Long-term prediction of traffic accident record from bus driver celeration behavior.

Driver celeration (speed change) behavior of bus drivers measured a number of times was used to predict their culpable accidents over increasing time periods. It was found that predictive power was considerable (>.30 correlation) over 5 years of time with aggregated celeration (mean of repeated measurements) as independent variables, and there were also indications that power reached even further, although too low Ns made these results unreliable. Similarly, there were indications of even stronger correlations with increased aggregation of celeration values. The results were discussed in terms of the methodology needed to bring out such results, and the stability of accident-causing behavior over time.     

Obligatory barrier crossing and adaptive fuel management in migratory birds: the case of the Atlantic crossing in Northern Wheatears (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oenanthe oenanthe</Emphasis>)

Behaviour on migration was often suggested to be selected for time-minimising strategies. Current optimality models predict that optimal fuel loads at departure from stopover sites should increase with increasing fuel deposition rates. We modified such models for the special case of the east Atlantic crossing of the Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe). From optimality theory, we predict that optimal time-minimising behaviour in front of such a barrier should result in a positive correlation between fuel deposition rates and departure fuel loads only above a certain threshold, which is the minimum fuel load (f _min) required for the barrier crossing. Using a robust range equation, we calculated the minimum fuel loads for different barrier crossings and predict that time-minimising wheatears should deposit a minimum of 24% fuel in relation to lean body mass (m ₀ ) for the sea crossing between Iceland and Scotland. Fuel loads of departing birds in autumn in Iceland reached this value only marginally but showed positive correlation between fuel deposition rate (FDR) and departure fuel load (DFL). Birds at Fair Isle (Scotland) in spring, which were heading towards Iceland or Greenland, were significantly heavier and even showed signs of overloading with fuel loads up to 50% of lean body mass. Departure decisions of Icelandic birds correlated significantly with favourable wind situations when assuming a migration direction towards Spain; however, the low departure fuel loads contradict a direct non-stop flight.     

Malaria and risk of predation: a comparative study of birds

Predators have been hypothesized to prey on individuals in a poor state of health, although this hypothesis has only rarely been examined. We used extensive data on prey abundance and availability from two long-term studies of the European Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the Eurasian Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) to quantify the relationship between predation risk of different prey species and infection with malaria and other protozoan blood parasites. Using a total of 31 745 prey individuals of 65 species of birds from 1709 nests during 1977-1997 for the Sparrowhawk and a total of 21 818 prey individuals of 76 species of birds from 1480 nests for the Goshawk during 1977-2004, we show that prey species with a high prevalence of blood parasites had higher risks of predation than species with a low prevalence. That was also the case when a number of confounding variables of prey species, such as body mass, breeding sociality, sexual dichromatism, and similarity among species in risk of predation due to common descent, were controlled in comparative analyses of standardized linear contrasts. Prevalence of the genera Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium, and Trypanosoma were correlated with each other, and we partitioned out the independent effects of different protozoan genera on predation risk in comparative analyses. Prevalence of Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium accounted for interspecific variation in predation risk for the two raptors. These findings suggest that predation is an important factor affecting parasite-host dynamics because predators tend to prey on hosts that are more likely to be infected, thereby reducing the transmission success of parasites. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that protozoan infections are a common cause of death for hosts mediated by increased risk of predation.     

The effect of perceived female parasite load on post-copulatory male choice in a sex-role-reversed pipefish

The last several decades of research in behavioral ecology have resulted in a deeper appreciation of post-mating processes and sexual conflict in sexual selection. One of the most controversial aspects of sexual selection is cryptic mate choice. Here, we take advantage of male pregnancy in a sex-role-reversed pipefish (Syngnathus typhle) to quantify cryptic choice based on perceived parasite load and other sources of variance in female fitness. Studies have shown that S. typhle males preferentially mate with females with lower parasite loads and that a male’s perception of female parasite load can be altered by tattooing females. We manipulated the apparent parasite load of females in controlled mating experiments to test the hypothesis that post-copulatory sexual selection is dependent on a male’s perception of female parasite load in pipefish. Our results provided no evidence for cryptic male choice based on perceived female parasite load. However, we found evidence that eggs from larger females were more likely to result in viable offspring than eggs from smaller females and that the first female to mate with a male transferred more eggs per copulation on average. Overall, our results show that potential for post-copulatory sexual selection does exist in pipefish, but the male’s perception of female parasite load does not play a major role in this process.     

