Spatial extremes of wildfire sizes: Bayesian hierarchical models for extremes

In Portugal, due to the combination of climatological and ecological factors, large wildfires are a constant threat and due to their economic impact, a big policy issue. In order to organize efficient fire fighting capacity and resource management, correct quantification of the risk of large wildfires are needed. In this paper, we quantify the regional risk of large wildfire sizes, by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution to excesses over a suitably chosen high threshold. Spatio-temporal variations are introduced into the model through model parameters with suitably chosen link functions. The inference on these models are carried using Bayesian Hierarchical Models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

A three-isotope approach to disentangling the diet of a generalist consumer: the yellow-legged gull in northwest Spain

The widespread omnivory of consumers and the trophic complexity of marine ecosystems make it difficult to infer the feeding ecology of species. The use of stable isotopic analysis plays a crucial role in elucidating trophic interactions. Here we analysed δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C and δ³⁴S in chick feathers, and we used a Bayesian triple-isotope mixing model to reconstruct the diet of a generalist predator, the yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) that breeds in the coastal upwelling area off northwest mainland Spain. The mixing model indicated that although chicks from all colonies were fed with a high percentage of fish, there are geographical differences in their diets. While chicks from northern colonies consume higher percentages of earthworms, refuse constitutes a more important source in the diet of chicks from western colonies. The three-isotope mixing model revealed a heterogeneity in foraging habitats that would not have been apparent if only two stable isotopes had been analysed. Moreover, our work highlights the potential of adding δ³⁴S for distinguishing not only between terrestrial and marine prey, but also between different marine species such as fish, crabs and mussels.     

Assessment of a large watershed in Brazil using Emergy Evaluation and Geographical Information System

Humanity's future depends on the preservation of natural ecosystems that supply resources and absorb pollutants. Rural and urban productions are currently based on chemical products made from petroleum, which are responsible for high negative impacts on the Biosphere. In order to prevent those impacts, efficient public policies seeking for sustainable development are necessary. Aiming to assess the load on the environment (considering the gratuitous contributions of natural systems—a donor's perspective) due to human-dominated process, a scientific tool called Emergy Evaluation has been applied in different production systems, including crops and farms. However, there is still a lack of emergy studies in the context of watersheds, probably due to the difficulty of collecting raw data. The present work aims to carry out an assessment of Mogi-Guaçu and Pardo watershed, through the combined use of Emergy Evaluation and Geographical Information System. The agricultural and natural land uses were considered, while urban areas were excluded. Emergy flows (expressed in seJ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) obtained for all agricultural and natural land uses were expanded for the whole watershed and the emergy indices were calculated. The results show that the watershed has: low renewability (%R = 32%); low capture of natural resources through high external economic investment (EYR = 1.86); low dependence on natural resources (EIR = 1.16); and moderate load on the environment (ELR = 2.08). Considering a scenario where sugar-cane crops, orchards and pasture areas are converted from conventional to organic management, watershed's emergy performance improved, reaching a new renewability of 38%, but it is still not enough to be considered sustainable.     

Molecular insight into the population structure of common and spotted dolphins inhabiting the pelagic waters of the Northeast Atlantic

Several cetacean species exhibit fine-scale population structure despite their high dispersal capacities and the apparent continuity of the marine environment. In dolphins, most studies have focused on coastal areas and continental margins, and they revealed differentiated populations within relatively small geographic areas, sometimes in conjunction with a specialisation for different habitats (ecotypes). We analysed the population genetic structure of short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) and Atlantic spotted dolphins (Stenella frontalis) in the Azores and Madeira, the two most isolated archipelagos of the North Atlantic. The archipelago of the Azores is divided into three groups of islands and stands 900 km away from Madeira. It is not known whether individuals migrate between groups of islands and archipelagos, nor whether distinct ecotypes are present. These questions were investigated by genetic analyses of 343 biopsy samples collected on free-ranging dolphins. The analyses consisted in sequencing part of the mitochondrial hyper-variable region, screening up to 14 microsatellite loci, and molecular sexing. Results did not unravel any population structure at the scale of the study area. Lack of differentiation matches expectations for spotted dolphins, which are transient in both archipelagos, but not for common dolphins, which are present year-round in the Azores and potentially resident. Absence of genetic structure over hundreds and even thousands of kilometres implies the existence of gene flow over much larger distances than usually documented in small delphinids, which could be achieved through individual movements. This finding indicates that population structure in oceanic habitat differs from that observed in coastal habitat.     

