A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

Population biology and life strategies of Chlorophthalmus agassizii Bonaparte, 1840 (Pisces: Osteichthyes) in the Mediterranean Sea

The population biology and life strategies of Chlorophthalmus agassizii were studied in the Ionian Sea (eastern–central Mediterranean) using the data collected during the experimental trawl surveys carried out from 1995 to 2000. Depth-related trends of both density and size were found. With depth the former decreased while the latter increased. A typical bigger–deeper phenomenon was detected: young-of-the-year individuals occur on the shelf during autumn–winter months and move towards bathyal bottoms as they grow. The sampled population was made up of several size–age groups. The maximum age of 8 years was identified by means of otolith readings. The Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were estimated from the age–length key (L _∞=189.04±5.401 mm; k=0.24±0.021; t _o=−1.20±0.132; φ′=3.94) and modal progression analysis (L _∞=218.33±18.397 mm; k=0.164±0.028; t _o=−1.694±0.171; φ′=3.89). Reproduction of this monoecious fish was observed during summer–early autumn. Considering the female portion of the gonad, the size at attainment of 50% maturity was 115 mm TL. The corresponding age is within the third year of life. The simultaneous occurrence of oocytes in different development stages was shown in the ovary. Both the asynchronous ovary and oocyte size distribution indicate that C. agassizii spawns more than once during a reproductive season (batch spawner). Functional fecundity (on average 3,018 hydrated oocytes) was between 37 and 69% of the absolute fecundity and increased significantly with the individual size. Since adult specimens are mostly distributed on the slope, eggs and larvae develop in epipelagic waters and migrate in-shore where juvenile forms recruit on the shelf. Juveniles migrate ontogenetically towards deeper bottoms and after 2–3 years start to reproduce annually within a life span greater than 10 years.     

Eggs of cabbage root fly stimulate conspecific oviposition: Evaluation of the activity and determination of an egg-associated compound

Summary. Previous studies indicated the presence of antennally-active compounds in extracts of eggs laid by female cabbage root flies, Delia radicum, that stimulated oviposition by conspecific females. We confirmed that previously laid D. radicum eggs stimulated oviposition by other D. radicum females, in a dose-dependent manner. Methanol extracts of conspecific eggs stimulated oviposition by females D. radicum, whereas egg extracts of D. antiqua and Psila rosae had no effect. Electrophysiological recordings from the tarsal sensilla of D. radicum females indicated that neurones of the C₅ sensillum responded to the egg extracts from both D. radicum and D. antiqua, but not P. rosae. Chemical analysis revealed that the extract of eggs from D. radicum contained the thia-triaza-fluorene compound, 1,2-dihydro-3-thia-4,10,10b-triaza-cyclopenta[.a.]fluorene-1-carboxylic acid (CIF-1), an oviposition stimulant found previously only in cruciferous plants. Another potentially active component has yet to be identified.     

Contrasting home-range size and spatial partitioning in cryptic and sympatric pipistrelle bats

The extent of spatial partitioning in insectivorous bats, whose prey is patchily distributed and transient in nature, remains a contentious issue. The recent separation of a common Palaearctic bat, the pipistrelle, into Pipistrellus pipistrellus and Pipistrellus pygmaeus, which are morphologically similar and sympatric, provides an opportunity to examine this question. The present study used radio telemetry to address the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of P. pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus in northeast Scotland, to test the hypothesis that coexistence between these species is facilitated through spatial segregation. We reveal large and significant differences in the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of these two cryptic species. Individual P. pipistrellus home ranges were on average three times as large as that of P. pygmaeus, and they foraged for approximately an hour longer each night. Inter-specific spatial overlap was minimal (<5%) and core foraging areas of either species were essentially mutually exclusive despite the proximity of the two roosts. Inter-specific differences in range size were associated with the spatial dispersion of productive foraging sites within individual foraging ranges. P. pipistrellus foraging sites were highly dispersed, necessitating larger ranges. It is predicted that the spatial segregation revealed by the present study is a result of selection favouring the avoidance of competition in these species through differential habitat use.     

