Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Does risk of intraspecific interactions induce shifts in prey-size preference in aquatic predators?

Interactions between foragers may seriously affect individual foraging efficiency. In a laboratory study of handling time, prey value and prey-size preference in northern pike and signal crayfish, we show that risk of intraspecific interactions between predators does not affect handling time or value of prey. However, the presence of agonistic intraspecific interactors shifts prey-size preference in these predators. Neither northern pike nor signal crayfish foraging alone show a prey-size preference, while pike foraging among conspecifics prefer small prey, and crayfish foraging in groups prefer large prey. We ascribe the different outcomes in prey preference to differences in susceptibility to interactions: northern pike under risk avoid large prey to avoid long handling times and the associated risk of interactions, while signal crayfish foraging among conspecifics may defend themselves and their prey during handling, and thus select prey to maximise investment. In addition, the value of pike prey (roach) is low for very small prey, maximises for small prey, and then decreases monotonically for larger prey, while crayfish prey (pond snail) value is low for very small prey, has a maximum at small prey, but does not decrease as much for larger prey. Therefore, a large and easily detected snail prey provides a crayfish with as much value as a small prey. We conclude that interaction risk and predator density affect prey-size preference differently in these aquatic predators, and therefore has different potential effects on prey-size structure and population and community dynamics. Received: 4 October 1999 / Revised: 20 March 2000 / Accepted: 27 May 2000     

农作物保护产品安全与有效使用的管理

通过研究与开发,农作物保护工业开发了当在一体化农作物管理(ICM)框架内使用时会对可持续农业目标作出很大贡献的技术和方法.各成员公司采取措施,以确保开发与生产方法符合最高环境标准,并遵守所有层次的法规.农作物保护工业的管理项目力求确保农作物保护产品安全而有效地流通和使用,从而有利于农业生产,并对发达和发展中世界的环境保护作出贡献.