Social Contract and Deterring Famine: First Thoughts

The links between certain kinds of political systems and protection against famine are investigated in this paper. The starting-point is a critique of Amartya Sen's observation that famines are unknown in countries with a free press and competitive elections. This holds true only in India because of a unique political history in which freedom from famine became a right, upon which political legitimacy was founded: an anti-famine 'social contract'.
The rise and decline of anti-famine systems in Africa is charted. Major reasons for decay include neo-liberalism and the international humanitarian system, both of which undermine relationships of domestic political accountability that underpin effective famine prevention. A number of politically regressive tendencies in 'actually existing humanitarianism' are identified that work against any nascent anti-famine social contracts in Africa. This is possible because famine prevention has not been established as a right in Africa.     

北京雾霾天气期间气溶胶光学特性

为了解北京地区雾霾天气条件下大气气溶胶的光学特性,利用2002～2008年AERONET资料分析了雾霾天气期间气溶胶光学厚度、Angstrom波长指数、粒子尺度谱分布和单次散射反照率等气溶胶光学特性参数.结果表明,北京地区雾霾天气期间气溶胶光学厚度表现出较高值,且随波长增大而减小,440 nm时平均气溶胶光学厚度达到1.34.Angstrom波长指数在雾霾天气时也表现出较高值,平均值达到1.11;其中高于0.9的波长指数出现频率达到94%,说明北京雾霾天气期间气溶胶粒子主要以细粒子为主.气溶胶体积尺度谱分布表现出双峰型结构,细模态的平均峰值半径随光学厚度增大而增大,而粗模态的平均峰值半径却随光学厚度增大表现出减小趋势;气溶胶粒子尺度谱中的主模态峰与光学厚度有关.雾霾天气期间平均单次散射反照率达到0.89,且随光学厚度增大表现出依次增大趋势,但对波长变化表现不敏感.     

Response of sea urchin pluteus larvae (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) to reduced seawater pH: a comparison among a tropical, temperate, and a polar species

Ocean acidification, as a result of increased atmospheric CO₂, is predicted to lower the pH of seawater to between pH 7.6 and 7.8 over the next 100 years. The greatest changes are expected in polar waters. Our research aimed to examine how echinoid larvae are affected by lower pH, and if effects are more pronounced in polar species. We examined the effects of lowered pH on larvae from tropical (Tripneustes gratilla), temperate (Pseudechinus huttoni, Evechinus chloroticus), and a polar species (Sterechinus neumayeri) in a series of laboratory experiments. Larvae were reared in a range of lower pH seawater (pH 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 7.7, 7.8 and ambient), adjusted by bubbling CO₂ gas. The effect of pH on somatic and skeletal growth, calcification index, development and survival were quantified, while SEM examination of the larval skeleton provided information on the effects of seawater pH on the fine-scale skeletal morphology. Lowering pH resulted in a decrease in survival in all species, but only below pH 7.0. The size of larvae were reduced at lowered pH, but the external morphology (shape) was unaffected. Calcification of the larval skeleton was significantly reduced (13.8–36.9% lower) under lowered pH, with the exception of the Antarctic species, which showed no significant difference. SEM examination revealed a degradation of the larval skeletons of Pseudechinus and Evechinus when grown in reduced pH. Sterechinus and Tripneustes showed no apparent difference in the skeletal fine structure under lowered pH. The study confirms the need to look beyond mortality as a single endpoint when considering the effects of ocean acidification that may occur through the 21st century, and instead, look for a suite of more subtle changes, which may indirectly affect the functioning of larval stages.     

Flexible hierarchical mark-recapture modeling for open populations using WinBUGS

Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS. We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.

Hierarchical modeling of abundance in closed population capture–recapture models under heterogeneity

Hierarchical modeling of abundance in space or time using closed-population mark-recapture under heterogeneity (model \(\hbox {M}_{\text {h}}\) ) presents two challenges: (i) finding a flexible likelihood in which abundance appears as an explicit parameter and (ii) fitting the hierarchical model for abundance. The first challenge arises because abundance not only indexes the population size, it also determines the dimension of the capture probabilities in heterogeneity models. A common approach is to use data augmentation to include these capture probabilities directly into the likelihood and fit the model using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two such examples of this approach are (i) explicit trans-dimensional MCMC, and (ii) superpopulation data augmentation. The superpopulation approach has the advantage of simple specification that is easily implemented in BUGS and related software. However, it reparameterizes the model so that abundance is no longer included, except as a derived quantity. This is a drawback when hierarchical models for abundance, or related parameters, are desired. Here, we analytically compare the two approaches and show that they are more closely related than might appear superficially. We exploit this relationship to specify the model in a way that allows us to include abundance as a parameter and that facilitates hierarchical modeling using readily available software such as BUGS. We use this approach to model trends in grizzly bear abundance in Yellowstone National Park from 1986 to 1998.     