Contrasting structure and composition of the understory in species-rich tropical rain forests

In large samples of trees > or = 1 cm dbh (more than 1 million trees and 3000 species), in six lowland tropical forests on three continents, we assigned species with >30 individuals to one of six classes of stature at maturity (SAM). We then compared the proportional representation of understory trees (1-2 cm dbh) among these classes. The understory of the three Asian sites was predominantly composed of the saplings of large-canopy trees whereas the African and American sites were more richly stocked with trees of the smaller SAM classes. Differences in class representation were related to taxonomic families that were present exclusively in one continent or another. Families found in the Asian plots but not in the American plot (e.g., Dipterocarpaceae, Fagaceae) were predominantly species of the largest SAM classes, whereas families exclusive to the American plots (e.g., Melastomataceae sensu stricto, Piperaceae, and Malvaceae [Bombacacoidea]) were predominantly species of small classes. The African plot was similar to Asia in the absence of those American families rich in understory species, while similar to America in lacking the Asian families rich in canopy species. The numerous understory species of Africa were chiefly derived from families shared with Asia and/or America. The ratio of saplings (1-2 cm dbh) to conspecific canopy trees (>40 cm dbh) was lower in American plots than in the Asian plots. Possible explanations for these differences include phenology, moisture and soil fertility regimes, phyletic constraints, and the role of early successional plants in forest development. These results demonstrate that tropical forests that appear similar in tree number, basal area, and the family taxonomy of canopy trees nonetheless differ in ecological structure in ways that may impact the ecology of pollinators, dispersers, and herbivores and might reflect fundamental differences in canopy tree regeneration.     

Riparian shading and groundwater enhance growth potential for smallmouth bass in Ozark streams.

Moderation of stream temperatures by riparian shading and groundwater are known to promote growth and survival of salmonid fishes, but effects of riparian shade and groundwater on to be growth of warmwater stream fishes are poorly understood or assumed to be negligible. We used stream temperature models to relate shading from riparian vegetation and groundwater inflow to summer water temperatures in Missouri Ozark streams and evaluated effects of summer water temperatures on smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu, growth using a bioenergetics model. Bioenergetics model simulations revealed that adult smallmouth bass in non-spring-fed streams have lower growth potential during summer than fish in spring-fed streams, are subject to mass loss when stream temperatures exceed 27 degrees C, and will likely exhibit greater interannual variation in growth during summer if all growth-influencing factors, other than temperature, are identical between the two stream types. Temperature models indicated that increased riparian shading will expand the longitudinal extent of thermal habitat capable of supporting adult smallmouth bass growth in spring-fed stream reaches when mean daily air temperatures exceed 27 degrees C. Optimum growth temperature (22 degrees C) will be present only in spring-fed streams under these conditions. Potential for increasing shade through riparian restoration is greatest for streams <5 m wide and along north-south reaches of larger streams. However, temperature models also indicated that restoring riparian shading to maximum levels throughout a watershed would increase the total stream mileage capable of supporting positive growth of adult smallmouth bass by only 1-6% when air temperatures are at or near average summer maxima; increases in suitable thermal habitat would be greatest in watersheds with higher spring densities. Riparian management for maintenance or restoration of the thermal habitat of adult smallmouth bass during summer should be focused in areas strongly influenced by groundwater. Restoring riparian shading along spring-fed warmwater streams will likely benefit adult smallmouth bass growth and may ultimately influence population sizes.     

Human impacts, plant invasion, and imperiled plant species in California.

Invasive species are one of the fastest growing conservation problems. These species homogenize the world's flora and fauna, threaten rare and endemic species, and impose large economic costs. Here, we examine the distribution of 834 of the more than 1000 exotic plant taxa that have become established in California, USA. Total species richness increases with net primary productivity; however, the exotic flora is richest in low-lying coastal sites that harbor large numbers of imperiled species, while native diversity is highest in areas with high mean elevation. Weedy and invasive exotics are more tightly linked to the distribution of imperiled species than the overall pool of exotic species. Structural equation modeling suggests that while human activities, such as urbanization and agriculture, facilitate the initial invasion by exotic plants, exotics spread ahead of the front of human development into areas with high numbers of threatened native plants. The range sizes of exotic taxa are an order of magnitude smaller than for comparable native taxa. The current small range size of exotic species implies that California has a significant "invasion debt" that will be paid as exotic plants expand their range and spread throughout the state.     

Simulation of germination of pioneer species along an experimental drought gradient

The germination of ten plant species from the Iberian Peninsula was assessed along a water deficit gradient between -0. 1652 (moist) and -0.4988 MPa (dry) of osmotic potential, created by addition of increasing concentrations of polyethylene glycol (PEG 6000) to distilled water in which plants were grown hydroponically. The level and rate of germination of Daucus carota and Thapsia villosa significantly decreased with decreasing psi. Seeds of Dactylis glomerata and Dittrichia viscosa had positive germination responses to low osmotic potentials; germination of Epilobium hirsutum was not affected by osmotic potential. Germination of Medicago arabica, Cynosurus cristatus, Cistus ladanifer and Cistus albidus, was no favored by the addition of polyethylene glycol (PEG). Germination of Foeniculum vulgare and Thapsia villosa was inhibited by PEG.