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111.

Background, aim, and scope

We strive to predict consequences of genetically modified plants (GMPs) being cultivated openly in the environment, as human and animal health, biodiversity, agricultural practise and farmers’ economy could be affected. Therefore, it is unfortunate that the risk assessment of GMPs is burdened by uncertainty. One of the reasons for the uncertainty is that the GMPs are interacting with the ecosystems at the release site thereby creating variability. This variability, e.g. in gene flow, makes consequence analysis difficult. The review illustrates the great uncertainty of results from gene-flow analysis.

Main features

Many independent experiments were performed on the individual processes in gene flow. The results comprise information both from laboratory, growth chambers and field trials, and they were generated using molecular or phenotypic markers and analysis of fitness parameters. Monitoring of the extent of spontaneous introgression in natural populations was also performed. Modelling was used as an additional tool to identify key parameters in gene flow.

Results

The GM plant may affect the environment directly or indirectly by dispersal of the transgene. Magnitude of the transgene dispersal will depend on the GM crop, the agricultural practise and the environment of the release site. From case-to-case these three factors provide a variability that is reflected in widely different likelihoods of transgene dispersal and fitness of introgressed plants. In the present review, this is illustrated through a bunch of examples mostly from our own research on oilseed rape, Brassica napus. In the Brassica cases, the variability affected all five main steps in the process of gene dispersal. The modelling performed suggests that in Brassica, differences in fitness among plant genome classes could be a dominant factor in the establishment and survival of introgressed populations.

Discussion

Up to now, experimental analyses have mainly focused on studying the many individual processes of gene flow. This can be criticised, as these experiments are normally carried out in widely different environments and with different genotypes, and thus providing bits and pieces difficult to assemble. Only few gene-flow studies have been performed in natural populations and over several plant generations, though this could give a more coherent and holistic view.

Conclusion

The variability inherent in the processes of gene flow in Brassica is apparent and remedies are wished for. One possibility is to expose the study species to additional experiments and monitoring, but this is costly and will likely not cover all possible scenarios. Another remedy is modelling gene flow. Modelling is a valuable tool in identifying key factors in the gene-flow process for which more knowledge is needed, and identifying parameters and processes which are relatively insensitive to change and therefore require less attention in future collections of data. But the interdependence between models and experimental data is extensive, as models depend on experimental data for their development or testing.