Land-Use Change and Carbon Flux Between 1970s and 1990s in Central Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

6 tons C were released to the atmosphere during the period of time covered by our study, equal to approximately 34% of the 1975 vegetation C pool. The Chiapas highlands, while comprising just 0.3% of Mexico's surface area, contributed 3% of the net national C emissions.     

Identification of Areas in Brazil that Optimize Conservation of Forest Carbon,Jaguars, and Biodiversity

A major question in global environmental policy is whether schemes to reduce carbon pollution through forest management, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), can also benefit biodiversity conservation in tropical countries. We identified municipalities in Brazil that are priorities for reducing rates of deforestation and thus preserving carbon stocks that are also conservation targets for the endangered jaguar (Panthera onca) and biodiversity in general. Preliminary statistical analysis showed that municipalities with high biodiversity were positively associated with high forest carbon stocks. We used a multicriteria decision analysis to identify municipalities that offered the best opportunities for the conservation of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity conservation under a range of scenarios with different rates of deforestation and carbon values. We further categorized these areas by their representativeness of the entire country (through measures such as percent forest cover) and an indirect measure of cost (number of municipalities). The municipalities that offered optimal co‐benefits for forest carbon stocks and conservation were termed REDDspots (n = 159), and their spatial distribution was compared with the distribution of current and proposed REDD projects (n = 135). We defined REDDspots as the municipalities that offer the best opportunities for co‐benefits between the conservation of forest carbon stocks, jaguars, and other wildlife. These areas coincided in 25% (n = 40) of municipalities. We identified a further 95 municipalities that may have the greatest potential to develop additional REDD+ projects while also targeting biodiversity conservation. We concluded that REDD+ strategies could be an efficient tool for biodiversity conservation in key locations, especially in Amazonian and Atlantic Forest biomes. Identificación de Áreas en Brasil que Optimizan la Conservación del Carbono del Bosque, Jaguares y la Biodiversidad.     

Bird Extinctions in Atlantic Forest Fragments of the Viçosa Region, Southeastern Brazil

Abstract:   We studied the conservation status of Atlantic forest birds in 43 forest fragments ranging in size from 1 to 384 ha in the Viçosa region of southeastern Brazil. We compared data from 15 years of field work with historical records from the region, mainly originating from specimens collected by João Moojen during the 1930s. We used published studies associated with museum data and current field work to assess the decline of forest birds during the last 70 years and to relate their disappearance to forest fragmentation and destruction. At least 28 bird species have become locally extinct, 43 are critically endangered, and 25 are vulnerable, representing 60.7% of the original forest bird community known to exist in the region. Vulnerability to fragmentation differed among guilds, forest strata, and endemicity status. Birds that feed on fruit and seeds, and those that feed on insects, were more threatened than omnivores and carnivores. Nectarivorous species were less threatened than other guilds. Moreover, terrestrial and understory birds or birds using only one forest stratum also were more likely to have been threatened. Finally, Atlantic forest endemics were more likely to have become extinct than nonendemic species. In general, sensitivity to environmental disturbance at the local level was similar to the predicted vulnerability to regional disturbance derived from the literature. Our results indicate that a serious decline of Atlantic forest birds is underway and that many other species of birds, not previously recognized as threatened, are of conservation concern .     

Implications of life history for genetic structure and migration rates of southern African coastal invertebrates: planktonic,abbreviated and direct development

The amount of genetic structure in marine invertebrates is often thought to be negatively correlated with larval duration. However, larval retention may increase genetic structure in species with long-lived planktonic larvae, and rafting provides a means of dispersal for species that lack a larval dispersal phase. We compared genetic structure, demographic histories and levels of gene flow of regional lineages (in most cases defined by biogeographic region) of five southern African coastal invertebrates with three main types of larval development: (1) dispersal by long-lived planktonic larvae (mudprawn Upogebia africana and brown mussel Perna perna), (2) abbreviated larval development (crown crab Hymenosoma orbiculare) and (3) direct development (estuarine isopod Exosphaeroma hylecoetes and estuarine cumacean Iphinoe truncata). We hypothesized that H. orbiculare, having abbreviated larval development, would employ a strategy of larval retention, resulting in genetic structure comparable to that of the direct developers rather than the planktonic dispersers. However, regional population structure was significantly lower in all species with planktonic larvae, including H. orbiculare, than in the direct developers. Moreover, nested clade analysis identified demographic histories resulting from low levels of gene flow (isolation by distance and allopatric fragmentation) in the direct developers only, and migration rates were significantly higher in all three species having planktonic larvae than in the direct developers. We conclude that the amount of genetic structure within marine biogeographic regions strongly depends on the presence or absence of free-swimming larvae. Whether such larvae are primarily exported or retained, whether they have long or short larval duration, and whether or not they are capable of active dispersal seems to have little effect on connectivity among populations.