Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Social and Cultural Sustainability: Criteria, Indicators, Verifier Variables for Measurement and Maps for Visualization to Support Planning

Policies on economic use of natural resources require considerations to social and cultural values. In order to make those concrete in a planning context, this paper aims to interpret social and cultural criteria, identify indicators, match these with verifier variables and visualize them on maps. Indicators were selected from a review of scholarly work and natural resource policies, and then matched with verifier variables available for Sweden’s 290 municipalities. Maps of the spatial distribution of four social and four cultural verifier variables were then produced. Consideration of social and cultural values in the studied natural resource use sectors was limited. The spatial distribution of the verifier variables exhibited a general divide between northwest and south Sweden, and regional rural and urban areas. We conclude that it is possible to identify indicators and match them with verifier variables to support inclusion of social and cultural values in planning.     

Evaluation of Multi-level Social Learning for Sustainable Landscapes: Perspective of a Development Initiative in Bergslagen, Sweden

To implement policies about sustainable landscapes and rural development necessitates social learning about states and trends of sustainability indicators, norms that define sustainability, and adaptive multi-level governance. We evaluate the extent to which social learning at multiple governance levels for sustainable landscapes occur in 18 local development initiatives in the network of Sustainable Bergslagen in Sweden. We mapped activities over time, and interviewed key actors in the network about social learning. While activities resulted in exchange of experiences and some local solutions, a major challenge was to secure systematic social learning and make new knowledge explicit at multiple levels. None of the development initiatives used a systematic approach to secure social learning, and sustainability assessments were not made systematically. We discuss how social learning can be improved, and how a learning network of development initiatives could be realized.     

Relationships between colored dissolved organic matter and dissolved organic carbon in different coastal gradients of the Baltic Sea

Due to high terrestrial runoff, the Baltic Sea is rich in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the light-absorbing fraction of which is referred to as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Inputs of DOC and CDOM are predicted to increase with climate change, affecting coastal ecosystems. We found that the relationships between DOC, CDOM, salinity, and Secchi depth all differed between the two coastal areas studied; the W Gulf of Bothnia with high terrestrial input and the NW Baltic Proper with relatively little terrestrial input. The CDOM:DOC ratio was higher in the Gulf of Bothnia, where CDOM had a greater influence on the Secchi depth, which is used as an indicator of eutrophication and hence important for Baltic Sea management. Based on the results of this study, we recommend regular CDOM measurements in monitoring programmes, to increase the value of concurrent Secchi depth measurements.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

Are individual NOEC levels safe for mixtures? A study on mixture toxicity of brominated flame-retardants in the copepod Nitocra spinipes

In aquatic ecosystems organisms are exposed to mixtures of pollutants. Still, risk assessment focuses almost exclusively on effect characterization of individual substances. The main objective of the current study was therefore to study mixture toxicity of a common group of industrial substances, i.e., brominated flame-retardants (BFRs), in the harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes. Initially, 10 BFRs with high hydrophobicity but otherwise varying chemical characteristics were selected based on multivariate chemical characterization and tested individually for effects on mortality and development using a partial life cycle test (six days) where silica gel is used as a carrier of the hydrophobic substances. Based on these findings, six of the 10 BFRs were mixed in a series of NOEC proportions (which were set to 0.008, 0.04, 0.2, 1, and five times the NOEC concentrations for each individual BFR), loaded on silica gel and tested in a full life cycle test (26 days). Significantly increased mortality was observed in N. spinipes after six and 26 days exposure at a NOEC proportion that equals the NOEC LDR value (x1) for each BFR in the mixture (p=0.0015 and p=0.0105, respectively). At the NOECx5 proportion all animals were dead. None of the other NOEC proportions caused significant negative responses related to development and reproduction. This shows that low concentrations of individual substances can cause toxicity if exposed in mixtures, which highlights the need to consider mixture toxicity to a greater extent in regulatory work.     

Synthesis of Cl2- to Cl4-diphenylsulfides and Cl1- to Cl3-dibenzothiophenes

The synthesis of eleven environmentally relevant mono-, di- and trichlorodibenzothiophenes (2) by photochemical ring-closure of polychlorodiphenylsulfides (1) is described. All monochlorodibenzothiophenes were additionally synthesized starting with a chlorothiophenol in a three-step reaction adapted from the synthesis of methyldibenzothiophenes.     

Solutions-oriented research for sustainability: Turning knowledge into action: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Solutions-oriented research

In this perspective, we reflect upon the question: what processes may help transition scientific insights on sustainability issues into practice and thus contribute to tackling the complex, systemic sustainability problems of today? We use five forerunners in the field of providing and brokering knowledge for science informed real world solutions, all published in Ambio and highlighted in this Anniversary collection, as our starting point. We discuss how the authors present solutions, whom they tried to reach, and what was suggested—implicitly or explicitly—as the potential uptake processes for turning scientific knowledge into practice. With this as the starting point, we discuss how sustainability science, as a field vowed to action, has evolved in its views of actors, pathways for impacts, and the potential roles of research and researchers to promote sustainability transformations.     

Inhibition of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity in mixtures of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and polychlorinated biphenyls

Induction of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity and porphyrin accumulation shows different structure-activity relationships for different polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). Interactions between the two responses can strongly influence the induction and activity of EROD. The results support the conclusion that there are nonadditive interactions between nondioxin-like PCBs and dioxin-like compounds. The interaction between EROD activity and the porphyrin biosynthesis makes the prerequisite of additivity in the toxic equivalency factor concept for environmental mixtures highly spurious. Inhibition of EROD activity caused by non-dioxin like compounds could have a significant impact on the value of EROD activity as a biomarker in the present methods of risk assessment for these compounds.     

Organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers in air from various indoor environments

Eleven organophosphorus compounds (OPs) that are used as plasticizers and flame retardants were analysed in duplicate samples of indoor air from 17 domestic and occupational environments. Solid-phase extraction (SPE) columns were used as adsorbents and analysis was performed using GC with a nitrogen phosphorus selective detector. The total amounts of OPs in the air samples ranged between 36 and 950 ng m(-3); tris(chloropropyl) phosphate (TCPP) and tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) being the most abundant (0.4 to 730 ng m(-3)), followed by tributyl phosphate (0.5-120 ng m(-3)). Public buildings tended to have about 3-4 times higher levels of OPs than domestic buildings. The relative amounts of individual OPs varied between the sites and generally reflected the building materials, furniture and consumer products used in the sampled environments. Potential sources of these compounds include, inter alia, acoustic ceilings, upholstered furniture, wall coverings, floor polish and polyvinylchloride floor coverings. A correlation was observed between the TCEP concentrations in the air in the sampled environments and previously reported concentrations in dust, but no such correlation was seen for the heavier and less volatile tris(2-butoxyethyl) phosphate (TBEP). Based on estimated amounts of indoor air inhaled and dust ingested, adults and children in the sampled environments would be exposed to up to 5.8 microg kg(-1) day(-1) and 57 microg kg(-1) day(-1) total OPs, respectively.