Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.     

Adjustment costs from environmental change

The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm's productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits (±) due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents.     

Local consumers induce resistance differentially between Spartina populations in the field

Intraspecific variation in the strength of inducible plant defenses plays a central role in the interactions between plants and herbivores. Studies of this variation are typically conducted in the greenhouse or laboratory rather than the field. We simultaneously manipulated densities of local consumers in the field within Maine and South Carolina populations of the smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora. South Carolina, but not Maine, plants induced resistance when grazed by local consumers. South Carolina populations of Littoraria snails and planthoppers colonized control more than previously grazed South Carolina plants, and Littoraria snails consumed more control than previously grazed plants. The inducible feeding deterrents in South Carolina plants appear to be water soluble, but not phenolic based. In contrast, grazed and control plants from Maine populations did not differ in attractiveness or palatability to Maine consumers. Thus, inducible plant responses by South Carolina plants had a strong effect on the South Carolina consumer community, but no analogous effect occurred in Maine. Field experiments are a powerful approach to detecting the strength of inducible plant resistance and its impacts on local consumers, which in this case were shown to vary with location.     

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park,Arizona, USA

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.     

Estimated lead (Pb) exposures for a population of urban community gardeners

Urban community gardens provide affordable, locally grown, healthy foods and many other benefits. However, urban garden soils can contain lead (Pb) that may pose risks to human health. To help evaluate these risks, we measured Pb concentrations in soil, vegetables, and chicken eggs from New York City community gardens, and we asked gardeners about vegetable consumption and time spent in the garden. We then estimated Pb intakes deterministically and probabilistically for adult gardeners, children who spend time in the garden, and adult (non-gardener) household members. Most central tendency Pb intakes were below provisional total tolerable intake (PTTI) levels. High contact intakes generally exceeded PTTIs. Probabilistic estimates showed approximately 40 % of children and 10 % of gardeners exceeding PTTIs. Children’s exposure came primarily from dust ingestion and exposure to higher Pb soil between beds. Gardeners’ Pb intakes were comparable to children’s (in µg/day) but were dominated by vegetable consumption. Adult household members ate less garden-grown produce than gardeners and had the lowest Pb intakes. Our results suggest that healthy gardening practices to reduce Pb exposure in urban community gardens should focus on encouraging cultivation of lower Pb vegetables (i.e., fruits) for adult gardeners and on covering higher Pb non-bed soils accessible to young children. However, the common practice of replacement of root-zone bed soil with clean soil (e.g., in raised beds) has many benefits and should also continue to be encouraged.     

Relations between Conspecific Density and Effects of Ultraviolet‐B Radiation on Tadpole Size in the Striped Marsh Frog

Global increases in ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst‐swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst‐swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst‐swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR‐induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low‐density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single‐factor studies. Relaciones entre la Densidad Conespecífica y los Efectos de la Radiación Ultravioleta‐B sobre el Tamaño de Renacuajos de Limnodynastes peronei     

Limited effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on sea urchin development

The sea urchin, Sterechinus neumayeri, has a circumpolar distribution and is an abundant species in benthic communities of the Antarctic. Reproduction occurs during austral spring, when ozone concentrations over the past 25 years have been reduced by 50% or more, potentially exposing the planktonic embryos and larvae to elevated levels of UVB. During spring of 1996, cultures of S. neumayeri embryos incubated under ambient and partitioned sunlight (minus UVB) at static depths between 0 and 7 m were analyzed for DNA damage [cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs)] and morphological abnormalities. At 0-m and 1-m depths, nearly 100% of embryos developed abnormally, even under UVB-shielded conditions where little or no DNA damage accumulated. At depths >3 m, reduced or no abnormality was evident and DNA damage was negligible. Although UVB contributed to 0–65% of solar-induced abnormalities, the mean contribution was 11±17% and UVB was not primarily responsible for observed defects in urchin development. Moreover, developmental responses were not linearly related to ambient UVB gradients as might be expected, but are better characterized relative to threshold levels of total UVB exposure. Accumulated exposures of 25 kJ m^–2 ambient UVB caused minimal DNA damage and allowed normal embryological development to proceed. Higher UVB exposures (especially 80 kJ m^–2) precluded normal development. An ancillary threshold limit of 17 CPDs mb^–1 has been identified as the level of DNA damage that proscribes abnormal development. While higher wavelengths of UVA and visible light are not affected by ozone concentration and do not initiate significant CPD DNA damage, they did interfere significantly with the embryological development of S. neumayeri. It is concluded that exposure to increased UVB during recent Antarctic ozone-depletion cycles probably has only a small degree of impact relative to the magnitude of other solar effects on the developmental success of Sterechinus embryos, or compared to spawning seasons before ozone depletion (i.e., years prior to 1978).Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin     

Contaminant exposure of willets feeding in agricultural drainages of the Lower Rio Grande Valley of South Texas

Willets (Catoptrophorus semipalmatus) were collected in June and August 1986 at the outlets of two agricultural drainages into the Lower Laguna Madre of South Texas and at two other Texas coastal sites. Mean liver concentration of arsenic was higher in August than June. Over 20% of the livers had arsenic concentrations elevated above a suggested background level of 5.0 ppm dry weight (DW), but concentrations (maximum 15 ppm) were below those associated with acute toxicity. Selenium concentration in livers varied from 2.3 to 8.3 ppm DW for all locations and represented background levels. Mercury concentrations in livers for all locations (means = 2.0 to 3.4, maximum 17 ppm DW) were below those associated with avian mortality and similar to levels found in other estuarine/marine birds. DDE in carcasses was higher in adults (mean = 1.0 ppm wet weight) than juveniles (0.2 ppm), and higher in August (1.0 ppm) than June (0.5 ppm); however, DDE concentrations were generally at background levels. Based on brain cholinesterase activity, willets were not recently exposed to organophosphate pesticides.     

Mercury proxies and mercury dynamics in a forested watershed of the US Northeast

Although many studies focus on mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) dynamics in streams, challenges remain in identifying the relative importance of land cover and seasonality at regulating Hg and MeHg dynamics at the watershed scale. Developing robust proxies for Hg and/or MeHg determination also remains a challenge. Our study used Hg, MeHg, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration measurements and various DOC fluorescence indices to characterize Hg and DOC dynamics in a forested watershed of the US Northeast. Principal component analysis indicated that land cover/landscape position (i.e., headwater vs. wetland-influenced area vs. lake-influenced area) explained 44 % of the variance in Hg, MeHg, DOC concentrations, and DOC quality during the snow-free season, while seasonality (i.e., air temperature and discharge) explained only 21 % of the variance in the results. Furthermore, finding a good proxy for Hg that is valid across a range of landscape positions remains a challenge; however, regression analysis indicated that the fluorescence peak Humic C (excitation?=?350 nm; emission?=?max (420–480)), which corresponds to the presence of melanoidins in water, explained 21 % of the variability in MeHg concentrations across both space and time (p?=?0.001), and thus appears to be a possible proxy for MeHg determination in our study watershed. From a management perspective, land cover modifications (lake, reservoir, and wetland) are likely to play more important roles at regulating Hg, MeHg, and DOC exports at the watershed scale than long-term changes in the climate of this region.