Random denominators and the analysis of ratio data

Ratio data, observations in which one random value is divided by another random value, present unique analytical challenges. The best statistical technique varies depending on the unit on which the inference is based. We present three environmental case studies where ratios are used to compare two groups, and we provide three parametric models from which to simulate ratio data. The models describe situations in which (1) the numerator variance and mean are proportional to the denominator, (2) the numerator mean is proportional to the denominator but its variance is proportional to a quadratic function of the denominator and (3) the numerator and denominator are independent. We compared standard approaches for drawing inference about differences between two distributions of ratios: t-tests, t-tests with transformations, permutation tests, the Wilcoxon rank test, and ANCOVA-based tests. Comparisons between tests were based both on achieving the specified alpha-level and on statistical power. The tests performed comparably with a few notable exceptions. We developed simple guidelines for choosing a test based on the unit of inference and relationship between the numerator and denominator.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Convergence and emergence in organizations: An integrative framework and review

In reaction to the growing attention to connecting individual‐level and unit‐level constructs, we first briefly review emergence terminology and theories that address the dynamic process by which a higher‐level phenomenon emerges from lower‐level elements. Next, we review the extant theory and research on emergence and convergence in organization science using an organizing framework that simultaneously considers the content area of lower‐level elements, the emergent factors, and the target of the emergent property. In addition to organizing and bridging current literature on emergence and convergence, gaps of existing research and new directions for future research, including compilation and divergence, are identified. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of developmental metrics for utilization in a pediatric advanced automatic crash notification algorithm

Objective: Appropriate treatment at designated trauma centers (TCs) improves outcomes among injured children after motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) has shown promise in improving triage to appropriate TCs. Pediatric-specific AACN algorithms have not yet been created. To create such an algorithm, it will be necessary to include some metric of development (age, height, or weight) as a covariate in the injury risk algorithm. This study sought to determine which marker of development should serve as a covariate in such an algorithm and to quantify injury risk at different levels of this metric.

Methods: A retrospective review of occupants age < 19 years within the MVC data set NASS-CDS 2000–2011 was performed. R² values of logistic regression models using age, height, or weight to predict 18 key injury types were compared to determine which metric should be used as a covariate in a pediatric AACN algorithm. Clinical judgment, literature review, and chi-square analysis were used to create groupings of the chosen metric that would discriminate injury patterns. Adjusted odds of particular injury types at the different levels of this metric were calculated from logistic regression while controlling for gender, vehicle velocity change (delta V), belted status (optimal, suboptimal, or unrestrained), and crash mode (rollover, rear, frontal, near-side, or far-side).

Results: NASS-CDS analysis produced 11,541 occupants age < 19 years with nonmissing data. Age, height, and weight were correlated with one another and with injury patterns. Age demonstrated the best predictive power in injury patterns and was categorized into bins of 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–18 years. Age was a significant predictor of all 18 injury types evaluated even when controlling for all other confounders and when controlling for age- and gender-specific body mass index (BMI) classifications. Adjusted odds of key injury types with respect to these age categorizations revealed that younger children were at increased odds of sustaining Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ and 3+ head injuries and AIS 3+ spinal injuries, whereas older children were at increased odds of sustaining thoracic fractures, AIS 3+ abdominal injuries, and AIS 2+ upper and lower extremity injuries.

Conclusions: The injury patterns observed across developmental metrics in this study mirror those previously described among children with blunt trauma. This study identifies age as the metric best suited for use in a pediatric AACN algorithm and utilizes 12 years of data to provide quantifiable risks of particular injuries at different levels of this metric. This risk quantification will have important predictive purposes in a pediatric-specific AACN algorithm.     

Food crop accumulation and bioavailability assessment for antimony (Sb) compared with arsenic (As) in contaminated soils

Field samples and a 9-week glasshouse growth trial were used to investigate the accumulation of mining derived arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb) in vegetable crops growing on the Macleay River Floodplain in Northern New South Wales, Australia. The soils were also extracted using EDTA to assess the potential for this extractant to be used as a predictor of As and Sb uptake in vegetables, and a simplified bioaccessibility extraction test (SBET) to understand potential for uptake in the human gut with soil ingestion. Metalloids were not detected in any field vegetables sampled. Antimony was not detected in the growth trial vegetable crops over the 9-week greenhouse trial. Arsenic accumulation in edible vegetable parts was <10 % total soil-borne As with concentrations less than the current Australian maximum residue concentration for cereals. The results indicate that risk of exposure through short-term vegetable crops is low. The data also demonstrate that uptake pathways for Sb and As in the vegetables were different with uptake strongly impacted by soil properties. A fraction of soil-borne metalloid was soluble in the different soils resulting in Sb soil solution concentration (10.75?±?0.52 μg L^–1) that could present concern for contamination of water resources. EDTA proved a poor predictor of As and Sb phytoavailability. Oral bioaccessibility, as measured by SBET, was <7 % for total As and <3 % total Sb which is important to consider when estimating the real risk from soil borne As and Sb in the floodplain environment.     

