Scaling range sizes to threats for robust predictions of risks to biodiversity

Assessments of risk to biodiversity often rely on spatial distributions of species and ecosystems. Range‐size metrics used extensively in these assessments, such as area of occupancy (AOO), are sensitive to measurement scale, prompting proposals to measure them at finer scales or at different scales based on the shape of the distribution or ecological characteristics of the biota. Despite its dominant role in red‐list assessments for decades, appropriate spatial scales of AOO for predicting risks of species’ extinction or ecosystem collapse remain untested and contentious. There are no quantitative evaluations of the scale‐sensitivity of AOO as a predictor of risks, the relationship between optimal AOO scale and threat scale, or the effect of grid uncertainty. We used stochastic simulation models to explore risks to ecosystems and species with clustered, dispersed, and linear distribution patterns subject to regimes of threat events with different frequency and spatial extent. Area of occupancy was an accurate predictor of risk (0.81<|r|<0.98) and performed optimally when measured with grid cells 0.1–1.0 times the largest plausible area threatened by an event. Contrary to previous assertions, estimates of AOO at these relatively coarse scales were better predictors of risk than finer‐scale estimates of AOO (e.g., when measurement cells are <1% of the area of the largest threat). The optimal scale depended on the spatial scales of threats more than the shape or size of biotic distributions. Although we found appreciable potential for grid‐measurement errors, current IUCN guidelines for estimating AOO neutralize geometric uncertainty and incorporate effective scaling procedures for assessing risks posed by landscape‐scale threats to species and ecosystems.     

Subject Index

Subject Index

Subject Index     

The primary productivity of marine macrophytes from a rocky intertidal community

This study represents the first report of primary production rates for Southern California intertidal producers. The production rates of 18 marine macrophytes near Wilson Cove, San Clemente Island, are close to those for other marine algal communities. No apparent relationship was revealed between the productivity of an alga and the division to which it belongs; however, productivity was associated with growth form. Encrusting prostrate forms were the lowest producers in terms of g C/m²/h and g C/g dry weight/h; sheet-like and finely-branched forms showed a greater productivity than coarsely-branched forms. Gelidium pusillum and Ulva californica had considerably greater production rates than the other algae measured.     

Ecological impacts on the limpet Lottia gigantea populations: human pressure over a broad scale on island and mainland intertidal zones

Here long-term monitoring data taken at 33 sites in southern and central California coast and islands were used to evaluate the size structure of the large intertidal limpet, Lottia gigantea in restricted-access and in easily accessible intertidal zones that encompass a wide range of ecological variables. Using multi-dimensional analysis of population size structures, we found that sites on islands and strictly protected mainland sites have significantly larger median limpet sizes and a greater range of limpet sizes than unprotected mainland sites, while no pattern occurs in latitudinal or regional comparison of sites. Although intertidal predators such as oystercatchers were not the primary focus of the monitoring efforts, extensive natural history notes taken during sampling visits support the argument that predation was not a primary cause for the size structure differences. Finally, substratum differences were determined not to have biased the observation of larger limpets in protected sites. In regard to human interactions with limpets, we conclude that the degree of enforcement against poaching is the better predictor of limpet size structure than proximity to population centers or visitation to intertidal sites.     

Evaluation of total volatile organic compound emissions from adhesives based on chamber tests

In 1997, Homeswest in western Australia and Murdoch University developed a project to construct low-allergen houses (LAHs) in a newly developed suburb. Before the construction of LAHs, all potential volatile organic compound (VOC) emission materials used in LAHs are required to be measured to ensure that they are low total VOC (TVOC) emission materials. This program was developed based on this purpose. In recent times, the number of complaints about indoor air pollution caused by VOCs has increased. A number of surveys of indoor VOCs have indicated that many indoor materials contribute to indoor air pollution. Although some studies have been conducted on the characteristics of VOC emissions from adhesives, most of them were focused on VOC emissions from floor adhesives. Few measurements of VOC emissions from adhesives used for wood, fabrics, and leather are available. Furthermore, most research on VOC emissions from adhesives has been done in countries with cool climates, where ventilation rates in the indoor environment are lower than those in Mediterranean climates, due to energy conservation. VOCs emitted from adhesives have not been sufficiently researched to prepare an emission inventory to predict indoor air quality and to determine both exposure levels for the Australian population and the most appropriate strategies to reduce exposure. An environmental test chamber with controlled temperature, relative humidity, and airflow rate was used to evaluate emissions of TVOCs from three adhesives used frequently in Australia. The quantity of TVOC emissions was measured by a gas chromatography/flame ionization detector. The primary VOCs emitted from each adhesive were detected by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The temporal change of TVOC concentrations emitted from each adhesive was tested. A double-exponential equation was then developed to evaluate the characteristics of TVOC emissions from these three adhesives. With this double-exponential model, the physical processes of TVOC emissions can be explained, and a variety of emission parameters can be calculated. These emission parameters could be used to estimate real indoor TVOC concentrations in Mediterranean climates.     

