Continuous-time capture-recapture population estimation when capture probabilities vary over time

Closed capture-recapture (CR) estimators have been used extensively to estimate population size. Most closed CR approaches have been developed and evaluated for discrete-time models, but there has been little effort to evaluate their continuous-time counterparts. Continuous-time estimators — developed using maximum likelihood theory by Craig (1953) and Darroch (1958), and martingale theory by Becker (1984) — that allow capture probabilities to vary over time were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Overall, the ML estimators had a smaller MSE. The estimators performed well when model assumptions were upheld, and were somewhat robust to heterogeneity in capture probabilities. However, the estimators were not robust to behavioural effects in the capture probabilities. Time lag effects (periods when animals might be unavailable for immediate recapture) on continuous-time estimates were also investigated and results indicated a positive bias which was greater for smaller populations. There was no gain in performance when using a continuous-time estimator versus a discrete-time estimator on the same simulated data. Usefulness of the continuous-time approach may be limited to study designs where animals are easier to sample using continuous-time methodology.     

Controlled food-chain transfer of dieldrin residues from phytoplankters to clams

The marine phytoplankter Dunaliella peircei was exposed to a concentration of 10.00μg/l of the chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticide dieldrin in sea-water solution. After 24 h exposure, the dieldrin residue level in the alga was 12.10μg/g, corresponding to a magnification factor of 1210. Clams, Rangia cuneata, allowed to feed on dieldrin-contaminated phytoplankters for 48 h exhibited a magnification of dieldrin residues in tissues up to 54 times greater than the concentration resulting from the resuspension of contaminated algal cells in clean seawater. This study demonstrates the transfer of dieldrin residues in a two-level food chain, i.e., from a contaminated alga to a bivalved mollusc allowed to feed on this alga.     

Downcore sulphur isotope ratios and diatom inferred pH in an artificially acidified Canadian shield lake

Three gravity cores were removed from near the deepest point in Lake 223 on 9 June 1984, eight years after the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) staff began the artificial acidification of the lake with sulphuric acid. The first of these cores was analysed for diatoms and pollen stratigraphy while the second and third were analysed for downcore sulphur isotope ratios (H. Thode) and downcore changes in sulphur reducing bacterial densities (S. Rao). Sediment core chronologies were based on lead-210 and cesium-137 data (R. Anderson) and the Ambrosia pollen rise (M. Dickman). Analysis of the first core to the depth of the Ambrosia pollen rise (9 cm) indicated that diatom inferred pH in Lake 223 at the time of the Ambrosia rise (circa 1890) was 6.8-7.0. At a sediment depth of 3 cm the diatom inferred pH was 6.7. Thereafter diatom inferred pH began a decline culminating in the present day (observed) pH range for 1984 (5.3-5.5). At a sediment depth of 1 cm, an increase in the abundance of two benthic alkalophilic diatoms occurred. The increase in the abundance of these diatoms was ascribed to an increase in hypolimnetic alkalinity following the artificial acidification of Lake 223. This is the first time that lake acidification has been linked to an increase in benthic alkalophilic diatoms associated with hypolimnetic alkalinity production following sulphate reduction. Sulphur in the anaerobic (black) sediment layers (0-1.5 cm) was isotopically light relative to the sulphur in the deeper layers. This was due to sulphur isotope fractionation resulting from the bacterial reduction of sulphate to hydrogen sulphide in the anaerobic portion of the water column. A jet black FeS-rich layer in the uppermost 1.5 cm of the lake's sediments was associated with an increase in the abundance of sulphate reducing bacteria (e.g. Desulfovibrio spp.).     

Induction of the P450 reporter gene system bioassay by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Ulsan Bay (South Korea) sediments

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and induction of the P450 reporter gene system (RGS) for 6- and 16-h exposure periods were determined in organic extracts of Ulsan Bay (South Korea) sediments to assess the utility of this bioassay as a screening tool for PAH contamination. The sum of the concentrations of 23 individual PAHs in 30 sediment samples (sigma PAH) based on GC-MS analysis ranged from 0.05 to 6.1 micrograms/g dry wt. P450 RGS fold induction ranged from 4.0 to 320 micrograms/g based on benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalents (BaPEq). P450 RGS BaPEq and the 'chemical BaPEq', defined as the sum of the products of individual PAH concentrations and pre-determined toxic equivalency factors, exhibited very strong positive correlations with sigma PAH (r2 > 0.90; P < 0.001). Fold induction did not increase (and in some cases decreased) after the optimal incubation period (6 h) for PAHs, indicating that other compounds known to induce the P450 RGS (e.g. chlorinated organics) were not present at levels effecting significant induction. This was supported by GC-ECD analysis where non-ortho and mono-ortho polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) known to be strong P450 RGS inducers were found to be at very low or non-detectable levels in samples with the highest P450 RGS responses. The profound difference in PAH profiles for the two most contaminated sites suggested that this assay is especially sensitive for selected PAHs with greater than four rings. Combined with previous results, the P450 RGS shows promise as a useful screening tool for predicting deleterious biological effects resulting from CYP1A1-inducing, sediment-associated chemicals, particularly high molecular weight PAHs.     

