Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Re-construction of the shut-down PM10 monitoring stations for the reliable assessment of PM10 in Berlin using fuzzy modelling and data transformation

A dense monitoring network is vital for the reliable assessment of PM10 in different parts of an urban area. In this study, a new idea is employed for the re-construction of the 20 shut-down PM10 monitoring stations of Berlin. It endeavours to find the non-linear relationship between the hourly PM10 concentration of both the still operating and the shut-down PM10 monitoring stations by using a fuzzy modelling technique, called modified active learning method (MALM). In addition, the simulations were performed by using not only raw PM10 databases but also log-transformed PM10 databases for skewness reduction. According to the results of hourly PM10 simulation (root mean square error about 13.0 μg/m³, correlation coefficient 0.88), the shut-down stations have been appropriately simulated and the idea of dense monitoring network development by the re-construction of the shut-down stations was realised. The results of simulations using raw and log-transformed databases showed that data transformation has no significant effect on the performance of MALM in the simulation of shut-down PM10 stations. By the combination of the 11 still operating stations and the 20 re-constructed stations, a dense monitoring network was generated for Berlin and was utilised for the calculation of the reliable monthly and mean annual PM10 concentration for five different PM10 zones in Berlin (the suburban-background, urban-background, urban-traffic, rural-background and suburban-traffic areas). The results showed that the mean annual concentration of PM10 at the five zones increased by about 13.0% in 2014 (26.3 μg/m³) in comparison with 2013 (23.3 μg/m³). Furthermore, the mean annual concentration of PM10 in the traffic lanes of the suburban (2013 25.0 μg/m³, 2014 26.9 μg/m³) and urban (2013 27.7 μg/m³, 2014 31.3 μg/m³) areas is about 14 and 20% higher than the PM10 concentration of suburban-background (2013 21.3 μg/m³, 2014 24.5 μg/m³) and urban-background (2013 23.0 μg/m³, 2014 26.1 μg/m³) areas, respectively.     

Nutritionally relevant elements in staple foods: influence of arable site versus choice of variety

Eighteen representative sites for the Austrian grain-growing and eight for the potato-growing zones (soils and crops) were investigated. On each site, total element contents (B, Ba, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P, Sr and Zn) were determined in 4–12 varieties of winter wheat (n = 136), 6 varieties of spring durum wheat (n = 30), 5 varieties of winter durum wheat (n = 15), 7 varieties of rye (n = 49), 5 varieties of spring barley (n = 30) and 5 varieties of potatoes (n = 40). Element accumulations in grain species and potato tubers varied significantly with site conditions, with the main exceptions for B in potatoes and wheat as well as for Zn, Cu and Co in durum wheat. On average, across all investigated sites, differences in varieties occurred concerning the elements Ca, Cd, Ba, Sr and Zn (except Zn in potatoes and winter durum). A rough estimation revealed that an average Austrian consumer of wheat, rye and potatoes meets more than 50% of the needs of daily element intake for K, P and Mg, between 36 and 72% for Fe, Zn and Cu, and more than 100% for Co, Mo and Mn. In particular, the elements Ca and Na have to be added from other sources.     

Distribution,fate and formation of non-extractable residues of a nonylphenol isomer in soil with special emphasis on soil derived organo-clay complexes

Anthropogenic contaminants like nonylphenols (NP) are added to soil, for instance if sewage-sludge is used as fertilizer in agriculture. A commercial mixture of NP consists of more than 20 isomers. For our study, we used one of the predominate isomers of NP mixtures, 4-(3,5-dimethylhept-3-yl)phenol, as a representative compound. The aim was to investigate the fate and distribution of the isomer within soil and soil derived organo-clay complexes. Therefore, ¹⁴C- and ¹³C-labeled NP was added to soil samples and incubated up to 180 days. Mineralization was measured and soil samples were fractionated into sand, silt and clay; the clay fraction was further separated in humic acids, fulvic acids and humin. The organo-clay complexes pre-incubated for 90 or 180 days were re-incubated with fresh soil for 180 days, to study the potential of re-mobilization of incorporated residues. The predominate incorporation sites of the nonylphenol isomer in soil were the organo-clay complexes. After 180 days of incubation, 22 % of the applied ¹⁴C was mineralized. The bioavailable, water extractable portion was low (9 % of applied ¹⁴C) and remained constant during the entire incubation period, which could be explained by an incorporation/release equilibrium. Separation of organo-clay complexes, after extraction with solvents to release weakly incorporated, bioaccessible portions, showed that non-extractable residues (NER) were preferentially located in the humic acid fraction, which was regarded as an effect of the chemical composition of this fraction. Generally, 27 % of applied ¹⁴C was incorporated into organo-clay complexes as NER, whereas 9 % of applied ¹⁴C was bioaccessible after 180 days of incubation. The re-mobilization experiments showed on the one hand, a decrease of the bioavailability of the nonylphenol residues due to stronger incorporation, when the pre-incubation period was increased from 90 to 180 days. On the other hand, a shift of these residues from the clay fraction to other soil fractions was observed, implying a dynamic behavior of incorporated residues, which may result in bioaccessibility of the NER of nonylphenol.     