Emissions from an automobile fire

The emissions from automobile fires have been investigated. The main gas phase components were analysed in small-scale tests with representative material from an automobile. A more detailed investigation of full-scale simulated automobile fires was also conducted, including the characterisation of gas phase components, particulates and run-off water from extinguishing activities. Three separate full scale fire tests have been characterised: a fire ignited and developed in the engine compartment; a fire ignited inside the coupé, that was extinguished in the early stages; and a similar fire ignited inside the coupé that was allowed to spread until the entire vehicle was involved in the fire. The quantitative analysis of the smoke gases from the full-scale fires showed that emissions with a potentially negative impact on the environment, or chronic toxic effect on humans, were produced in significant quantities. These emissions included HCl, SO2, VOCs (e.g. benzene), PAHs, and PCDDs/PCDFs. Analysis of run-off water indicated that it was severely contaminated, containing elevated levels of both organic compounds and metals. Comparison with data from other vehicle fires found in the literature shows that contamination by lead, copper, zinc, and antimony appears to be significant in water run-off from these types of fires.     

Predicting low biota to sediment accumulation factors of PAHs by using infinite-sink and equilibrium extraction methods as well as BC-inclusive modeling

Sequestration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) results in the slow release of PAHs from sediment to the aqueous environment, thus limiting bioavailability. Three methods to account for the limited bioavailability of native PAHs to the gastropod Hinia reticulata were therefore investigated: (i) infinite-sink extractions that measure desorption; (ii) equilibrium extractions that measure freely dissolved pore water concentrations and (iii) black carbon-inclusive modeling. The rapidly desorbing fraction was estimated based on the amount desorbed by Tenax. Relatively small amounts of PAHs (<9%) were present in F(rapid) and the observed solid-water distribution ratios (K(d,obs)) were approximately 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than literature K(oc) values. Biota to sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs) measured in the gastropod H. reticulata ranged from 0.02 to 0.07, 10-140 times lower than the theoretical value of approximately 1-2. The BSAFs calculated using the rapidly desorbing fraction or freely dissolved aqueous concentrations were also much lower than the theoretical value, and median values differed from the measured BSAFs by only a factor of 1.5-9. Furthermore, the result of using a BC-inclusive BSAF model could explain the deviation from the theoretical BSAF value and account for the low bioavailability of these native PAHs to H. reticulata. Risk assessment strategies of in situ contamination should therefore include a combination of chemical methods accounting for bioavailability, as well as bioaccumulation studies.     

Modeling water exchange and contaminant transport through a Baltic coastal region

The water exchange of the Baltic coastal zone is characterized by its seasonally varying regimes. In the safety assessment of a potential repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is important to assess the consequences of a hypothetical leak of radionuclides through the seabed into a waterborne transport phase. In particular, estimates of the associated residence times in the near-shore coastal zone are of interest. There are several methods to quantify such measures, of which three are presented here. Using the coastal location of Forsmark (Sweden) as an example, methods based on passive tracers, particle trajectories, and the average age distribution of exogeneous water parcels are compared for a representative one-year cycle. Tracer-based methods can simulate diffusivity more realistically than the other methods. Trajectory-based methods can handle Lagrangian dispersion processes due to advection but neglect diffusion on the sub-grid scale. The method based on the concept of average age (AvA) of exogeneous water can include all such sources simultaneously not only boundary water bodies but also various (fresh)-water discharges. Due to the inclusion of sub-grid diffusion this method gives a smoother measure of the water renewal. It is shown that backward in time trajectories and AvA-times are basically equipollent methods, yielding correlated results within the limits set by the diffusivity.     

Occurrence and distribution of organochlorine residues and metals in sediment,water and fish in the catchment area of lake baiyangdian,china

The occurrence and distribution of metals (Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn), organochlorine residues (HCH, DDT and metabolites, PCBs) and EOC1 (extractable organic bound chlorine) were monitored in 1993 and 1996 in sediment, water and fish in the catchment area of Lake Baiyangdian, China. The levels of the metals, especially Cd and Zn, were significantly higher in the sediment than those in non‐polluted areas. PCBs and chlorinated pesticides constituted only a minor part (< 8.4%) of the extractable organic bound chlorine, indicating the presence of additional, unknown, organochlorine residues. Among the pesticides, DDT was widely distributed and high levels occurred in fish despite a ban of its production and use in 1983. The low quotient of pp‐DDT/pp‐DDE in sediment and fish indicated that the input of DDT to the catchment area was not of recent origin.     

The rise of politics and the decline of vulnerability as criteria in disaster decisions of the United States, 1953–2009

This paper examines the shift from vulnerability to political responsiveness in presidential and gubernatorial disaster decisions in the United States from 1953–2009 (President Dwight D. Eisenhower to President Barack Obama) using annual request, declaration, and approval data from multiple sources. It makes three key conclusions: first, the 1988 Stafford Act expanded federal coverage to all categories of disasters, added a significant range of individual types of assistance, and provided extensive funding for recovery planning. Second, the election effects on disaster decisions increased over time whereas the impact of social and economic vulnerability (measured by scope of disaster) declined. Third, the changes affected governors more than presidents, and the choices of governors drove those of presidents. The analysis underscores the increasingly political nature of the disaster decision‐making process, as well as the difficulty in emphasising mitigation and preparedness as intensively as response and recovery. Proactive intervention yields fewer political rewards than responsiveness.