Allocation of reproductive effort in Mus domesticus: responses of offspring sex ratio and quality to social density and food availability

Summary Female mammals in good condition can maximize their inclusive fitness by investing more in male offspring than in female offspring during periods of poor environmental quality. To test this hypothesis, we measured the effects of undernutrition and crowding before and during gestation on the sex ratio and weight of offspring at parturition and at weaning in Mus domesticus. Sex ratio was not significantly affected by density. Dams altered the sex ratio of their offspring in response to food availability, but only if variance in competitive success within the experimental subpopulation was evident. Thus ad lib fed females produced litters with an unbiased sex ratio, competitively successful females under moderate food availability produced a male-biased sex ratio, and severely food deprived females produced litters with a female-biased sex ratio. In groups that experienced competition for food, successful dams favoured male offspring during lactation. These results are consistent with the predictions of Trivers and Willard (1973). Analysis of within-cell variance and covariance suggests that the interaction of social structure and food availability provides specific cues for the dams' tactical reproductive choices.     

An empirical analysis of economic strategies for controlling air pollution

In evaluating current environmental protection policy, economists often note that current regulations are more costly than necessary to meet environmental quality standards. While the a priori case is strong that current regulatory approaches are resulting in higher-than-necessary costs to attain environmental standards, there is relatively little empirical evidence to support this claim. The purpose of this paper is to supply some of the missing evidence by presenting the results of one study that assesses some of the potential savings associated with implementing economic, rather than command-and-control, regulatory approaches to abate one type of air pollution in one region of the country. Specifically, the paper examines the costs of meeting a prospective short-term standard for nitrogen dioxide under a range of alternative emissions control strategies for stationary sources of nitrogen oxide emissions in the Chicago Air Quality Control Region. The alternative strategies that are considered range from those that might result under current regulatory policy to those that economic policy approaches (such as emissions charges or marketable permits) are designed to implement. The analysis shows that the most efficient program of emissions controls may be more than an order of magnitude less costly than current regulatory strategies, and that economic approaches have additional advantages over more conventional regulatory approaches.     

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ASSESS FACTORS AFFECTING WATER CHEMISTRY USING MONITORING DATA1

ABSTRACT: A method to partition the variation in concentrations of water chemistry parameters in a river is described. The approach consists of fitting a family of curves for each chemical parameter. Each curve indicates the response of the parameter to river flow for a particular time period or location. An analysis of covariance is then used to identify statistically significant differences between curves. Such differences result largely from two factors: (1) the discharge of effluents and (2) river flow-concentration relationships. The deviations from the fitted curves indicate month-to-month variations unrelated to river flow that are controlled by factors such as temperature-related seasonal patterns. Underlying statistical assumptions are discussed with respect to water chemistry data. The technique is applied to a data set consisting of monthly samples of 22 water chemistry parameters from the Sulphur River of Texas and Arkansas. Several patterns of response to river flow and to two effluent discharges were revealed.     

Antipredator responses of koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus) against introduced and native predators

Antipredator behavior studies generally assess prey responses to single predator species although most real systems contain multiple species. In multi-predator environments prey ideally use antipredator responses that are effective against all predator species, although responses may only be effective against one predator and counterproductive for another. Multi-predator systems may also include introduced predators that the prey did not co-evolve with, so the prey may either fail to recognize their threat (level 1 naiveté), use ineffective responses (level 2 naiveté) or succumb to their superior hunting ability (level 3 naiveté). We analyzed microhabitat selection of an Australian marsupial (koomal, Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus) when faced with spatiotemporal differences in the activity/density levels of one native (chuditch, Dasyurus geoffroii) and two introduced predators (red fox, Vulpes vulpes; feral cat, Felis catus). From this, we inferred whether koomal recognized introduced predators as a threat, and whether they minimized predation risk by either staying close to trees and/or using open or dense microhabitats. Koomal remained close to escape trees regardless of the predator species present, or activity/density levels, suggesting koomal employ this behavior as a first line of defense. Koomal shifted to dense cover only under high risk scenarios (i.e., with multiple predator species present at high densities). When predation risk was low, koomal used open microhabitats, which likely provided benefits not associated with predator avoidance. Koomal did not exhibit level 1 naiveté, although further studies are required to determine if they exhibit higher levels of naiveté (2–3) against foxes and cats.     

Private aquaculture and commercial fisheries: Bioeconomics of salmon ranching

This paper shows that common property problems associated with open access salmon ranching in the absence of a commercial fishery result in inefficiency characterized by overstocking. The presence of an open access fishery presents additional common property problems which will inhibit the development of fish ranching. At prices where salmon ranching does occur, the open access commercial fishery will tend to overexploit the natural fish stock to a greater extent than if there were no salmon ranching. It is shown that there exists a range of prices where both fish stocks can coexist with open access. However, there is a limit price above which the natural stock will be driven to extinction through overfishing stimulated by stock from salmon ranchers. The range of prices under which both species can coexist can be increased through either restrictions of fishery effort or reducing the catchability of aquacultured stock. Cooperative management of both aquaculture and commercial fishing results in profits from both activities and will not cause extinction of the natural fish stock.