Modeling oil price uncertainty effects on economic growth in Mexico: a sector-level analysis

This paper analyzes the impact of international oil price uncertainty on the different economic sectors (primary, secondary, and tertiary) in Mexico in the period 1993:1–2020:4 through a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean to capture the impact of oil volatility on economic growth at the sectoral level of economic activity. The results show that the uncertainty of the international price of oil has a differentiated effect on the different sectors of economic activity in Mexico since it does not influence the primary sector; it negatively impacts the secondary sector, and there is mixed evidence in the tertiary sector. Additionally, evidence is provided that both positive and negative shocks to the international oil price have asymmetric effects at the sectoral level in Mexico. The results highlight the need to implement public policies, at the country level, that help mitigate the effect of uncertainty in the oil market and promote economic stability at the sector level.

     

Water Vapour Transport in Biopolymeric Materials: Effects of Thickness and Water Vapour Pressure Gradient on Yeast Biomass-Based Films

Journal of Polymers and the Environment - Biopolymer-based films are hydrophilic biodegradable matrices that exhibit poor water vapour barrier. Ideally, water vapour permeability does not depend on...     

Combined effects of bed friction and emergent cylinder drag in open channel flow

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Open channel flows subjected to a longitudinal transition in roughness, from bed friction to emergent cylinder drag and vice versa, are investigated experimentally...     

Marine turtle threats in Uruguayan waters: insights from 12 years of stranding data

We present the first study conducted in a wide spatio-temporal scale on marine turtles strandings (N = 1,107) over a 12-year period (1999–2010) in Uruguay. Five species were recorded Chelonia mydas (N = 643; 58.1 %), Caretta caretta (N = 329; 29.7 %), Dermochelys coriacea (N = 131; 11.8 %), Eretmochelys imbricata (N = 3; 0.3 %), and Lepidochelys olivacea (N = 1; 0.1 %). The first three species stranded throughout the Uruguayan coast, but differences in distribution patterns were detected among species. Although occurring year round, stranding records show a clear seasonal pattern with variation in monthly distribution among species, but with a peak of records in austral summer. Strandings provide indirect evidence of threats to marine turtles in Uruguayan and surrounding waters, particularly fisheries and marine debris. Our results demonstrate that Uruguayan coastal waters likely serve as a foraging or development area for at least three endangered marine turtle species in temperate waters.     

Changes in glucose uptake rate and in the energy status of PC-12 cells acutely exposed to hexavalent chromium,an established human carcinogen

In the 1920s, Otto Warburg reported a striking metabolic shift in solid tumors: contrary to their normal counter parts, which exhibited a nearly pure respiratory metabolism, where cancer cells relied strongly on lactic fermentation for energy production, even in the presence of ample oxygen. This metabolic shift, later named the Warburg effect, is now viewed as a nearly universal cancer phenotype. To investigate whether it is operating in hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI))-induced carcinogenesis, PC-12 cells were exposed to low Cr(VI) concentrations and effects determined on the rates of glucose uptake, lactate production and oxygen consumption, critical indicators of the type of energy metabolism adopted by the cells. Further, the influence on the cells’ energy charge, an important parameter in the evaluation of the cellular physiological state was assessed. In the presence of ample oxygen, concentration-dependent, statistically significant decreases in the energy charge were detected, which were accompanied by an increased glucose uptake rate. This enhanced uptake may constitute the first step in a compensatory mechanism aimed at counteracting the decrease in energy charge. Although these changes may be too small to exert an impact in the cellular functions, they may provide insight into the initial steps of Cr(VI)-induced carcinogenesis.     

