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Ocean acidification, as a result of increased atmospheric CO2, is predicted to lower the pH of seawater to between pH 7.6 and 7.8 over the next 100 years. The greatest changes are expected in polar waters. Our research aimed to examine how echinoid larvae are affected by lower pH, and if effects are more pronounced in polar species. We examined the effects of lowered pH on larvae from tropical (Tripneustes gratilla), temperate (Pseudechinus huttoni, Evechinus chloroticus), and a polar species (Sterechinus neumayeri) in a series of laboratory experiments. Larvae were reared in a range of lower pH seawater (pH 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 7.7, 7.8 and ambient), adjusted by bubbling CO2 gas. The effect of pH on somatic and skeletal growth, calcification index, development and survival were quantified, while SEM examination of the larval skeleton provided information on the effects of seawater pH on the fine-scale skeletal morphology. Lowering pH resulted in a decrease in survival in all species, but only below pH 7.0. The size of larvae were reduced at lowered pH, but the external morphology (shape) was unaffected. Calcification of the larval skeleton was significantly reduced (13.8–36.9% lower) under lowered pH, with the exception of the Antarctic species, which showed no significant difference. SEM examination revealed a degradation of the larval skeletons of Pseudechinus and Evechinus when grown in reduced pH. Sterechinus and Tripneustes showed no apparent difference in the skeletal fine structure under lowered pH. The study confirms the need to look beyond mortality as a single endpoint when considering the effects of ocean acidification that may occur through the 21st century, and instead, look for a suite of more subtle changes, which may indirectly affect the functioning of larval stages.  相似文献   
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Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS. We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.
Darryl I. MacKenzieEmail:
  相似文献   
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Hierarchical modeling of abundance in space or time using closed-population mark-recapture under heterogeneity (model \(\hbox {M}_{\text {h}}\) ) presents two challenges: (i) finding a flexible likelihood in which abundance appears as an explicit parameter and (ii) fitting the hierarchical model for abundance. The first challenge arises because abundance not only indexes the population size, it also determines the dimension of the capture probabilities in heterogeneity models. A common approach is to use data augmentation to include these capture probabilities directly into the likelihood and fit the model using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two such examples of this approach are (i) explicit trans-dimensional MCMC, and (ii) superpopulation data augmentation. The superpopulation approach has the advantage of simple specification that is easily implemented in BUGS and related software. However, it reparameterizes the model so that abundance is no longer included, except as a derived quantity. This is a drawback when hierarchical models for abundance, or related parameters, are desired. Here, we analytically compare the two approaches and show that they are more closely related than might appear superficially. We exploit this relationship to specify the model in a way that allows us to include abundance as a parameter and that facilitates hierarchical modeling using readily available software such as BUGS. We use this approach to model trends in grizzly bear abundance in Yellowstone National Park from 1986 to 1998.  相似文献   
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This study was undertaken to determine the importance of riparian buffers to stream ecology in agricultural areas. The original Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS) data set was partitioned to represent agricultural sites in Maryland's Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions. ANOVA, multiple linear regression (MLR), and CART regression tree models were developed using riparian and site catchment landscape characteristics. MBSS data were both stratified by physiographic region and analyzed as a combined data set. All models indicated that land management at the site was not the controlling factor for fish IBIs (FIBI) at that site and, hence, using FIBI to evaluate site-scale factors would not be a prudent procedure. Measures of instream habitat and location in the stream network were the dominant explanatory factors for FIBI models. Both CART and MLR models indicated that forest buffers were influential on benthic IBIs (BIBI). Explanatory variables reflected instream conditions, adjacent landscape influence, and chemistry in the Coastal Plains sites, all of which are relatively site specific. However, for Piedmont sites, hydrologic factors were important, in addition to adjacent landscape influence, and chemistry. Both Coastal Plain and Piedmont CART models identified several hydrologic factors, emphasizing the dominant control of hydrology on the physical habitat index (PHI). Riparian buffers were a secondary influence on PHI in the Coastal Plain, but not in the Piedmont. Between 40% and 70% of the variation in FIBI, BIBI, and PHI was explained by the “easily obtainable” variables available from the MBSS data set. While these are empirical results specific to Maryland, the general findings are of use to other locations where the establishment of forest buffers is considered as an aquatic ecosystem restoration measure.  相似文献   
37.
Lognormal distribution is often used as a default model for regression analysis of particle size distribution (PSD) data; however, its goodness-of-fit to particle matter (PM) sampled from animal buildings and its comparison to other PSD models have not been well examined. This study aimed to evaluate and to compare the goodness-of-fit of six PSD models to total suspended particulate matter (TSP) samples collected from 15 animal buildings. Four particle size analyzers were used for PSD measurement. The models' goodness-of-fit was evaluated based on adjusted R2, Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and mean squared error (MSE) values. Results showed that the models' approximation of measured PSDs differed with particle size analyzer. The lognormal distribution model offered overall good approximations to measured PSD data, but was inferior to the gamma and Weibull distribution models when applied to PSD data derived from the Horiba and Malvern analyzers. Single-variable models including the exponential, Khrgian-Mazin, and Chen's empirical models provided relatively poor approximations and, thus, were not recommended for future investigations. A further examination on model-predicted PSD parameters revealed that even the best-fit model of the six could significantly misestimate mean diameter median diameter; and variance. However, compared with other models, the best-fit model still offered the relatively best estimates of mean and median diameters, whereas the best predicted variances were given by the gamma distribution model.  相似文献   
38.