Recommendations

More and more transgenic varieties are being grown worldwide harbouring genes that might potentially affect the environment (e.g. drought tolerance, salt tolerance, disease tolerance, pharmaceutical genes). This calls for a thorough risk assessment. However, in Brassica, the limited and uncertain knowledge on gene flow is an obstacle to this. Modelling of gene flow should be optimised, and modelling outputs verified in targeted field studies and at the landscape level. Last but not least, it is important to remember that transgene flow in itself is not necessarily a thread, but it is the consequences of gene flow that may jeopardise the ecosystems and the agricultural production. This emphasises the importance of consequence analysis of genetically modified plants.  相似文献   
112.
In order to establish a baseline for proxy-based reconstructions for the Young Sound–Tyrolerfjord system (Northeast Greenland), we analysed the spatial distribution of primary production and sea ice proxies in surface sediments from the fjord, against monitoring data from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme. Clear spatial gradients in organic carbon and biogenic silica contents reflected marine influence, nutrient availability and river-induced turbidity, in good agreement with in situ measurements. The sea ice proxy IP25 was detected at all sites but at low concentrations, indicating that IP25 records from fjords need to be carefully considered and not directly compared to marine settings. The sea ice-associated biomarker HBI III revealed an open-water signature, with highest concentrations near the mid-July ice edge. This proxy evaluation is an important step towards reliable palaeoenvironmental reconstructions that will, ultimately, contribute to better predictions for this High Arctic ecosystem in a warming climate.  相似文献   
113.
Slurry acidification before storage is known to reduce NH(3) emissions, but recent observations have indicated that CH(4) emissions are also reduced. We investigated the evolution of CH(4) from fresh and aged cattle slurry during 3 mo of storage as influenced by pH adjustment to 5.5 with sulfuric acid. In a third storage experiment, cattle slurry acidified with commercial equipment on two farms was incubated. In the manipulation experiments, effects of acid and sulfate were distinguished by adding hydrochloric acid and potassium sulfate separately or in combination, rather than sulfuric acid. In one experiment sulfur was also added to slurry as the amino acid methionine in separate treatments. In each treatment 20-kg portions of slurry (n = 4) were stored for 95 d. All samples were subsampled nine to 10 times for determination of NH(3) and CH(4) evolution rates using a 2-L flow-through system. In all experiments, the pH of acidified cattle slurry increased gradually to between 6.5 and 7. Acidification of slurry reduced the evolution of CH(4) by 67 to 87%. The greatest reduction was observed with aged cattle slurry, which had a much higher potential for CH(4) production than fresh slurry. Sulfate and methionine amendment to cattle slurry without pH adjustment also significantly inhibited methanogenesis, probably as a result of sulfide production. The study suggests that complex microbial interactions involving sulfur transformations and pH determine the potential for CH(4) emission during storage of cattle slurry, and that slurry acidification may be a cost-effective greenhouse gas mitigation option.  相似文献   
114.
 The effects of cadmium exposure and dietary status on cadmium accumulation, fatty acid (FA) content and profiles were investigated in two colour forms of the shore crab Carcinus maenas. Groups of shore crabs were either starved or fed with blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, during a 40 d exposure period to 2 or 6 μM Cd2+ (as CdCl2). Starved green individuals accumulated more cadmium in haemolymph and hepatopancreas than did red crabs and green crabs fed during the experiments. In the red colour form, no difference in cadmium accumulation was observed between starved and fed individuals. In both colour forms, hepatopancreas contained more FA than gills and muscle. The FAs often present in the largest amounts in the tissues were 16:0, 16:1ω7, 18:1ω7, 18:1ω9, 20:4ω6, 20:5ω3 and 22:6ω3. However, saturated (SAFA) and mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) were dominant in hepatopancreas, whereas poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) were dominant in gills and muscles. At the beginning of the experiment, the total FA content in the hepatopancreas was 111.6 mg g−1 (dry weight) for red crabs and 78.4 mg g−1 for green shore crabs. During the experiment, however, the FA content decreased in red crabs. This decrease was more pronounced for starved individuals than for fed individuals. Also, the decrease in FA content was more pronounced in crabs exposed to 6 μM cadmium compared to crabs exposed to 2 μM or crabs not exposed to cadmium. No change in FA content was observed in green shore crabs, irrespective of diet and cadmium exposure. For both colour forms, no change in FA content was observed for gills and muscle. In red crabs, a decrease was observed for all FAs in the hepatopancreas. This decrease, however, was more pronounced for SAFAs and MUFAs than for PUFAs, indicating that the metabolism of FAs during starvation and cadmium exposure is selective. The experiments indicate that green colour forms of shore crabs are more tolerant of natural stress such as starvation and anthropogenic stress, e.g. cadmium exposure, than are red colour forms of shore crabs. Received: 23 September 1999 / Accepted: 29 April 2000  相似文献   
115.
Increasing human impact on stream ecosystems has resulted in a growing need for tools helping managers to develop conservations strategies, and environmental monitoring is crucial for this development. This paper describes the development of models predicting the presence of fish assemblages in lowland streams using solely cost-effective GIS-derived land use variables. Three hundred thirty-five stream sites were separated into two groups based on size. Within each group, fish abundance data and cluster analysis were used to determine the composition of fish assemblages. The occurrence of assemblages was predicted using a dataset containing land use variables at three spatial scales (50 m riparian corridor, 500 m riparian corridor and the entire catchment) supplemented by a dataset on in-stream variables. The overall classification success varied between 66.1–81.1% and was only marginally better when using in-stream variables than when applying only GIS variables. Also, the prediction power of a model combining GIS and in-stream variables was only slightly better than prediction based solely on GIS variables. The possibility of obtaining precise predictions without using costly in-stream variables offers great potential in the design of monitoring programmes as the distribution of monitoring sites along a gradient in ecological quality can be done at a low cost.  相似文献   
116.

Introduction

Induced exposure has a long history of development and usage in traffic safety research but a major question has always concerned the extent to which the accumulation of culpable and non-culpable involvements can be considered independent.

Method

Culpability assessments of 32,630 vehicles' crash-claim involvements adjudicated by insurance adjusters were matched with vehicle odometer readings taken at emission testing using consistent identification of vehicles and principal operators over a 5-year period.

Result

It was found that the accumulation of culpable crash involvements was not entirely independent of that for non-culpable involvements. However, the rate of non-culpable involvements was determined to be an acceptable surrogate for travel exposure rate where sample sizes were large.

Discussion

The relationship between the rate of non-culpable involvements and the rate of travel exposure for data subsets when both were normalized by the overall sample rates was reminiscent of an accident-volume curve for roadway locations in traffic engineering theory. This suggested that only a portion of non-culpable involvements actually related directly to travel and this lead to a correction factor that could be applied.

