Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange

Net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) is typically measured directly by eddy covariance towers or is estimated by ecosystem process models, yet comparisons between the data obtained by these two methods can show poor correspondence. There are three potential explanations for this discrepancy. First, estimates of NEE as measured by the eddy-covariance technique are laden with uncertainty and can potentially provide a poor baseline for models to be tested against. Second, there could be fundamental problems in model structure that prevent an accurate simulation of NEE. Third, ecosystem process models are dependent on ecophysiological parameter sets derived from field measurements in which a single parameter for a given species can vary considerably. The latter problem suggests that with such broad variation among multiple inputs, any ecosystem modeling scheme must account for the possibility that many combinations of apparently feasible parameter values might not allow the model to emulate the observed NEE dynamics of a terrestrial ecosystem, as well as the possibility that there may be many parameter sets within a particular model structure that can successfully reproduce the observed data. We examined the extent to which these three issues influence estimates of NEE in a widely used ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, by adapting the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. This procedure involved 400,000 model runs, each with randomly generated parameter values from a uniform distribution based on published parameter ranges, resulting in estimates of NEE that were compared to daily NEE data from young and mature Ponderosa pine stands at Metolius, Oregon. Of the 400,000 simulations run with different parameter sets for each age class (800,000 total), over 99% of the simulations underestimated the magnitude of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange, with only 4.07% and 0.045% of all simulations providing satisfactory simulations of the field data for the young and mature stands, even when uncertainties in eddy-covariance measurements are accounted for. Results indicate fundamental shortcomings in the ability of this model to produce realistic carbon flux data over the course of forest development, and we suspect that much of the mismatch derives from an inability to realistically model ecosystem respiration. However, difficulties in estimating historic climate data are also a cause for model-data mismatch, particularly in a highly ecotonal region such as central Oregon. This latter difficulty may be less prevalent in other ecosystems, but it nonetheless highlights a challenge in trying to develop a dynamic representation of the terrestrial biosphere.     

The influence of socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors on municipality-scale land-cover change in Mexico

Land-cover change is the result of complex multi-scale interactions between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Demographic change, in particular, is thought to be a major driver of forest change. Most studies have evaluated these interactions at the regional or the national level, but few studies have evaluated these dynamics across multiple spatial scales within a country. In this study, we evaluated the effect of demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables on land-cover change between 2001 and 2010 for all Mexican municipalities (n?=?2,443) as well as by biome (n?=?4). We used a land-cover classification based on 250-m MODIS data to examine the change in cover classes (i.e., woody, mixed woody, and agriculture/herbaceous vegetation). We evaluated the trends of land-cover change and identified the major factors correlated with woody vegetation change in Mexico. At the national scale, the variation in woody vegetation was best explained by environmental variables, particularly precipitation; municipalities where woody cover increased tended to be in areas with low average annual precipitation (i.e., desert and dry forest biomes). Demographic variables did not contribute much to the model at the national scale. Elevation, temperature, and population density explained the change in woody cover when municipalities were grouped by biome (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and deserts). Land-cover change at the biome level showed two main trends: (1) the tropical moist biome lost woody vegetation to agriculture and herbaceous vegetation, and (2) the desert biome increased in woody vegetation within more open-canopy shrublands.     

Can Hazard Risk be Communicated through a Virtual Experience?

Cyberspace, defined by William Gibson as a consensual hallucination, now refers to all computer-generated interactive environments. Virtual reality, one of a class of interactive cyberspaces, allows us to create and interact directly with objects not available in the everyday world. Despite successes in the entertainment and aviation industries, this technology has been called a 'solution in search of a problem'. The purpose of this commentary is to suggest such a problem: the inability to acquire experience with a hazard to motivate mitigation. Direct experience with a hazard has been demonstrated as a powerful incentive to adopt mitigation measures. While we lack the ability to summon hazard events at will in order to gain access to that experience, a virtual environment can provide an arena where potential victims are exposed to a hazard's effects. Immersion as an active participant within the hazard event through virtual reality may stimulate users to undertake mitigation steps that might otherwise remain undone. This paper details the possible direction in which virtual reality may be applied to hazards mitigation through a discussion of the technology, the role of hazard experience, the creation of a hazard simulation and the issues constraining implementation.     

Blends of (R)-3-hydroxyhexan-2-one and alkan-2-ones identified as potential pheromones produced by three species of cerambycid beetles

We present data indicating that three species of cerambycid beetles (subfamily Cerambycinae) produce the common cerambycine pheromone component (R)-3-hydroxyhexan-2-one as well as an alkan-2-one component, a possible new motif for cerambycid pheromone components. GC/MS analyses of headspace volatiles produced by male beetles indicated that Cyrtophorus verrucosus (Olivier) produced (R)-3-hydroxyhexan-2-one but also nonan-2-one at ~18 % of the hydroxyketone component, whereas Orwellion gibbulum arizonense (Casey) and Parelaphidion aspersum (Haldeman) produced decan-2-one at ~40 and 7 % of the amount of the hydroxyketone, respectively. In field bioassays, adult C. verrucosus were attracted by (R)-3-hydroxyhexan-2-one alone, but attraction was significantly enhanced by nonan-2-one. This effect was lost if the quantity of nonan-2-one exceeded 100 % of the hydroxyketone, suggesting that beetles could discern ratios of the two chemicals and were most strongly attracted to those approximating the blend produced by males. We suggest that nonan-2-one plays a role in the species specificity of the pheromone signal of C. verrucosus, and that decan-2-one plays a similar role in the semiochemical communication of O. g. arizonense and P. aspersum.     

Maternal Serum CA 125 for aneuploidy detection in early pregnancy

Maternal serum CA 125 levels were determined at 9–11 menstrual weeks for 26 cases of trisomy 13 (n = 4), trisomy 18 (n = 7), trisomy 21 (n = 15), and appropriate controls. There were no statistically significant differences between groups.     

Elemental composition of sediments in Lake Jinzai, Japan: Assessment of sources and pollution

Bottom sediments from Lake Jinzai in southwest Japan were analyzed to determine their chemical compositions and to assess the potential for ecological harm by comparison with sediment quality guidelines. The pollution status of lake sediments was evaluated by employing contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), and geoaccumulation index (I(geo)), focusing on a suite of elements in lakebed and core sediments. Elevated concentrations of As, Pb, Zn, Cu, TOC, N, and P were present in several layers of the upper core and other surface sediments. The elevated metal concentrations are likely related to the fine-grained nature of the sediments, reducing bottom conditions produced by abundant organic matter, and possibly minor non-point anthropogenic sources. Moreover, correlations between the concentrations of trace metals and organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron, suggest that these elements play a role in controlling abundances. Calculated CF, PLI, and I(geo) indicate that the sediments are strongly polluted with respect to As, moderately to strongly polluted with Zn, and moderately polluted with Pb and Cu. Metal concentrations exceed the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) lowest effect level and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) interim sediment quality guidelines that indicate moderate impact on aquatic organisms in the study area.