Climatology of diurnal trends and vertical distribution of ozone in the atmospheric boundary layer in urban North Carolina

Vertical measurements of ozone were made on a 610-m-tall tower located about 15 km southeast of Raleigh, NC, as part of an effort by the state of North Carolina to develop a state implementation plan (SIP) for ozone control in the Raleigh Metropolitan Statistical Area. During summer 1993, 1994, and 1995, ozone was monitored at ground level, 250 m, and 433 m. Boundary layer wind, temperature, and other meteorological variable profiles were determined from balloon soundings. During summer 1996 and 1997, ozone was monitored at ground level, 76 m, 128 m, and 433 m. This paper presents the analysis and discussion of the five-year data. The evolutions of the convective boundary layer during daytime and the stable nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) were found to have marked impacts on ozone concentrations. A strong diurnal pattern, with an afternoon maximum and an early morning minimum, was dominant at ground level, but it was much weaker at elevated levels and insignificant above the NBL at night. Ozone deposition velocities at night during the measurement periods were estimated to range from 0.09 to 0.64 cm/sec. We found evidence of regional transport of ozone and/or its precursors from northwest and north of the site, which may play a role in high ozone events in the Raleigh-Durham area. Ozone concentrations between the various elevated levels were well correlated, while correlations between the ground and upper levels were much weaker. However, a strong correlation was found between the nighttime and early morning ozone concentrations (CR) in the residual layer above the NBL and the maximum ground level concentration (Co max) the following afternoon. Based on this correlation, the latter may be predicted by an observational model Co max = 27.76e 0.016 CR.     

Road development, housing growth, and landscape fragmentation in northern Wisconsin: 1937-1999.

Roads remove habitat, alter adjacent areas, and interrupt and redirect ecological flows. They subdivide wildlife populations, foster invasive species spread, change the hydrologic network, and increase human use of adjacent areas. At broad scales, these impacts cumulate and define landscape patterns. The goal of this study was to improve our understanding of the dynamics of road networks over time, and their effects on landscape patterns, and identify significant relationships between road changes and other land-use changes. We mapped roads from aerial photographs from five dates between 1937 and 1999 in 17 townships in predominantly forested landscapes in northern Wisconsin, U.S.A. Patch-level landscape metrics were calculated on terrestrial area outside of a 15-m road-effect zone. We used generalized least-squares regression models to relate changes in road density and landscape pattern to concurrent changes in housing density. Rates of change and relationships were compared among three ecological regions. Our results showed substantial increases in both road density and landscape fragmentation during the study period. Road density more than doubled, and median, mean, and largest patch size were reduced by a factor of four, while patch shape became more regular. Increases in road density varied significantly among ecological subsections and were positively related to increases in housing density. Fragmentation was largely driven by increases in road density, but housing density had a significantly positive relationship with largest patch area and patch shape. Without protection of roadless areas, our results suggest road development is likely to continue in the future, even in areas where road construction is constrained by the physical environment. Recognizing the dynamic nature of road networks is important for understanding and predicting their ecological impacts over time and understanding where other types of development are likely to occur in the future. Historical perspectives of development can provide guidance in prioritizing management efforts to defragment landscapes and mitigate the ecological impacts of past road development.     

Plant Succession, Landscape Management, and the Ecology of Frugivorous Birds in Abandoned Amazonian Pastures

From towers constructed at the interface between second-growth forest and an active and an abandoned pasture, we observed inter-habitat movements of fruit-eating birds in eastern Amazônia. The abandoned pasture was composed of grasses and forbs with a scattering of shrubs and small trees. The active pasture contained a low, uniform bed of grass. A total of 47 frugivorous bird species was recorded in the second-growth forest. We observed that 18 of these species frequented the adjacent abandoned pasture but only 3 were found in the adjacent active pasture. Fruit-eating birds flying from second-growth forest typically spent only a few minutes in the abandoned pasture, and their movements were generally restricted to a pasture belt of 1–80 m along the border with the second-growth forest. Most inter-habitat movement occurred during the rainy season, which coincided with a peak in fruit availability in the abandoned pasture. Just three bird species, Ramphocelus carbo, Tachyphonus rufus , and Thraupis episcopus , accounted for an estimated 70% of the total movement of frugivores between the second-growth forest and the abandoned pasture. All three species spent most of their time in the abandoned pasture foraging on shrubs and trees but exhibited differences in their preference for specific habitat elements and in their seed-defecation habits. An understanding of bird behaviors in altered landscapes provides important information to planners and policy makers concerned with protecting regional biodiversity and maintaining landscape integrity. This research provides a rationale for placing limits on the size of clearings in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.     

Hybridization,agency discretion,and implementation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) requires that the “best available scientific and commercial data” be used to protect imperiled species from extinction and preserve biodiversity. However, it does not provide specific guidance on how to apply this mandate. Scientific data can be uncertain and controversial, particularly regarding species delineation and hybridization issues. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) had an evolving hybrid policy to guide protection decisions for individuals of hybrid origin. Currently, this policy is in limbo because it resulted in several controversial conservation decisions in the past. Biologists from FWS must interpret and apply the best available science to their recommendations and likely use considerable discretion in making recommendations for what species to list, how to define those species, and how to recover them. We used semistructured interviews to collect data on FWS biologists’ use of discretion to make recommendations for listed species with hybridization issues. These biologists had a large amount of discretion to determine the best available science and how to interpret it but generally deferred to the scientific consensus on the taxonomic status of an organism. Respondents viewed hybridization primarily as a problem in the context of the ESA, although biologists who had experience with hybridization issues were more likely to describe it in more nuanced terms. Many interviewees expressed a desire to continue the current case‐by‐case approach for handling hybridization issues, but some wanted more guidance on procedures (i.e., a “flexible” hybrid policy). Field‐level information can provide critical insight into which policies are working (or not working) and why. The FWS biologists’ we interviewed had a high level of discretion, which greatly influenced ESA implementation, particularly in the context of hybridization.