Impact on Industry

While lack of independence of involvement rates may be problematic for a direct risk ratio application, it does not invalidate the use of non-culpable involvements to predict travel. For insurers that have a need to estimate travel amounts for different driver/vehicle groups as part of the insurance rating purposes, this can be a useful application.  相似文献   
117.
Canopies of adult European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) were labeled with CO2 depleted in 13C to evaluate carbon allocation belowground. One-half the trees were exposed to elevated O3 for 6 yrs prior to and during the experiment. Soil-gas sampling wells were placed at 8 and 15 cm and soil CO2 was sampled during labeling in mid-late August, 2006. In beech, δ13CO2 at both depths decreased approximately 50 h after labeling, reflecting rapid translocation of fixed C to roots and release through respiration. In spruce, label was detected in fine-root tissue, but there was no evidence of label in δ13CO2. The results show that C fixed in the canopy rapidly reaches respiratory pools in beech roots, and suggest that spruce may allocate very little of recently-fixed carbon into root respiration during late summer. A change in carbon allocation belowground due to long-term O3 exposure was not observed.  相似文献   
118.
The Galathea 3 expedition circumnavigated the globe in 2006-2007 and collected marine samples from six continents. Bivalves were collected from harbours, other impacted locations and reference sites, and samples from 57 sites were analyzed for metals and 47 for organotins, to assess current contamination levels on a global scale. Metal concentrations in nine bivalve species were normalised to the Mytilidae family using conversion factors based on cosampled species and literature bioconcentration factors. The lowest metal and tributyltin concentrations were below background assessment concentrations (BACs) agreed in the Oslo-Paris convention (OSPAR) for the North Sea, and at most harbours the concentrations were orders of magnitude above BACs. The lowest concentrations of Cd and Pb measured here suggest that the BACs should be lower in a worldwide context. The sources of metals were classified according to human impact using principal component analysis. High relative concentrations of Hg, Pb and P were source indicators for industrial activity and land use; Zn, organotins, Cd and Cu for shipping activities, and V for oil spills. Generally the concentration levels at reference sites were low, but not always lower than expected impacted areas. The most contaminated areas were harbours, where especially Copenhagen, St Croix and Sydney, can be considered hotspots of tributyltin as well as a number of metals.  相似文献   
119.
Land and water resource development can independently eliminate riparian plant communities, including Fremont cottonwood forest (CF), a major contributor to ecosystem structure and functioning in semiarid portions of the American Southwest. We tested whether floodplain development was linked to river regulation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) by relating the extent of five developed land-cover categories as well as CF and other natural vegetation to catchment reservoir capacity, changes in total annual and annual peak discharge, and overall level of mainstem hydrologic alteration (small, moderate, or large) in 26 fourth-order subbasins. We also asked whether CF appeared to be in jeopardy at a regional level. We classified 51% of the 57,000 ha of alluvial floodplain examined along >2600 km of mainstem rivers as CF and 36% as developed. The proportion developed was unrelated to the level of mainstem hydrologic alteration. The proportion classified as CF was also independent of the level of hydrologic alteration, a result we attribute to confounding effects from development, the presence of time lags, and contrasting effects from flow alteration in different subbasins. Most CF (68% by area) had a sparse canopy (50% canopy cover occupied <1% of the floodplain in 15 subbasins. We suggest that CF extent in the UCRB will decline markedly in the future, when the old trees on floodplains now disconnected from the river die and large areas change from CF to non-CF categories. Attention at a basinwide scale to the multiple factors affecting cottonwood patch dynamics is needed to assure conservation of these riparian forests.  相似文献   
120.
We assessed the role of size, mass, and age in mating and non-mating polar bears (Ursus maritimus) at Svalbard, Norway, during the spring breeding season. The ratio of male to female mass, in male-female pairs, ranged from 1.00 to 3.02 ([`(x)] = 1.99 \overline x = 1.99 ) indicating that mating males were larger than mating females but with substantial variation. Paired males were older than unpaired males and male mass was related to age. However, males paired with females were not significantly different in body mass from those males caught alone. Wounds and scars resulting from fights between males began at about 6 years of age and peaked at about 17 and 20 years of age, respectively. The frequency of broken canines in males, presumably due to increased male-male conflicts, increased with age but showed little increase in females. The wide range of male size in male-female pairs and the age-related signs of injury suggest that male polar bears engage in both scramble competition and contest competition for access to breeding females. The mating system of polar bears is variable but is best described as female defense polygyny or serial monogamy.  相似文献   
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