Biomonitoring of heavy metals in the feathers of House crow (Corvus splendens) from some metropolitans of Asia and Africa

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Urban-dwelling birds can be useful biomonitors to assess the impact of the urbanisation on both public and wildlife health. Widely distributed urban...     

Multicriteria evaluation of simulated logging scenarios in a tropical rain forest

Forest growth models are useful tools for investigating the long-term impacts of logging. In this paper, the results of the rain forest growth model FORMIND were assessed by a multicriteria decision analysis. The main processes covered by FORMIND include tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. Tree growth is calculated based on a carbon balance approach. Trees compete for light and space; dying large trees fall down and create gaps in the forest. Sixty-four different logging scenarios for an initially undisturbed forest stand at Deramakot (Malaysia) were simulated. The scenarios differ regarding the logging cycle, logging method, cutting limit and logging intensity. We characterise the impacts with four criteria describing the yield, canopy opening and changes in species composition. Multicriteria decision analysis was used for the first time to evaluate the scenarios and identify the efficient ones. Our results plainly show that reduced-impact logging scenarios are more 'efficient' than the others, since in these scenarios forest damage is minimised without significantly reducing yield. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between yield and achieving a desired ecological state of logged forest; the ecological state of the logged forests can only be improved by reducing yields and enlarging the logging cycles. Our study also demonstrates that high cutting limits or low logging intensities cannot compensate for the high level of damage caused by conventional logging techniques.     

Heavy metal release from contaminated soils: comparison of column leaching and batch extraction results

Heavy metals in soils may adversely affect environmental quality. In this study, we investigated the release of Zn, Cd, Pb, and Cu from four contaminated soils by column leaching and single and sequential batch extractions. Homogeneously packed soil columns were leached with 67 mL/g 10(-2) M CaCl2 to investigate the exchangeable metal pool and subsequently with 1400 mL/g 10(-2) M CaCl2 adjusted to pH 3 to study the potential of metal release in response to soil acidification. In two noncalcareous soils (pH 5.7 and 5.1), exchange by Ca resulted in pronounced release peaks for Zn and Cd that were coupled to the exchange of Mg by Ca, and 40 to 70% of total Zn and Cd contents were rapidly mobilized. These amounts compared well with exchangeable pools determined in single and sequential batch extractions. In two soils with near-neutral pH, the effluent concentrations of Zn and Cd were several orders of magnitude lower and no pronounced elution peaks were observed. This behavior was also observed for Cu and Pb in all four soils. When the soils were leached at pH 3, the column effluent patterns reflected the coupling of CaCO3 dissolution (if present) and other proton buffering reactions, proton-induced metal release, and metal-specific readsorption within the soil column. Varying the flow rate by a factor of five had only minor effects on the release patterns. Overall, Ca exchange and subsequent acidification to pH 3 removed between 65 and 90% of total Zn, Cd, Pb, and Cu from the four contaminated soils.     

Permits and effluent charges in the water pollution control policies of France,West Germany,and the Netherlands

In this article the water pollution control policies of these countries and their effects on emitters are analyzed. In the Netherlands, local water control boards levy pollution charges on both direct and indirect emitters. The charges are based upon measured emissions and actual treatment costs and they vary among the boards. Discharges into surface waters are by permission only. West German law sets nationally uniform rates only for direct emitters and some pollutants, irrespective of treatment costs. The States (Länder), however, may make indirect emitters liable to pay as well. In France, river basin agencies charge emitters and grant discounts where abatement facilities have been installed. Further policy instruments are tax cuts, subsidies, and standards set on local and national levels. France, in this complex policy, also uses contrats de branche where government and industries agree by contract on pollution abatement. Evidence shows that all these policies have reduced water pollution. As emissions decrease, problems of overcapacity might occur where collective water treatment plants have been installed already. Moreover, investment in additive abatement technology may inhibit the introduction of low-waste, integrated technologies. Yet the development of the latter, though expensive in the short run, should enable industry to meet more stringent standards in the future.