Assessment of sediment contamination in Casco Bay, Maine, USA

The current status of contaminant concentrations in Casco Bay, decadal trends of these contaminants and changes in their geographical distribution are assessed using sediment samples collected approximately 10 years apart. In general, regulated contaminants appeared to be decreasing in concentration. Total PAH and dioxins/furans concentrations did not significantly change over this period. Total organochlorine pesticides, 4,4-DDE, 4,4-DDD, total DDT, PCB, tributyltin and total butyltin decreased in concentration. Trace element concentrations in sediments decreased at the majority of the sampling sites for chromium, nickel, and selenium while arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, silver, and zinc remained relatively constant. None of the contaminants measured has increased by more than a factor of 2. Selected sites located in the Inner Bay, where concentrations are higher and new inputs were more likely, showed increased concentrations of contaminants. Most contaminants were not found at concentrations expected to adversely affect sediment biota based on ERL/ERM guidelines.     

Effect of two major N-nitroso hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) metabolites on earthworm reproductive success

Soil and topical tests were employed to investigate the effect of two N-nitroso metabolites of RDX (hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine) on earthworm reproduction. The lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) for cocoon production and hatching was 50mg/kg for both hexahydro-1-nitroso-3,5-dinitro-1,3,5-triazine (MNX) and hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitroso-1,3,5-triazine (TNX) in soil. MNX and TNX also significantly affected cocoon hatching in soil (p<0.001) and in topical tests (p=0.001). The LOECs for cocoon hatching were 1 and 10mg/kg for MNX and TNX in soil, respectively, and 10mg/L in the topical test. Greater than 100mg/kg MNX and TNX completely inhibited cocoon hatching. In soil, the EC20 values for MNX were 8.7 and 8.8mg/kg for cocoon and juvenile production, respectively, compared to 9.2 and 9.1mg/kg for TNX, respectively. The EC20 values for the total number of cocoon hatchlings were 3.1 and 4.7mg/kg for MNX and TNX, respectively, in soil and 4.5 and 3.1mg/L in the topical test. Both MNX and TNX inhibited cocoon production and hatching, suggesting that they may have a negative affect on soil ecosystems at contaminated sites.     

Human lung injury following exposure to humic substances and humic-like substances

Among the myriad particles the human respiratory tract is exposed to, a significant number are distinctive in that they include humic substances (HS) and humic-like substances (HULIS) as organic components. HS are heterogeneous, amorphous, organic materials which are ubiquitous occurring in all terrestrial and aqueous environments. HULIS are a complex class of organic, macromolecular compounds initially extracted from atmospheric aerosol particles which share some features with HS including an aromatic, polyacidic nature. As a result of having a variety of oxygen-containing functional groups, both HS and HULIS complex metal cations, especially iron. Following particle uptake by cells resident in the lung, host iron will be sequestered by HS- and HULIS-containing particles initiating pathways of inflammation and subsequent fibrosis. It is proposed that (1) human exposures to HS and HULIS of respirable size (<10 µm diameter) are associated with inflammatory and fibrotic lung disease and (2) following retention of particles which include HS and HULIS, the mechanism of cell and tissue injury involves complexation of host iron. Human inflammatory and fibrotic lung injuries following HS and HULIS exposures may include coal workers’ pneumoconiosis, sarcoidosis, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis as well as diseases associated with cigarette smoking and exposures to emission and ambient air pollution particles.     

A Bayesian strategy for combining predictions from empirical and process-based models

We present a strategy for using an empirical forest growth model to reduce uncertainty in predictions made with a physiological process-based forest ecosystem model. The uncertainty reduction is carried out via Bayesian melding, in which information from prior knowledge and a deterministic computer model is conditioned on a likelihood function. We used predictions from an empirical forest growth model G-HAT in place of field observations of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in a deciduous temperate forest ecosystem. Using Bayesian melding, priors for the inputs of the process-based forest ecosystem PnET-II were propagated through the model, and likelihoods for the PnET-II output ANPP were calculated using the G-HAT predictions. Posterior distributions for ANPP and many PnET-II inputs obtained using the G-HAT predictions largely matched posteriors obtained using field data. Since empirical growth models are often more readily available than extensive field data sets, the method represents a potential gain in efficiency for reducing the uncertainty of process-based model predictions when reliable empirical models are available but high-quality data are not.     

