Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.     

Assessing the safety criticality of driver behavior toward cyclists at intersections

Abstract

Objective: Detailed analyses of car-to-cyclist accidents show that drivers intending to turn right at T-junctions collide more often with cyclists crossing from the right side on the bicycle lane than drivers intending to turn left. This fact has led to numerous studies examining the behavior of drivers turning left and right. However, the most essential question still has not been sufficiently answered: is the behavior of drivers intending to turn right generally more safety critical than the behavior of those intending to turn left? The purpose of this article is to provide a method that allows to determine whether a driver’s behavior toward cyclists can retrospectively be assessed as critical or non-critical.

Methods: Several theoretical considerations enriched by findings of experimental studies were employed to devise a multi-measure method. This method was applied to a dataset containing real-world approaching behavior of 48 drivers turning right and left at four T-junctions with different sight obstructions. For each driver a behavior-specific criticality was defined based on both, their driving and gaze behavior. Moreover, based on the behavior-specific criticality of each driver, the required field of view to see a cyclist from the right was defined and was set into relation with the available field of view of the T-junction.

Results: The results show that only a small portion of the drivers within the dataset would have posed an actual risk to cyclists crossing from the right side. Those situations with a higher safety criticality did not only arise when drivers intended to turn right, but also left.

Conclusion: Therefore, the analysis can only provide an explanation for the higher proportion of accidents between drivers turning right and cyclists crossing from the right side in certain situations. Further research, for example analyses of exposure data regarding the frequency of turning manoeuvers at T-junctions, is needed in order to explain the higher proportion of accidents between drivers turning right and cyclists crossing from the right side.     

Feeding trial on rainbow trout: comparison of dry fish feed and Baltic herring as a source of PCDD/Fs and PCBs

Fish is an important source of dietary intake of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). To assess bioaccumulation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in farm-raised fish, rainbow trout were fed with either Baltic herring or dry fish feed. Baltic herring feed had a PCDD/F sum concentration of 125 ng kg(-1) dry weight (d.w.), and dry fish feed contained 18.2 ng kg(-1) d.w. of PCDD/Fs. The PCB concentrations of Baltic herring and dry fish feed were 188 and 48.7 microg kg(-1) d.w., respectively. After feeding with Baltic herring for 4 months, the PCDD/F concentration of the rainbow trout fillet was 27.3 ng kg(-1) fresh weight (f.w.), which was 7.0-fold higher than the initial concentration. The PCDD/F concentration and congener profile in rainbow trout had become almost the same as in Baltic herring. PCDD/Fs were accumulated in the fillet with an efficiency of 21%. Feeding of rainbow trout with dry fish feed resulted in a PCDD/F concentration of 8.08 ng kg(-1) f.w., denoting a 2.1-fold increase from the initial level. The accumulation efficiency was 29%. Time trends in PCB concentrations followed those of PCDD/Fs. After 4 months, the PCB sum concentration in herring-fed rainbow trout was 94.4 pg kg(-1) f.w., whereas in dry fish feed-fed rainbow trout it was 38.6 microg kg(-1) f.w. Accumulation efficiencies of PCBs were higher than those of PCDD/Fs. Based on the accumulated PCDD/F and PCB concentrations, it was estimated that frequent consumption of rainbow trout fed with Baltic herring could lead to a human daily intake that exceeds the recommendation of WHO.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, biphenyls, naphthalenes and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the edible fish caught from the Baltic Sea and lakes in Finland

A total of 156 fish composite samples were collected from five areas of the Baltic Sea and from three lakes and analysed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The European Union's maximum permissible level for PCDD/Fs, 4 pg WHO-TEQ/g fresh weight (fw), was exceeded in salmon, river lamprey and Baltic herring. In other species from the Baltic Sea, the 90th percentile was 3.42 pg WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ/g fw. In the lake fish, the concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs were only 29-46% of those in the same species caught from the Baltic Sea, whereas the concentrations of PBDEs in the lake fish were as high as in the Baltic Sea fish. Dioxin-like PCBs contributed to the total dioxin-like toxicity of PCBs and PCDD/Fs by 49+/-12% in all the analysed samples.     

Synthesis of fluorinated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (F-PBDEs) as internal standards for environmental analysis

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have become widely distributed as environmental contaminants due to their wide-spread use as flame retardants. Their structural similarity to other halogenated organic pollutants, for example polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), has led to speculation that they may have similar toxicological properties and effects. Recent focus on PBDEs as possible priority pollutants has also led to an increasing need for reference standards of PBDEs for toxicological studies and for environmental analysis. In this work we synthesized a series of fluorinated PBDEs (F-PBDEs) which can be used as possible internal standards, as an alternative to high-cost alternatives, such as the (13)C-labelled analogues. F-PBDEs have been synthesized by using different coupling reactions and by bromination of fluorinated starting materials.     

New insights in analysing parasitoid attracting synomones: early volatile emission and use of stir bar sorptive extraction

Summary. It is well known that feeding by Pieris brassicae caterpillars on cabbage leaves triggers the release of volatiles that attract natural antagonists such as the parasitoid Cotesia glomerata. The temporal dynamics in the emissions of parasitoid attracting volatiles has never been elucidated in this system. In a time course experiment, caterpillar infested leaves attracted the parasitoid within one hour after infestation. At such an early stage of infestation, as much as fifty percent of the parasitoids flew towards the infested plant in a wind tunnel bioassay, while only five percent flew towards the non-infested control plant. Three hours after infestation and later, the response to the volatiles from the infested plant reached its maximum and then continued at a constantly high level for the remaining 14 hours of the experiment. Chemical analyses of volatiles collected from infested leaves at short time intervals during the first 24 hours identified a total of ten compounds, comprising green leaf volatiles, terpenoids, and a nitrile. Significant increase of emission within the first 5 hours following initial herbivory was detected for (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol, (Z)-3-hexen-1-yl acetate, cineole and benzylcyanide. Subsequently, a coupled bioassay-chemical analysis procedure was developed allowing for testing and analyzing the same sample for future identification of the bioactive compounds. This was achieved by using stir bar sorptive extraction for the analysis of solvent extracts of caterpillar-damaged leaves.     

Antioxidant and biotransformation enzymes in Myriophyllum quitense as biomarkers of heavy metal exposure and eutrophication in Suquía River basin (Córdoba, Argentina)

We report the evaluation of changes in water quality, increasing pollution level, of a section of Suquía River basin (Córdoba, Argentina) by using Myriophyllum quitense as bioindicator in addition to the measurement of chemical parameters, combined with chemometrics (ANOVA, Cluster and Discriminant Analysis). Myriophyllum quitense was collected upstream from Córdoba city at an unpolluted site of Suquía River basin. After collection plants were transplanted to different sites with different pollution levels. Subsequent to transplantation plants were weekly collected from the original site as well as from transplantation stations. Water quality was evaluated throughout the transplantation experiment, while the use of this macrophyte as bioindicator was verified through the activation of its antioxidant defenses and biotransformation system. Myriophyllum quitense reacts to the pollution stress increasing the activity of glutathione-S-transferases (CDNB and Fluorodifen), glutathione reductase (GR) and peroxidase (POD). Elevated enzyme activities agreed to different pollution levels, especially inorganic nitrogen loads combined with elevated lead and aluminum concentrations, all of them originated by anthropogenic activities, thus presenting Myriophyllum quitense as a good biomonitor for assessment of water quality in this polluted aquatic ecosystem.