An approach to simulate wind fields around an urban environment for wind energy application

This work proposes an approach to simulate wind flow fields around an urban environment with the aim of evaluating the potential impact of buildings on the general wind patterns and power production using the current generation of commercial wind turbines. The simulation process was performed with the aid of accessible computational tools that can potentially render the proposed procedure applicable in other cases of interest. The roughness of the urban environment was defined as the association of roughness map, topography, and an alternative process for obtaining the volumetry of buildings. A case study was conducted in a region located at the district of Boa Viagem (Recife-PE) for assessing the applicability of the approach. Scenarios were designed in order to simulate wind flow patterns and pre-identify sites that have suitable wind energy potential for electric power production by investigating the combination of wind speed magnitude and turbulence intensity. From the results obtained, it was possible to identify zones of potential wind sources that are not detected in classical wind atlas probably due to the influence of the built environment on local wind flow patterns.     

Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists

Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.     

When solids meet solids: A glimpse into dust mixture explosions

Mixing an inert solid or a less flammable compound with a combustible dust can be regarded as a direct application of the inherent safety principle of moderation. An experimental investigation was carried out to determine the evolution of the ignition sensitivity and the explosion severity of such various mixtures as a function of their compositions. It demonstrates that the introduction of small amounts of highly combustible powders (such as sulphur or nicotinic acid) to a less flammable dust (such as microcrystalline cellulose or carbon black) can strongly influence the ignition sensitivity as well as the explosion severity.It has notably been shown that the ignition sensitivity of solid/solid mixtures significantly rises up when only 10–5%wt. of highly flammable dust is introduced. Simple models can often be applied to estimate the minimum ignition energy, minimum ignition temperature and minimum explosive concentration of such mixtures. Concerning the dust explosivity, three cases have been studied: mixtures of combustibles dusts without reaction, dusts with reactions between the powders, combustible dusts with inert solid. If the evolution of the maximum explosion pressure can be estimated by using thermodynamic calculations, the maximum rate of pressure rise is more difficult to predict with simple models, and both combustion kinetics and hydrodynamics of the dust clouds should be taken into account. These results were also extended to flammable dust/solid inertant mixture. They clearly show that the concentration of solid inertant at which the ignition is not observed anymore could reach 95%wt. As a consequence, the common recommendation of solid inertant introduction up to 50–80%wt. to prevent dust explosion/ignition should be reconsidered.     

Bidirectional coupling of macroscopic and microscopic pedestrian evacuation models

In this contribution, a combination of a macroscopic and a microscopic model of pedestrian dynamics using a bidirectional coupling technique is presented which allows to obtain better predictions for evacuation times. While the macroscopic model is derived from dynamic network flow theory, the microscopic model is based on a cellular automaton. Output from each model is fed into the other, thus establishing a control cycle. As a result, the gap between the evacuation times computed by both models is narrowed down: The coupled model considers both optimized routing strategies as well as microscopic effects. Accordingly the typical underestimation of evacuation times by purely macroscopic approaches is reduced. At the same time the microscopic model is enhanced by a steering component which reflects the macroscopic knowledge and the impact of supervising personnel on the distribution of pedestrian flows.     

Filial cannibalism in a nest-guarding fish: females prefer to spawn in nests with few eggs over many

In fish, fecundity correlates with female body size and egg-tending males often eat small broods. Therefore, small females may prefer to spawn in nests that already contain many eggs, to ensure the brood is as large as possible. In contrast, large females may prefer nests with few eggs, if high egg number or density has a negative effect on egg survival, or if there are drawbacks of spawning last in a nest. To test the hypothesis that female body size affects nest (and male mate) choice, using the sand goby (Pomatoschistus minutus), we allowed small and large females to choose between two males that were matched in size — one guarding a small clutch and the other a large clutch, respectively. We recorded where females spawned (measure of female preference), the combined brood size, male courtship, egg care and nest building. We also quantified the effect of brood size and egg density on egg survival in a separate data set. Although the combined broods did not exceed the small brood sizes that are at risk of being eaten, both small and large females preferred to spawn in nests with smaller clutch sizes. This preference could not be explained by more courtship or male parental effort, nor by reduced survival of larger or denser broods. Instead, our result might be explained by females avoiding the danger of cannibalism of young eggs by males or the risk of reduced egg health associated with being near the nest periphery.