Aphid population response to agricultural landscape change: A spatially explicit,individual-based model

A spatially explicit individual-based simulation model has been developed to represent aphid population dynamics in agricultural landscapes. The application of the model to Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) population dynamics is detailed, including an outline of the construction of the model, its parameterisation and validation. Over time, the aphids interact with the landscape and with one another. The landscape is modified by varying a simple pesticide regime, and the multi-scale spatial and temporal implications for a population of aphids is analysed. The results show that a spatial modelling approach that considers the effects on the individual of landscape properties and factors such as wind speed and wind direction provides novel insight into aphid population dynamics both spatially and temporally. This forms the basis for the development of further simulation models that can be used to analyse how changes in landscape structure impact upon important species distributions and population dynamics.     

Adding infection to injury: synergistic effects of predation and parasitism on amphibian malformations

We explored the importance of interactions between parasite infection and predation in driving an emerging phenomenon of conservation importance: amphibian limb malformations. We suggest that injury resulting from intraspecific predation in combination with trematode infection contributes to the frequency and severity of malformations in salamanders. By integrating field surveys and experiments, we evaluated the individual and combined effects of conspecific attack and parasite (Ribeiroia ondatrae) infection on limb development of long-toed salamanders (Ambystoma macrodactylum). In the absence of Ribeiroia, abnormalities involved missing digits, feet, or limbs and were similar to those produced by cannibalistic attack in experimental trials. At field sites that supported Ribeiroia, malformations were dominated by extra limbs and digits. Correspondingly, laboratory exposure of larval salamanders to Ribeiroia cercariae over a 30-day period induced high frequencies of malformations, including extra digits, extra limbs, cutaneous fusion, and micromelia. However, salamander limbs exposed to both injury and infection exhibited 3-5 times more abnormalities than those exposed to either factor alone. Infection also caused significant delays in limb regeneration and time-to-metamorphosis. Taken together, these results help to explain malformation patterns observed in natural salamander populations while emphasizing the importance of interactions between parasitism and predation in driving disease.     

Generalized site occupancy models allowing for false positive and false negative errors

Site occupancy models have been developed that allow for imperfect species detection or "false negative" observations. Such models have become widely adopted in surveys of many taxa. The most fundamental assumption underlying these models is that "false positive" errors are not possible. That is, one cannot detect a species where it does not occur. However, such errors are possible in many sampling situations for a number of reasons, and even low false positive error rates can induce extreme bias in estimates of site occupancy when they are not accounted for. In this paper, we develop a model for site occupancy that allows for both false negative and false positive error rates. This model can be represented as a two-component finite mixture model and can be easily fitted using freely available software. We provide an analysis of avian survey data using the proposed model and present results of a brief simulation study evaluating the performance of the maximum-likelihood estimator and the naive estimator in the presence of false positive errors.     

Interactions between wave action and grazing control the distribution of intertidal macroalgae

Canopy-forming macroalgae are key species on temperate rocky shores. However, there is a lack of understanding of how the relative balance of physical and biological factors controls the establishment and persistence of intertidal macroalgae. Here we present an integrated study of the relative importance of wave-induced forces and grazing for the recruitment and survival of the canopy-forming intertidal macroalgae Fucus vesiculosus and F. spiralis. A set of overtopped breakwaters provided a nearly unconfounded gradient in wave exposure between seaward and landward sides. A biomechanical analysis was performed based on empirical measurements of maximum drag forces in breaking waves, a model of long-term maximum wave height, and the breaking stress of Fucus spp. The estimated maximum flow speed (7-8 m/s) on the seaward side of the breakwaters was predicted to completely dislodge or prune Fucus spp. larger than approximately 10 cm, while dislodgment was highly unlikely on the landward side for all sizes. Experimental transplantation of Fucus spp. supported the biomechanical analysis but also suggested that mechanical abrasion may further limit survival in wave-exposed locations. Experimental removal of the limpet Patella vulgata, which was the principal grazer at this site, resulted in recruitment of Fucus spp. on the seaward side. We present a model of limpet grazing that indicates that limpet densities >5-20 individuals/m2 provide a proximate mechanism preventing establishment of Fucus spp., whereas wave action >2 m/s reduces persistence through dislodgment and battering. In a conceptual model we further propose that recruitment and survival of juvenile Fucus spp. are controlled indirectly by wave exposure through higher limpet densities at exposed locations. This model predicts that climate change, and in particular an increased frequency of storm events in the northeast Atlantic, will restrict fucoids to more sheltered locations.