Simple models of massive epidemics of herpesvirus in Australian (and New Zealand) pilchards.

In March 1995, a mass mortality of pilchard started to occur in South Australia. This spread very rapidly throughout the Australian pilchard's range, later reaching New Zealand. In November 1998, a similar mass mortality broke out in South Australia and also spread, at a slower rate, throughout the Australian range. The mortality appeared to be caused by a herpesvirus. The mortality spread as a classical epidemic front, but its speed of progress and the brief duration of mortalities at a given location are extreme. We apply simple epidemic modelling techniques, SIR and SEIR modelling, to examine the factors behind the spread of this mortality and the differences between the 1995 and 1998/9 epidemics. We discuss biological factors influencing the critical processes of long-distance (D) and local (beta) transmission of infection.     

State-Space Modeling of the Relationship between Air Quality and Mortality

ABSTRACT

A portion of a population is assumed to be at risk, with the mortality hazard varying with atmospheric conditions including total suspended particulates (TSP). This at-risk population is not observed and the hazard function is unknown; we wish to estimate these from mortality count and atmospheric variables. Consideration of population dynamics leads to a state-space representation, allowing the Kalman Filter (KF) to be used for estimation. A harvesting effect is thus implied; high mortality is followed by lower mortality until the population is replenished by new arrivals.

The model is applied to daily data for Philadelphia, PA, 1973-1990. The estimated hazard function rises with the level of TSP and at extremes of temperature and also reflects a positive interaction between TSP and temperature. The estimated at-risk population averages about 480 and varies seasonally. We find that lags of TSP are statistically significant, but the presence of negative coefficients suggests their role may be partially statistical rather than biological. In the population dynamics framework, the natural metric for health damage from air pollution is its impact on life expectancy. The range of hazard rates over the sample period is 0.07 to 0.085, corresponding to life expectancies of 14.3 and 11.8 days, respectively.     

Dam Design can Impede Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows: A Case Study from the Opuha Dam, New Zealand

The Opuha Dam was designed for water storage, hydropower, and to augment summer low flows. Following its commissioning in 1999, algal blooms (dominated first by Phormidium and later Didymosphenia geminata) downstream of the dam were attributed to the reduced frequency and magnitude of high-flow events. In this study, we used a 20-year monitoring dataset to quantify changes associated with the dam. We also studied the effectiveness of flushing flows to remove periphyton from the river bed. Following the completion of the dam, daily maximum flows downstream have exceeded 100 m³ s^?1 only three times; two of these floods exceeded the pre-dam mean annual flood of 203 m³ s^?1 (compared to 19 times >100 m³ s^?1 and 6 times >203 m³ s^?1 in the 8 years of record before the dam). Other changes downstream included increases in water temperature, bed armoring, frequency of algal blooms, and changes to the aquatic invertebrate community. Seven experimental flushing flows resulted in limited periphyton reductions. Flood wave attenuation, bed armoring, and a shortage of surface sand and gravel, likely limited the effectiveness of these moderate floods. Floods similar to pre-dam levels may be effective for control of periphyton downstream; however, flushing flows of that magnitude are not possible with the existing dam infrastructure. These results highlight the need for dams to be planned and built with the capacity to provide the natural range of flows for adaptive management, particularly high flows.     

A test of sequential extractions for determining metal speciation in sewage sludge-amended soils

Sequential extraction procedures are widely used to estimate the quantity of trace metals bound to different solid fractions in contaminated soils. However, reliability of speciation of trace metals by these procedures remains largely unexamined. In the present study, the selectivity of each extraction step was tested by observing the effect of reversing the extraction order in the procedure. Two different sequential extraction methods and their reversed modes were used for metal fractionation in sewage sludge-amended soils. Significantly increased amounts of extractable metals (Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) were evident in the sludge-amended soils compared to control soil by all extraction schemes; however, the amounts of metals extracted by each step were strongly dependent on the order of extraction, the type of reagents and the nature of the individual metals. Caution is advised in deducing the forms of soil metals from sequential extraction results from metal-contaminated soils.     

Prognostic accuracy of factors associated with poor outcome in prenatally diagnosed sacrococcygeal teratoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Several factors associated with poor outcome in patients with prenatally diagnosed sacrococcygeal teratoma (SCT) have been found. However, the prognostic accuracy of these factors has not been well established. Therefore, we aimed to systematically review the prognostic accuracy of factors associated with poor outcome in these patients. We queried Search Premier, COCHRANE Library, EMCARE, EMBASE, PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science databases to identify studies regarding patients with prenatally diagnosed SCT. Poor outcome was defined as termination of pregnancy (TOP), intrauterine fetal death (IUFD), or perinatal death. We estimated the odds ratio of factors associated with poor outcome. Eleven studies (447 patients) were included. Overall mortality, including TOP, was 34.9%. Factors associated with poor outcome in fetuses with prenatally diagnosed SCT were cardiomegaly, hypervascular tumor, solid tumor morphology, fetal hydrops, and placentomegaly. A tumor volume to fetal weight ratio (TFR) of >0.12 before a gestational age of 24 weeks is predictive of poor outcome. The prognostic accuracy of factors associated with poor outcome in fetuses prenatally diagnosed with SCT seems promising. Factors associated with cardiac failure such as cardiomegaly, hypervascular tumor, solid tumor morphology, fetal hydrops, placentomegaly, and TFR >0.12 were found to be predictive of poor outcome.     

Accumulation of Cu and Zn from antifouling paint particles by the marine macroalga,Ulva lactuca

The marine macroalga, Ulva lactuca, has been exposed to different concentrations of antifouling paint particles (4–200 mg L^?1) in the presence of a fixed quantity of clean estuarine sediment and its photosynthetic response and accumulation of Cu and Zn monitored over a period of 2 days. An immediate (<2 h) toxic effect was elicited under all experimental conditions that was quantitatively related to the concentration of contaminated particles present. Likewise, the rate of leaching of both Cu and Zn was correlated with the concentration of paint particles added. Copper accumulation by the alga increased linearly with aqueous Cu concentration, largely through adsorption to the cell surface, but significant accumulation of Zn was not observed. Thus, in coastal environments where boat maintenance is practiced, discarded antifouling paint particles are an important source of Cu, but not Zn, to U. lactuca.     

Short- and long-term outcomes of gestational diabetes and its treatment on fetal development

Globally the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is rising mainly due to the increase in maternal obesity. A number of different methods to screen for and diagnose GDM have been described although consensus on the preferred methods does not yet exist. GDM has significant short- and long-term health risks for the mother, developing fetus and the children born to mothers with GDM. Short-term risks for the fetus include macrosomia (excessive birthweight), shoulder dystocia, birth trauma, and hypoglycaemia in the immediate postpartum period. Long-term risks for offspring born to mothers with GDM include increased rates of childhood and adulthood obesity and an increased cardiometabolic risk. A number of pharmacological treatments for GDM have been identified, these include insulin and oral glucose-lowering drugs metformin and glibenclamide. Whilst these oral glucose-lowering drugs show similar short-term childhood outcomes to insulin there is increasing evidence that these drugs may have adverse long-term outcomes on children and adults exposed to the drugs in utero. Future research on treatments for GDM should include long-term follow- up of children exposed to glucose lowering medication in utero to determine the long-term cardiometabolic risk in the offspring born to mothers with GDM.