for any given mineral commodity may or may not be known, it is knowable since the geologic processes responsible for the curve's shape took place many years ago. In contrast, the factors governing how fast society moves up the curve and how the curve shifts over time are not only unknown but also unknowable.Using lithium as an example, this article shows that knowledge about the shape of the cumulative availability curve can by itself provide useful insights for some mineral commodities regarding the potential future threat of shortages due to depletion. Despite the inherent uncertainties surrounding the future growth in lithium demand as well as the uncertainties regarding the future cost-reducing effects of new production technologies, the shape of the lithium cumulative availability curve indicates that depletion is not likely to pose a serious problem over the rest of this century and well beyond.     

Detached breakwaters’ effects on a microtidal Mediterranean Coast, case of the Hammam-Lif littoral (North-East of Tunisia)

The Hammam Lif shoreline, which is part of the Gulf of Tunis (North-East of Tunisia), suffered from a dramatic erosion event during a storm in 1981. Therefore, eight successive and detached breakwaters were built to protect it. The effect of these protection works on the evolution of this coastline is assessed using aerial photographs geo-referenced by digital photogrammetric methods. Results show that a general accretion has developed behind the detached breakwaters, with the formation of seven tombolos and one salient. The response of the coastline depends on the characteristics of the protective works (length, distance to coast, and spacing). Detached breakwaters which are short, far from the coastline and distant from each other, give rise to very small tombolos or salients. On the other hand, longer breakwaters which are near the coastline and closely spaced, give rise to more developed tombolos, showing that these structures are the most efficient.     

Spatial Patterns of Land Use Changes Across a Mediterranean Metropolitan Landscape: Implications for Biodiversity Management

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is an acknowledged cause of the current biodiversity crisis, but the link between LUCC and biodiversity conservation remains largely unknown at the regional scale, especially due to the traditional lack of consistent biodiversity data. We provide a methodological approach for assessing this link through defining a set of major pressures on biodiversity from LUCC and evaluating their extent, distribution, and association with a set of physical factors. The study was performed in the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (MRB, NE of Spain) between 1956 and 2000. We generated a LUCC map for the time period, which was reclassified into a set of pressures on biodiversity (forestation, deforestation, crop abandonment, and urbanization). We then explored the association of these pressures with a set of physical factors using redundancy analysis (RDA). Pressures encompassed 38.8 % of the MRB area. Urbanization and forestation were the dominating pressures, followed by crop abandonment and deforestation. RDA showed a significant distribution gradient of these pressures in relation to the studied physical factors: while forestation and deforestation are concentrated in remote mountain areas, urbanization mainly occurs in lowlands and especially on the coast, and close to previous urban centers and roads. Unchanged areas are concentrated in rainy and relatively remote mountain areas. Results also showed a dramatic loss of open habitats and of the traditional land use gradient, both featuring Mediterranean landscapes and extremely important for their biodiversity conservation. Implications of these results for biodiversity management are finally discussed.     

The impact of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on industrial facilities

This study describes the results of a field trip to the area affected by the 12 May, 2008, Wenchuan earthquake to analyse its impact on industrial facilities. The damage severity correlates well with the age of the plant, with older facilities having suffered more extensive and severe damage than those built more recently according to the latest design codes. The main cause of worker death and injury was the collapse of warehouses, office and manufacturing buildings. This concerned mostly concrete structures with insufficient confinement or poor reinforcement. The falling debris resulted in equipment damage and loss, as well as pipe severing and crushing. Pipes were also severed or bent when connected tanks were displaced or buildings collapsed. Numerous hazardous-materials releases occurred with spills being the dominant accident scenario. In some sites soil–liquefaction induced damage was evident, highlighting the need to consider potential site effects when selecting the location for a facility. The impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on chemical facilities confirms the findings from other earthquakes in terms of typical Natech damage and failure modes, as well as of hazardous-materials release potential and mechanisms.     