Joint use of data and modeling in coastal wave transformation

In the framework of a research project entitled ??BRISA??BReaking waves and Induced SAnd transport??, a methodology was devised to characterize the waves joining together in-situ measurements and numerical wave propagation models. With this goal in mind, a number of in-situ measurements were made, for selected positions in front of Praia de Faro (South Portugal), during four days (25th to 28th March, 2009) by using different types of equipments (e.g., resistive wave gauges, pressure sensors, currentmeters and a new prototype pore pressure sensor using optical fibre). Wave records were obtained simultaneously offshore (at a water depth of 11.7?m below mean sea level, MSL) and at the surf and swash zones. The data processing and analysis were made by applying classical time domain techniques. Numerical simulations of the wave propagation between offshore and inshore for the measurement period were performed with two numerical models, a 1D model based on linear theory and a nonlinear Boussinesq-type model, COULWAVE, both forced by the measured offshore wave conditions of 27th March 2009. Comparisons between numerical results and field data for the pressure sensors placed in the surf and swash zones were made and discussed. This approach enables to evaluate the performance of those models to simulate those specific conditions, but also to validate the models by gaining confidence on their use in other conditions.     

Design solutions to coastal human-wildlife conflicts

Coastal areas can be a challenge for conservation due to multiple competing land uses including development, tourism, and extractive resource use. These multiple land uses often lead to human-wildlife conflicts. Here we propose that collaboration with industrial designers and architects has the potential to generate innovative and effective solutions to coastal human-wildlife conflicts. Many products for modifying animal behavior are already used by conservationists, such as barriers, corridors, and model predators. We propose that their effectiveness, quality, harmonization with local values, and integration with the designed human environment can be improved through collaboration with designers and architects. We illustrate this approach with a case study. We engaged in an industrial design- conservation collaboration focused on the design of multiple product proposals that would support a range of human-sea lion interactions in public parks and the fish market in Valdivia, Chile. The sea lions in Valdivia are a tourist attraction but also potentially dangerous. We produced images of seven proposed products of varying scales, facilitating a range of different sea lion- human interactions. Such collaborations can be useful for developing products that reduce human-wildlife conflicts and align conservation and management with local values. We urge researchers to publish conservation design proposals as well as tests of existing conservation products?? functionality, in order to improve conservation design practice around the world.     

Mobilization of arsenic and other trace elements of health concern in groundwater from the Salí River Basin, Tucumán Province, Argentina

The Salí River Basin in north-west Argentina (7,000 km²) is composed of a sequence of Tertiary and Quaternary loess deposits, which have been substantially reworked by fluvial and aeolian processes. As with other areas of the Chaco-Pampean Plain, groundwater in the basin suffers a range of chemical quality problems, including arsenic (concentrations in the range of 12.2–1,660 μg L⁻¹), fluoride (50–8,740 μg L⁻¹), boron (34.0–9,550 μg L⁻¹), vanadium (30.7–300 μg L⁻¹) and uranium (0.03–125 μg L⁻¹). Shallow groundwater (depths up to 15 m) has particularly high concentrations of these elements. Exceedances above WHO (2011) guideline values are 100% for As, 35% for B, 21% for U and 17% for F. Concentrations in deep (>200 m) and artesian groundwater in the basin are also often high, though less extreme than at shallow depths. The waters are oxidizing, with often high bicarbonate concentrations (50.0–1,260 mg L⁻¹) and pH (6.28–9.24). The ultimate sources of these trace elements are the volcanic components of the loess deposits, although sorption reactions involving secondary Al and Fe oxides also regulate the distribution and mobility of trace elements in the aquifers. In addition, concentrations of chromium lie in range of 79.4–232 μg L⁻¹ in shallow groundwater, 129–250 μg L⁻¹ in deep groundwater and 110–218 μg L⁻¹ in artesian groundwater. All exceed the WHO guideline value of 50 μg L⁻¹. Their origin is likely to be predominantly geogenic, present as chromate in the ambient oxic and alkaline aquifer conditions.