A series of laboratory microcosm experiments and a field pilot test were performed to evaluate the potential for aerobic biodegradation of aromatic hydrocarbons and methyl tert‐butyl ether (MtBE; a common oxygenate additive in gasoline) in saline, high temperature (>30° C) groundwater. Aquifer, sediment, and groundwater samples from two sites, one in Canada and another in Saudi Arabia, were incubated for 106 days to evaluate the changes in select hydrocarbon and MtBE concentrations and microbial community structure. Almost complete biodegradation of the aromatic hydrocarbons was found in the Saudi Arabian microcosm samples whereas the Canadian microcosm samples showed no significant biodegradation during the laboratory testing. MtBE degradation was not observed in either set of microcosms. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analyses showed that, while the Canadian microorganisms were the most diverse, they showed little response during incubation. The microbial communities for the Saudi Arabian sample contained significant numbers of microorganisms capable of hydrocarbon degradation which increased during incubation. Based on the laboratory results, pilot‐scale testing at the Saudi Arabian field site was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of enhanced aerobic biodegradation on a high temperature, saline petroleum hydrocarbon plume. Dissolved oxygen was delivered to the subsurface using a series of oxygen diffusion emitters installed perpendicular to groundwater flow, which created a reactive zone. Results obtained from the seven‐month field trial indicated that all the target compounds decreased with removal percentages varying between 33 percent for the trimethylbenzenes to greater than 80 percent for the BTEX compounds. MtBE decreased 40 percent on average whereas naphthalene was reduced 85 percent on average. Examination of the microbial population upgradient and downgradient of the emitter reactive zone suggested that the bacteria population went from an anaerobic, sulfate‐reducing dominated population to one dominated by a heterotrophic aerobic bacteria dominant population. These studies illustrate that field aerobic biodegradation may exceed expectations derived from simple laboratory microcosm experiments. Also, high salinity and elevated groundwater temperature do not appear to inhibit in situ aerobic biorestoration. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   
39.
An emplaced source of coal tar creosote within the sandy Borden research aquifer has documented the long-term (5140 days) natural attenuation for this complex mixture. Plumes of dissolved chemicals were produced by the essentially horizontal groundwater flowing at about 9 cm/day. Eleven chemicals have been extensively sampled seven times using a monitoring network of approximately 280, 14-point multilevel samplers. A model of source dissolution using Raoult's Law adequately predicted the dissolution of 9 of 11 compounds. Mass transformation has limited the extent of the plumes as groundwater has flowed more than 500 m, yet the plumes are no longer than 50 m. Phenol and xylenes have been removed and naphthalene has attenuated from its maximum extent on day 1357. Some compound plumes have reached an apparent steady state and the plumes of other compounds (dibenzofuran and phenanthrene) are expected to continue to expand due to an increasing mass flux and limited degradation potential. Biotransformation is the major process controlling natural attenuation at the site. The greatest organic mass lost is associated with the high solubility compounds. However, the majority of the mass loss for most compounds has occurred in the source zone. Oxygen is the main electron acceptor, yet the amount of organics lost cannot be accounted for by aerobic mineralization or partial mineralization alone. The complex evolution of these plumes has been well documented but understanding the controlling biotransformation processes is still elusive. This study has shown that anticipating bioattenuation patterns should only be considered at the broadest scale. Generally, the greatest mass loss is associated with those compounds that have a high solubility and low partitioning coefficients.  相似文献   
40.
The amount of genetic structure in marine invertebrates is often thought to be negatively correlated with larval duration. However, larval retention may increase genetic structure in species with long-lived planktonic larvae, and rafting provides a means of dispersal for species that lack a larval dispersal phase. We compared genetic structure, demographic histories and levels of gene flow of regional lineages (in most cases defined by biogeographic region) of five southern African coastal invertebrates with three main types of larval development: (1) dispersal by long-lived planktonic larvae (mudprawn Upogebia africana and brown mussel Perna perna), (2) abbreviated larval development (crown crab Hymenosoma orbiculare) and (3) direct development (estuarine isopod Exosphaeroma hylecoetes and estuarine cumacean Iphinoe truncata). We hypothesized that H. orbiculare, having abbreviated larval development, would employ a strategy of larval retention, resulting in genetic structure comparable to that of the direct developers rather than the planktonic dispersers. However, regional population structure was significantly lower in all species with planktonic larvae, including H. orbiculare, than in the direct developers. Moreover, nested clade analysis identified demographic histories resulting from low levels of gene flow (isolation by distance and allopatric fragmentation) in the direct developers only, and migration rates were significantly higher in all three species having planktonic larvae than in the direct developers. We conclude that the amount of genetic structure within marine biogeographic regions strongly depends on the presence or absence of free-swimming larvae. Whether such larvae are primarily exported or retained, whether they have long or short larval duration, and whether or not they are capable of active dispersal seems to have little effect on connectivity among populations.  相似文献   
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