An approach for determining air pollution monitoring sites

EC Directive 2008/50/CE on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe specifies the obligations of Member States regarding fixed measurements of atmospheric pollutants in areas where maximum concentration levels exceed the lower assessment threshold. However, indications as to the siting of atmospheric monitoring stations are less precise and sometimes confusing. Campaigns to measure benzene and other volatile organic compounds in Murcia in 2007 and 2008 revealed that the areas where measurements coincided with the mean concentration for the whole city were always practically the same. Consequently, we propose a method for siting atmospheric monitoring stations in cities for which emission sources remain steady throughout the year, as is the case for cities in most southern European countries, where the most important emission source is traffic. The method is particularly useful for towns in which only one fixed measuring point is compulsory and should help local authorities in making correct decisions in this context.     

Time-Consistent Equilibria in Common Access Resource Games with Asymmetric Players Under Partial Cooperation

Given a differential game, if agents have different time preference rates, cooperative (Pareto optimum) solutions obtained by applying Pontryagin’s maximum principle become time inconsistent. We derive a set of dynamic programming equations in continuous time whose solutions are time-consistent equilibria for problems in which agents differ in their utility functions and also in their time preference rates. The solution assumes cooperation between agents at every time. Since coalitions at different times have different time preferences, equilibrium policies are calculated by looking for Markov (subgame perfect) equilibria in a (noncooperative) sequential game. The results are applied to the study of a cake-eating problem describing the management of a common property exhaustible natural resource. The extension of the results to a simple common property renewable natural resource model in infinite horizon is also discussed.     

Population structure and connectivity of the European conger eel (Conger conger) across the north-eastern Atlantic and western Mediterranean: integrating molecular and otolith elemental approaches

Genetic variation (mtDNA) of the European conger eel, Conger conger, was compared across five locations in the north-eastern Atlantic (Madeira, Azores, South Portugal, North Portugal and Ireland) and one location in the western Mediterranean (Mallorca). Genetic diversity of conger eel was high, and differentiation among regions was not significant. Additionally, comparisons of element:Ca ratios (Sr:Ca, Ba:Ca, Mn:Ca and Mg:Ca) in otolith cores (larval phase) and edges (3?months prior to capture) among the Azores, North Portugal, Madeira and Mallorca regions for 2?years indicated that variation among regions were greater for edges than cores. Therefore, while benthic conger may display residency at regional scales, recruitment may not necessarily be derived from local spawning and larval retention. Furthermore, data from otoliths suggest a separated replenishment source for western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic stocks. The combination of genetics and otolith chemistry suggests?a population model for conger eel involving a broad-scale dispersal of larvae, with limited connectivity for benthic juvenile life stages at large spatial scales, although the existence of one or multiple spawning grounds for the species remains uncertain.     

A Study of How Experts and Non-Experts Make Decisions on Releasing Genetically Modified Plants

The introduction of genetically modified plants into the environment has been marked by different positions, either in favor of or against their release. However, the problem goes well beyond such contradictory positions; it is necessary to take into account the legislation, ethics, biosafety, and the environment in the considerations related to the release of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). To this end, the Brazilian Committee of Biosafety (CTNBio), a consultative and deliberative multidisciplinary collegiate, provides technical and advisory support to the Brazilian Federal Government. This committee consists of scientists and non-scientists who participate in evaluating the dossiers of companies that are requesting approval by the Brazilian Government; consequently, the aim of this study was to investigate whether commercial approvals of GMOs were associated with the profile of the CTNBio members. Research was based on the minutes taken at CTNBio meetings carried out from 2006 up to 2009, considering law 11.105/2005 and the Constitution of 1988 as legal frameworks, to determine the number of voters in favor of or against releasing genetically modified Bt-maize, Bt-cotton, and herbicide resistant soybeans to be used in Brazilian agriculture. Via the internet, we had access to the curriculum vitae of the CTNBio members through the Plataforma Lattes database of the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), where we found their area of expertise. CTNBio members were divided into expert-for, expert-against, non-expert-for, and non-expert-against. Results showed that CTNBio decisions could be based on technical criteria as well as on the policy of the institution that expert-members were representing.