Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mapping Three‐Dimensional Water‐Quality Data in the Chesapeake Bay Using Geostatistics1

Abstract:  Data interpretation and visualization software tools with geostatistical capabilities were adapted, customized, and tested to assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in improving its water‐quality modeling protocols. Tools were required to interpolate, map, and visualize three‐dimensional (3D) water‐quality data, with the capability to determine estimation errors. Components of the software, originally developed for ground‐water modeling, were customized for application in estuaries. Additional software components were developed for retrieval, and for pre‐ and post‐ processing of data. The Chesapeake Bay Program uses the 3D mapped data for input to the Bay water‐quality model that projects the future health of the Bay and its tidal tributary system. In determining water‐quality attainment criteria, 3D kriging estimation errors are needed as a statistical measure of uncertainty. Furthermore, given the high cost of installing and operating new monitoring stations, geostatistical techniques can assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in the identification of suitable data collection locations. Following the evaluation, selection, and development of the software components phase, 3D ordinary kriging techniques with directional semi‐variograms to account for anisotropy were successfully demonstrated for mapping 3D fixed station water‐quality data, such as dissolved oxygen and salinity. Additionally, an improved delineation tool was implemented to simulate the upper and lower pycnocline boundary surfaces allowing the segregation of the interpolated 3D data into three separate zones for a better characterization of the pycnocline layer.     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

Short-term inhalation exposure evaluations of airborne antibiotic resistance genes in environments

Antibiotic resistance is a sword of Damocles that hangs over humans. In regards to airborne antibiotic resistance genes (AARGs), critical knowledge gaps still exist in the identification of hotspots and quantification of exposure levels in different environments. Here, we have studied the profiles of AARGs, mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and bacterial communities in various atmospheric environments by high throughput qPCR and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We propose a new AARGs exposure dose calculation that uses short-term inhalation (STI). Swine farms and hospitals were high-risk areas where AARGs standardised abundance was more abundant than suburbs and urban areas. Additionally, resistance gene abundance in swine farm worker sputum was higher than that in healthy individuals in other environments. The correlation between AARGs with MGEs and bacteria was strong in suburbs but weak in livestock farms and hospitals. STI exposure analysis revealed that occupational intake of AARGs (via PM₁₀) in swine farms and hospitals were 110 and 29 times higher than in suburbs, were 1.5 × 10⁴, 5.6 × 10⁴ and 5.1 × 10² copies, i.e., 61.9%, 75.1% and 10.7% of the overall daily inhalation intake, respectively. Our study comprehensively compares environmental differences in AARGs to identify high-risk areas, and forwardly proposes the STI exposure dose of AARGs to guide risk assessment.     

Determination of optimum minimum flow from a dam by using energy analysis

The proposed restoration of an abandoned hydroelectric dam on the Quinebaug River, Connecticut, is studied using energy analysis. The analysis considers the effects of alternative minimum flow releases, ranging from 0 to 34 cubic meters per second (cms), on the total energy flow of the affected system. The principal system components affected by differing minimum flows are hydroelectric power generation, aquatic habitat, and gross aquatic ecosystem productivity.The minimum flow alternative resulting in the highest annual energy flow in the affected system is considered optimal. From this purely analytical point of view, the optimum minimum flow is 0 cms, due to the short length and low productivity of the regulated reach, and the lack of floodplain interactions.Simulations of longer and more productive river reaches were conducted. For very short, unproductive reaches, in the absence of a floodplain, the contribution of aquatic community productivity to total system energy flow is negligible compared to hydroelectric generation. Optimum minimum flows are higher for longer and more productive reaches. For such cases the operation of hydroelectric dams could reduce total system energy flow because the energy supplied by hydroelectric generation may be offset by losses in aquatic productivity due to diminished riverine habitat.     

CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF THE SHOAL LAKE SUBDWISION1

ABSTRACT: The techniques of conflict analysis derived from game theory were applied to the Shoal Lake water supply conflict in southeastern Manitoba, Canada. The issue of conflict is the desire of an Indian Band in the area to build cottage lots near the intake for water supply for the City of Winnipeg. The City of Winnipeg contends that such a development would seriously affect the quality of water supplied to the City, thereby increasing its treatment costs significantly. The four major players defined for the conflict are the City of Winnipeg, Indian Band No. 40, the Province of Manitoba, and the Federal Department of Indian and Northern Affairs. The results of the conflict analysis suggest that the introduction of the provincial and federal government into the conifict will not assist significantly in its resolution and that further progress on the resolution is unlikely until the results of Federal Environment Assessment Review office hearing become available.     

Face mask and medical waste generation in the City of Baguio,Philippines: its current management and GHG footprint

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - The daily use of facemask to prevent virus transmission increases the negative effect on the environment because of improper waste disposal. Due to...     

Levels of dioxin-like compounds in sewage sludge determined with a bioassay based on EROD induction in chicken embryo liver cultures

A bioassay for the detection of dioxin-like compounds was used to estimate levels in sewage sludge from Swedish sewage treatment plants (STPs). The sludge extracts were HPLC-separated into three fractions containing a) monoaromatic/aliphatic, b) diaromatic (e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs], polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans [PCDDs/Fs]), and c) polyaromatic compounds (e.g. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs]). The bioassay, which is based on EROD (7-ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase) induction in cultured chicken embryo livers detected dioxin-like activity in all unfractionated extracts and in the di- and polyaromatic fractions of all sludge extracts, but not in the monoaromatic/aliphatic fractions. The levels ranged between 6 and 109 pg bio-TEQ/g sludge (d.w.). In sediment samples from rural lakes in Sweden, levels of about 5 pg bio-TEQ/g (d.w.) have been found. The polyaromatic fractions of the sludge samples were potent in the bioassay, probably due to various PAHs and other polyaromatics in the sludge. The levels of six PAHs that are screened for in the sludge at Swedish STPs accounted for only 3-10% of the observed EROD-induction by the polyaromatic fractions. Consequently, many other polyaromatic EROD-inducing compounds were present in the sludge. Inclusion of a biological test like the chicken embryo liver bioassay in the screening of sludge would improve the ability to detect the presence of bioactive dioxin-like compounds. A theoretical estimation of bio-TEQ concentrations in farm-soil following long-term application of sludge with bio-TEQ concentrations similar to those observed in this investigation indicated that the bio-TEQ levels in soil would increase very slowly over time. The chicken embryo liver bioassay proved useful in assessing levels of dioxin-like compounds in sewage sludge and it gives valuable complementary information to chemical analysis data.