Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Traffic and outdoor air pollution levels near highways in Baghdad,Iraq

In Iraq, the number of passenger cars, trucks and buses, local generators, and heavy construction equipment rose to a considerable extent since 2003, causing high environmental problems. Many types of pollutants were monitored and recorded for 24 h during March 2016. The study attempts to explore and establish a relationship between the volume of activity and the movement of motor vehicles of various compounds and contaminants resulting from their exhaust pipes, such as sulfur dioxide, particulate matters, oxides of nitrogen, VOCs, and unburned hydrocarbons. The study focused in and around Mohammad Al-Qasim highway adjacent to the University of Technology, Baghdad. The results showed the need for urgent treatments addressed by the environmental authorities in the city. The study results demonstrated that these contaminants are increased during periods of the beginning and end of working hours for government departments. Some types of sulfur compounds (H₂S and SO₂) concentrations were at serious health-threatening levels, which is a result of the high sulfur content in the Iraqi fuel. The concentrations of NOx and VOC were high, also, which could make the studied area vulnerable to the risk of smog formation. The Iraqi government should make greater efforts to protect the environment and human in this country from the transportation pollution risks.     

Energy–growth nexus revisited: an empirical application on transition countries

This study investigates the energy–growth nexus for transition countries analysing Granger causality between GDP growth per capita and energy use per capita. For this purpose, 17 countries located at Central and Eastern Europe and Caucasian region are chosen and a panel dataset consisting of these countries for the available period of 1990–2011 is studied. In the study, Granger causality is investigated using bootstrapped panel causality approach proposed by Konya (Econ Modell 23(6):978–992, 2006). The approach gives consistent results in case of cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity of slope coefficients between countries. Causality is examined for two scenarios: one with a trend and one without a trend. The results reveal that, in general, there is no causality running between energy consumption and economic growth, yet there is causality running from energy consumption to economic growth for some countries and sign of the relationship is always negative. Therefore, increases in energy consumption harm economic growth.     

Sustainability indicators of water sharing compacts

There is an increasing crisis of fresh water availability throughout the world. Sharing the available water resources in a sustainable manner among numerous stakeholders in the backdrop of this crisis is more challenging. Very often water conflicts are triggered out in this challenging scenario. These conflicts are sometimes reconciled with compacts on sharing. Water sharing compacts on both surface and aquifer resources are very common. Whether these compacts are founded on postulates of sustainability is the important question we want to investigate. Conflicts resurface when the sustainability of a compact is at stake. In this paper, we are reviewing three compacts on surface water sharing to understand their sustainability perspectives and how it has helped addressing conflicts. An introduction to various legal instruments promulgated aiming water conflict abatement is given first. Different types of water sharing agreements being signed in the current water management practice are also looked into. Theoretical background of sustainability analysis, both quantitative and qualitative, applicable in the case of water sharing models is then discussed. This is followed by specific case study analysis of three interstate water sharing agreements executed in basins of different agro-climatic regions across the world. It includes the Colorado basin (USA), Murray Darling basin (Australia) and the Parambikulam Aliyar Project (PAP) basins (India). Interstate water sharing agreement of these basins is critically examined and compared to comment on its sustainability perspective. The Murray Darling basin and its compact appear to be better in its overall considerations of sustainability. Compared to Colorado and Murray Darling, PAP requires major revisions in its sustainability context. E flows and stochastic modeling are the thrust areas of PAP that require major revision.     

Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province,Iran, based on strategic foresight

In recent years, the science of foresight has been entered into planning activities by urban and regional planners and this science has impacted on planning activities. This study discusses spatial development in the south of Bushehr province using the foresight approach. The general aim of this research is to compile scenarios for the development of the mentioned study area which comprises the southern part of Bushehr province including four counties of Dayyer, Jam, Kangan and Asaluyeh. The main reason for selecting this region is their direct impressibility by major changes in the country’s oil and gas industry. This research has extremely made use of the Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods to develop foresight scenarios. Using the Delphi method, 30 initial factors were identified in the economic, political-security, linkages, science and technology, manufacturing, natural, social, infrastructural and residential issues and then the cross-impact matrix was used to investigate the impact of factors on each other. In the next step, the ranking of direct and indirect factors was determined by Micmac software and on this basis, the final refining in the selection of drivers was done. In the final stage, axes of future scenarios were presented and then the future scenarios were drawn. Results of this research indicate that two main drivers namely Iran’s international relations and energy resources are the main axes of scenarios. These two drivers have more uncertainty and higher importance than other factors and the results in four scenarios showing the possibility of each situation’s occurrence.     

Effects of meteorology on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations and identifying the hot spots having significantly higher GLO concentration in a semi-urban area

The present study aims to analyse the influences of five meteorological parameters (temperature, wind speed, barometric pressure, rainfall, and solar radiations) on ground-level ozone (GLO) concentrations over the region of Ranchi Municipal Corporation (Jharkhand, India). The diurnal variation of GLO concentration and the meteorological parameters were analysed in each month to understand the associations. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients of GLO concentration with SR, AT, and DPT are found to be positive in each month and also statistically significant. But, the association between WS and GLO concentration was not uniform between the study days. Furthermore, the study also demonstrates an approach for identifying the hot spots that are having the higher level of GLO concentration. The hot spot maps were produced for each month to understand the shifting of the locations of hot spot locations. The results reveal that the hot spot locations are changes frequently in each case. Since the hot spot analysis was conducted with limited data, the presented hot spots are indicative and dependent on the meteorological conditions of the specific period and cannot be considered as a robust epidemiological study.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

Carbon and nitrogen mineralization in Vertisol as mediated by type and placement method of residue

Selection of appropriate residue application method is essential for better use of biomass for soil and environmental health improvement. A laboratory incubation experiment was conducted for 75 days to investigate C and N mineralization of residues of soybean (Glycine max L.), chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), maize (Zea mays L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) placed on the soil surface and incorporated into the soil. The residue of soybean and chickpea had a greater decomposition rate than that of maize and wheat, despite of their placements. Higher rate of decomposition of the residue of soybean and chickpea was recorded when it was kept on the soil surface while soil incorporation of residue of wheat and maize resulted in faster decomposition. Therefore, these findings could be used as guidelines for management of crop residue application in farmland to improve soil and environmental quality.     

Monitoring of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Vistula basin (Poland)

The article presents the course of meteorological droughts in Vistula subcatchments in years 1981–2010 and their influence on the occurrence of hydrological droughts. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of meteorological drought on the one hand and the Standardized Water-level Index (SWI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) as indicators of hydrological drought on the other, the mutual relationships between precipitation conditions and hydrological conditions were evaluated, as well as the relationships between the two drought types. Studies were conducted for three cumulative periods of these indices, of 12, 24, and 48 months. It was determined that meteorological droughts occurred earliest in the north-western and central part of the basin, and latest in areas lying above 300 m a.s.l. and in the south of Poland. Total duration, depending on the cumulative period, for SPI comprised from 38 to 41% of the analyzed period and for SWI (35–47%) and SRI (24–51%). The strongest relationships were identified in the central part of the Vistula (0.8?<?r?<?0.85), while the weakest relationships were recorded in the foothill region (r?<?0.5). There were also indicated non-climate-related factors influencing those relationships (underground reservoirs, diverse Vistula water resource usage for municipal and industrial intake).