Understanding conflicting cultural models of outdoor cats to overcome conservation impasse

Many conservation conflicts are scientifically complex yet are rooted in value conflicts, which result in an impasse. Additional biological information alone is insufficient to resolve this type of conflict. Conceptual models that articulate the material aspects of a system are increasingly used to identify areas where parties disagree. Yet, modeling processes typically follow the conveners’ rules for discussing and assessing the topic, which can exacerbate conflict. Researchers have identified a need for processes that require participants to reflect on the limits of their own philosophical assumptions and acknowledge other perspectives. Cultural models are a promising tool for this purpose because they include nonmaterial beliefs, morals, and values that guide people's understanding of how to interact with an issue, sometimes subconsciously. We explored how cultural models used with conceptual models can improve understanding of value conflicts and used outdoor cat management as a case study. We conducted interviews and focus group discussions with wildlife conservation and cat welfare professionals involved in outdoor cat policy discussions in Hawaii and Washington, D.C. From these conversations, we developed a conceptual model of the outdoor cat management system and cultural models that led stakeholders to weigh elements of the conceptual model differently. Although wildlife conservation professionals generally spoke about outdoor cats as invasive species, cat welfare professionals spoke about them as homeless pets. These conflicting conceptualizations of what an outdoor cat is may help explain the root of many long-standing disagreements. Examining how and when stakeholders invoke different cultural models allowed us to identify management actions that work with, rather than challenge, those models. Dialogue that embraces conflicting cultural models can be difficult and uncomfortable, but has great potential to overcome conservation impasse and achieve lasting conservation results.     

An evaluation of the interaction of morning residual layer and afternoon mixed layer ozone in Houston using ozonesonde data

The Tropospheric Ozone Pollution Project (TOPP) launched >220 ozonesondes in Houston (July 2004–June 2008) providing examples of pollution transported into, re-circulated within, and exported from the Houston area. Fifty-one launches occurred during the Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) II and the summer portion of IONS-06 (INTEX [Intercontinental Transport Experiment] Ozonesonde Network Study). On 11 days during TexAQS II and on 8 other occasions, ozonesondes were launched both at dawn and in the afternoon. Analysis of these “intensive” launch sequences shows that morning residual layer (RL) ozone concentrations ([O₃]) explained 60–70% of the variability found in the afternoon mixed layer (ML). Furthermore, maximum RL [O₃] is nearly identical to the mean ML [O₃] from the previous afternoon (morning minus afternoon = ?1.6 ± 8.4 ppbv). During TexAQS II, mean [O₃] below 1.3 km (the mean ML height from ozonesonde data) increased from 37 ± 22 ppbv in the morning to 74 ± 18 ppbv in the afternoon, suggesting an average net local daily O₃ production of ～500–900 tons over the metropolitan Houston area.     

Evaluation of a standardized method for determining soluble silver in workplace air samples

Several occupational exposure limits and guidelines exist for silver, but the values for each depend on the chemical form of the silver compound in question. In the past, it generally was not possible, without prior knowledge of the work process, to distinguish soluble silver from insoluble silver compounds collected in workplace air samples. Therefore, analytical results were historically reported as total silver. In this study, work was conducted to evaluate a method to differentiate between the quantities of water-soluble silver compounds and total silver collected on filters. The investigation entailed an evaluation of an International Organization for Standardization method to determine soluble silver in airborne particulate matter. The study design incorporated laboratory experiments to evaluate analytical figures of merit, such as selection of appropriate filter media and extraction solution, analytical recovery, and sample stability during storage. Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) filters (2 microm, 37 mm) in opaque cassettes were either spiked with known amounts of silver nitrate or contained a known mass of solid silver nitrate. Results showed that over 90% of the silver was recovered from PTFE filters. Also, field studies were conducted in which workplace air samples were collected in two silver refineries. Some of these samples were analyzed only for soluble silver while others were sequentially extracted and analyzed, first, for soluble silver, then for total silver. The mass fractions of soluble silver, as compared to total silver, were approximately 2% or less. This investigation served to validate an international standard procedure for the determination of soluble silver in workplace air samples.